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Michael Collins

Michael Collins is an investment specialist at Magellan. Since 2000, Michael has worked as an investment specialist/commentator for money managers, AMP Capital, IOOF/Perennial, Barclays Global Investors (now BlackRock) and Fidelity International.

Funds / Markets

Scarcity Becomes Common

June 17, 2022June 17, 2022 - by Michael Collins

Magellan’s Michael Collins looks at the current mess involving goods scarcity and explains why he believes the impediments to supply are likely to last and disrupt growth and provoke inflation.

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Funds / Markets

Record Inflation Could Trigger a Fresh Eurozone Crisis

June 2, 2022June 2, 2022 - by Michael Collins

As Magellan’s Michael Collins writes, any inflationary crunch in the Eurozone would centre on Italy, have no obvious solution and remind that the euro’s frailties are unaddressed.

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Biotechnology / Funds / Markets

Superbugs Are Outsmarting Antibiotics

April 28, 2022April 28, 2022 - by Michael Collins

As Magellan Investment Specialist Michael Collins explains, a market failure means pharmaceutical companies are failing to address the threat of increasingly drug-resistant “Superbugs”.

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Economics / Funds / Markets

Powell Seeking to Rid the US of Inflation Without Shedding Jobs

April 19, 2022 - by Michael Collins

Fed Chair Jay Powell is looking for some sort of ‘immaculate disinflation’. His problem? Monetary policy is ill-suited to fight inflation arising from supply constraints.

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Funds / Markets

Central Banks Going Green to Questionable Avail

April 1, 2022March 31, 2022 - by Michael Collins

As Magellan Investment Specialist Michael Collins argues, a loss of autonomy to fight inflation is just one of the dangers of the central banks’ current course of action.

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Economics / Funds / Interest Rates / Markets

Another Era of Quantitative Tightening Beckons

March 17, 2022March 17, 2022 - by Michael Collins

The first era of quantitative tightening fizzled. Magellan Investment Specialist Michael Collins wonders if asset-selling – aka money destroying – can help fight inflation this time?

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Funds / Markets

The Pandemic Has Changed the Future of Work

February 16, 2022February 16, 2022 - by Michael Collins

Remote work is ensconced. A ‘Great Resignation’ is underway in the US. As Magellan Investment Specialist Michael Collins explains in this article, neither might last.

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Economics / Funds / Markets

How High Can Government Debt-to-GDP Ratios Soar?

January 17, 2022January 17, 2022 - by Michael Collins

Somewhere a ceiling exists. But, as Magellan Investment Specialist Michael Collins argues, trouble is brewing, especially in the eurozone and emerging countries.

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Funds / Technology

What the NFT is the Metaverse?

December 1, 2021December 1, 2021 - by Michael Collins

The “Metaverse” has recently leapt to prominence. Magellan’s Michael Collins argues that this touted ‘embodied internet’ might take a while to arrive and underwhelm when it does.

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Commodities / ESG / Funds / Hydrogen / Markets

Green Hydrogen Central to Net Zero Plans

November 19, 2021November 19, 2021 - by Michael Collins

Plenty of countries are hyping “Green” Hydrogen as a key pathway to net-zero emissions. But for that to happen, Magellan’s Michael Collins argues, a cost disadvantage needs to be overcome first.

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Fixed Interest / Funds / Markets

‘Reaching for Yield’ into Corporate Debt Takes On a Risky Hue

October 18, 2021October 18, 2021 - by Michael Collins

Covid and its associated consequences have forced many businesses to survive on debt, not economic viability. This, as Magellan’s Michael Collins argues, increases the risk of broader financial instability.

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Funds / Markets / Technology

Ransomware is So Rife it’s a Threat to National Security

October 8, 2021October 8, 2021 - by Michael Collins

Magellan Investment Specialist Michael Collins argues that cracking down on cryptocurrencies might ruin the risk-reward calculation for the criminals behind the proliferation of ransomware.

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Funds / Markets / Technology

Space Exploration is Going Private

September 24, 2021September 24, 2021 - by Michael Collins

The commercialisation of space comes with unknown promise but known risks. Magellan Investment Specialist Michael Collins has a look at why those involved aren’t so easily deterred.

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Funds / Markets / Technology

Big Tech’s Success Incites a Backlash

August 12, 2021August 12, 2021 - by Michael Collins

Many think the internet giants are too big for society’s good. But even a rethink of competition policy along such lines is unlikely to curb the largest platforms. Magellan’s Michael Collins with more.

