Dovish Fed Chair Restarts Wall Street Rally
The chances of a US rate cut seem to have improved sharply after the first of two appearances before US Congress by US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell.
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Bumper US Jobs Report Dims US Rate Cut Hopes
You can rule out an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of this month after the much stronger than expected jobs performance of the US economy in June.
Read MoreMay Retail Sales Soft As Job Vacancies Also Slow
More confirmation that the Australian economy continues to drift towards the edge of a slide with a weak retail sales reading for May and the first fall in job vacancies for over a year.
Read MoreRBA Takes Rates To Record Low Of 1%
More rate cuts are on the cards from the Reserve Bank after the central bank cut its cash rate by 0.25% for the second month in a row.
Read MoreSydney, Melbourne House Prices Rise Ahead Of RBA Meeting
The Reserve Bank monetary policy meeting in Darwin today will have a tiny bit of good news to consider (and ignore) – the slide in house prices again slowed last month with small rises being recorded in Sydney and Melbourne for the first time 21 months.
Read MoreTo Cut Or Not To Cut? Focus Returns To The RBA
The possibility of a rate cut from the Reserve Bank tomorrow and the usual start of month data for May on trade, building approvals, and retail sales will hold the attention of local markets at the start of the 2019-20 financial year.
Read MoreRBNZ Mirrors RBA, Maintains Easing Bias
It seems Australia and NZ central banks are lockstep on monetary policy after the latest statement from across the Tasman.
Read MoreDon’t Fight The Fed…Or The ECB Or RBA
This decade has now seen three global growth scares – around 2011-12, 2015-16 and now since last year. Each have been associated with softening business conditions indicators (or PMIs) as indicated in the next chart – see the circled areas.
Read MoreRBA Boss Pushes Government To Support Growth
Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe has made it clear he wants the federal and state governments to help monetary policy lift the Australian economy, wages and keep employment buoyant.
Read MoreFed Takes Watch & Wait Stance On US Rates
It wasn’t quite what financial markets had wanted from the Fed – a sort of watch and wait stance with a more obvious bias towards a rate cut, but no rate cut or hint of any timing. Markets wanted more definite news on the timing of a rate cut.
Read MoreA$ Teeters On 10-Year Low Following Dovish RBA Minutes
The Australian dollar fell sharply yesterday to levels not seen since the dying months of the GFC in 2009 after the Reserve Bank’s June board meeting minutes made it clear there would be more rate cuts to come.
Read MoreAustralian Growth Will Be Constrained But Here’s Nine Reasons Why Recession Is