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Funds / Markets

Lessons from Covid-19

July 23, 2021July 23, 2021 - by Michael Collins

Magellan’s Michael Collins writes that, among the many messages Covid has given us, is the notable one that competence matters during emergencies, but is hard to achieve.

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ESG / Funds / Markets / Technology

Electric Vehicles Are the Next Revolution in Automobiles

July 9, 2021July 9, 2021 - by Michael Collins

Electric Vehicles are the next revolution in automobiles, but Magellan’s Michael Collins believes problems need to be overcome to hasten the switch and cement the climate benefits.

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Funds / Markets / Technology

Major Countries Are Pondering Issuing Digital National Currencies

June 8, 2021June 8, 2021 - by Michael Collins

Is a watershed reengineering of money underway? Magellan Asset Management Investment Specialist Michael Collins shares his thoughts on the subject.

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Funds / Markets

China’s Dual Circulation Plan for a Hostile World

May 31, 2021 - by Michael Collins

Domestic production gets priority in a strategy that seeks to boost China’s ‘soft power’, writes Magellan Asset Management Investment Specialist Michael Collins.

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Markets / Technology

The Catch-22 that Grants Platforms Unique Legal Immunities

May 12, 2021May 12, 2021 - by Michael Collins

But efforts to rein in the US-based CDA section 230 protections pose dilemmas that prevent watershed action. Magellan’s Michael Collins explains why.

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Economics / Funds / Markets / Politics

Biden Revving a US Economy Already Enjoying a Vaccine-Inspired Recovery

April 23, 2021April 23, 2021 - by Michael Collins

Might his emergency stimulus revive inflation?

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Currencies / Funds / Markets

Germany Seems Poised to Only Ever Do the Minimum to Support the Euro

February 10, 2021February 10, 2021 - by Michael Collins

Public disgruntlement stops Berlin cementing a currency union that helps make the country an export dynamo, writes Magellan’s Michael Collins.

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Funds / Markets / Technology

The Pivotal Fight between China and the US is Over the Microchip

January 15, 2021January 15, 2021 - by Michael Collins

The campaign for dominance in semiconductors could hurt both countries.

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Markets / Politics

Japan has trailblazed on economic stimulus, to not much avail

December 8, 2020December 8, 2020 - by Michael Collins

Will Japan under Suga try the reflationary option Abe didn’t?

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Markets / Politics

Brexit Talks Are About How Abrupt The Final Break Will Be

November 5, 2020November 6, 2020 - by Michael Collins

No option removes the existential threats to the UK stirred by its EU departure.

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Economics / Interest Rates / Markets

Super Low Interest Rates Come With Side Effects

October 15, 2020November 6, 2020 - by Michael Collins

Ultra-loose monetary policy could even be counterproductive for economies.

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Markets

The US Senate Result Could Reverberate For Decades

September 15, 2020September 15, 2020 - by Michael Collins

Any quest to alter the constitutional order would be more proof of how primary contests are destabilising US politics.

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Economics / Strategy

A Coming Political Fight Due To The Pandemic? Intergenerational Equity.

July 29, 2020July 29, 2020 - by Michael Collins

The young will want to be compensated for protecting the elderly from COVID-19. But their quest will come with risks.

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Economics / Markets / Retail

China, Rather Than The US, Could Soon Be The World’s ‘Consumer Of Last Resort’

July 15, 2020 - by Michael Collins

To earn that status, China must avoid a ‘trap’ among other challenges

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Economics

The Populations Of Key Countries Are Shrinking

June 17, 2020June 17, 2020 - by Michael Collins

This new, yet largely ignored, trend comes with underrated economic and social costs.

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Markets

Apps, Backed By ‘Dark Kitchens’, Are Changing Food Delivery

June 3, 2020June 3, 2020 - by Michael Collins

Even though the platform attack is hobbled by poor economics, restaurants are under threat – especially during a pandemic.

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Economics / Markets

The Psychological Effects Of The Pandemic Are Likely Already Huge

May 15, 2020July 1, 2020 - by Michael Collins

These social, political, and economic changes can be grouped into four categories; new, accelerated, busted, and possible trends.

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Economics

The Coronavirus Is Tearing At The Fragilities Of Italy And The Eurozone

May 1, 2020May 1, 2020 - by Michael Collins

Solutions to appease the crisis face political hurdles. A default or euro exit are possible.

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Markets

COVID-19 Is Posing Ethical Challenges For Policymakers

April 14, 2020April 14, 2020 - by Michael Collins

The dilemma can be framed as lives versus livelihoods; at its most pointed, lives versus lives.

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Technology

Quantum Computing Would Be A World-Changing Technological Leap

February 20, 2020February 26, 2020 - by Michael Collins

But a breakthrough in sub-atomic computing might be a while off.

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Technology

Technology Is Reshaping Modern Medicine

January 17, 2020January 17, 2020 - by Michael Collins

But ethical and economic challenges could limit the benefits medtech brings to healthcare.

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Markets

The Gig Economy Is Facing A Crackdown

December 5, 2019December 5, 2019 - by Michael Collins

Policymakers are cooling to a business model that lowers wages and skirts regulations.

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Economics / Interest Rates

US Policymakers Learnt In 1937 That Cutting Stimulus Can Lead To A Recession

November 15, 2019November 15, 2019 - by Michael Collins

But prolonging a recovery with stimulus could lead to a worse slump later.

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Markets / Technology

The ‘Streaming Wars’ Could Penalise Viewers

October 16, 2019October 17, 2019 - by Michael Collins

Signs have emerged that Netflix’s dominance is weakening even before the new competition lands. And it’s likely to get tougher for Netflix and others when the Hollywood household names arrive.

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Markets

Central Banks Risk Seeing Their Feted ‘Independence’ Watered Down

September 12, 2019October 16, 2019 - by Michael Collins

Their autonomy will prove superfluous in a low-inflation, stagnant world.

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Technology

A Privately Issued Digital Currency Could One Day Deserve ‘Reserve’ Status

August 23, 2019August 23, 2019 - by Michael Collins

Such are the prospects for mainstream acceptance for something like Facebook’s Libra. But the hurdles are daunting too.

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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORT

4Q reveals more focus on profit and cash flow

• LBY’s 4Q FY22 quarterly activities update showed continued solid growth in top line metrics, albeit slowing, with GMV of NZ$203m (+26% on pcp) and income of NZ$12.1m (+23% on pcp).
• Net Transaction Margin (NTM) disappointed at -0.5%, due to further increase in credit losses from 4.0% to 4.9% of GMV. However, new fraud and credit risk management tools have seen losses recover materially with NTM back to 1.2% in March and LBY is confident of further recovery in coming months.

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    Signs MOU with Ford Company – Kachi is now sold out!

    Lake Resources (LKE. ASX) – LKE has signed two non-binding MOU’s in the space of 10 days. Ford Company (Ford) has signed an MOU for ~25,000t/year and last week Hanwa, a Japanese commodity trader signed a MOU for up to 25,000t/year. Subject to execution, this is an amazing feat as Ford and Hanwa are prepared to enter into longer-term strategic partnerships with LKE. Commercial negotiations are still ongoing but are expected, especially if Ford & Hanwa inject new equity into LKE, to further de-risk the project financing & thus ensure LKE and Kachi are fully funded.

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      Strategic Vanadium-battery growth with Titanium & Iron earnings resiliency

      TNG Ltd is an ASX-listed technology owner and developer of the world-class Mount Peake near-surface vanadiferous titanomagnetite deposit. To unlock value, TNG will concentrate ore from its central Northern Territory mine for processing through its patented TIVAN® process produce three premium quality revenue streams: hi-purity vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) for steel alloys and Vanadium Redox Flow batteries, a quality titanium pigment for paints and a premium steel input with >64%Fe iron ore fines.

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        Promising exploration and development update while SOP prices continue to rise

        Two recent gravity surveys have considerably exceeded expectations and revealed potential for extensions to the existing MRE at Lake Throssell, plus a material growth opportunity at Lake Yeo. This reinforces the potential for a multi-decade, Tier-1 SOP production hub based around Lake Throssell.

        TMG is currently completing work towards the PFS due early 2023, including drilling to start in Q3 2022, evaporation trials and permitting activities. Results from these programs will support the PFS and any future resource upgrade.

        Benchmark SOP prices have risen to ~US$940/t due to recent geopolitical developments. The Oct 2021 Scoping Study assumed a SOP price of US$550/t and contained a sensitivity analysis showing every 10% increase in price drives a +$144m increase in the project NPV of $364m. The c.70% increase above the Scoping Study thus implies a project NPV of ~$1.4bn.

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          Biopharmas Hit, but Buying Opportunities Created

          The news being reported about the performance of biotechnology has been dour, to say the least, for some time now. Those dour articles have been deserved with the iShares Biotechnology Exchange-Traded Fund down 25% and the SPDR® S&P® Biotech ETF is down 45% from their highs. However, those articles are backward-looking, and successful investors need to be looking forward.

          Recently, however, an article in Nature Reviews Drug Discovery caught our eye which we believe should point the way forward for the vast majority of Australian biotechnology investors. This article indicates that, at least, two companies, Antisense Therapeutics (ANP) and Kazia Therapeutics (KZA), are right in the sweet spot in terms of the future of drug development.

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            Biopharmas Hit, but Buying Opportunities Created

            The news being reported about the performance of biotechnology has been dour, to say the least, for some time now. Those dour articles have been deserved with the iShares Biotechnology Exchange-Traded Fund down 25% and the SPDR® S&P® Biotech ETF is down 45% from their highs. However, those articles are backward-looking, and successful investors need to be looking forward.

            Recently, however, an article in Nature Reviews Drug Discovery caught our eye which we believe should point the way forward for the vast majority of Australian biotechnology investors. This article indicates that, at least, two companies, Antisense Therapeutics (ANP) and Kazia Therapeutics (KZA), are right in the sweet spot in terms of the future of drug development.

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              Coal prices up, debt down – It’s payback time

              Strong 1H22 but the real story unfolds in 2H22.

              TerraCom made two announcements to the ASX on the 28th February – the first was their 2021 Half Year 2021 result which indicated that TER continues to report strong operating metrics as well as enjoying buoyant thermal coal markets which is allowing them to pay down debt at an accelerated pace.

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                Hitting goals – Making four material announcements

                We initiated on Magnis Energy Technologies (MNS.ASX) in December 2021 and since then, MNS has made four material announcements. Firstly; a conditional offtake contract for 600,000t of graphite concentrate from the Tanzanian Nachu Project (net 100%) was signed with Traxys, a global
                commodities merchant with annual revenue of ~US$6Bn; secondly; semi autonomous production has started at battery gigafactory iM3NY, thirdly;
                exciting Extra Fast Charge battery tests were reported and most recently, the game changing launch of the Lithium Slim Energy Reserve battery platform, which supports C4V’s growing EFC capability.

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                  Increasing our Target

                  Despite the lower realised oil and gas price, which fell by 5.4% and 19.7% respectively in August, Calima managed to show improvement in its key business metrics.

                  We expect higher production in November due to the contribution by the new Thorsby wells which will be drilled in August/September which will see Calima meet its 2021 production guidance of 4,500 boe/d.

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                    Emerging Financial Wealth Advisory Group

                    WT Financial Group Limited (WTL) is a growing diversified financial services company, founded in 2010 and listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) in 2015. Its advice and product offerings are delivered primarily through a group of independent financial advisers operating as authorised representatives of WTL under its Wealth Today Pty Ltd (Wealth Today) and Sentry Group Pty Ltd (Sentry Group) dealer group operations. It has around 275 advisers across more than 200 financial advice practices Australia-wide. It also operates a direct-to-consumer operation under its Spring Financial Group brand.

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                      Immutep Taking the Fight to Cancer

                      In May 2021, Corporate Connect analyst Marc Sinatra published a comprehensive research report on ASX-listed biotech Immutep Ltd (ASX: IMM). So impressed was he with IMM that Corporate Connect felt it imperative that a follow-up report be released placing a valuation on the company, because the market was not seeing the vast potential of eftilagimod alpha (efti).

                      This follow-up report has been released today. Using comparables, after adding cash back to their EV estimate and dividing by the total number of issued shares, Corporate Connect now places the fair value of an Immutep share at $A2.20.

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                        Phillips 66 to acquire 16% in NVX – 12-month target price rises 7% through project de-risking

                        Phillips 66 (PSX) has entered into an agreement with NVX to acquire 77.9m new shares for US$150m (A$203m). PSX is the worlds largest producer of speciality petroleum coke a precursor for battery grade synthetic graphite anode materials found with an Enterprise Value of US$47.5Bn and assets of US$57Bn.

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                          Market leading lifelong learning platform technology company in Australia and SE Asia

                          PayGroup (PYG) delivers multi-country BPO services and cloud SaaS HCM solutions, assisting companies to manage employees in multiple, complex jurisdictions. The company has many growth opportunities, including new clients, new jurisdictions, new products, partner expansion, and new revenue sources. PYG’s scalable business model allows operating leverage and with savings from in-housing third party technology, support margin expansion.

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                            Market leading lifelong learning platform technology company in Australia and SE Asia

                            OpenLearning (OLL) is a higher education technology company that operates a scalable online learning platform through a software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model and provides a global marketplace of high quality courses for learners of all levels. Its primary customers are education providers based in Australia and South-East Asia (primarily Malaysia). OLL started operations in Australia in 2012 and expanded to Malaysia in 2015, Singapore in 2018, and recently also Indonesia.

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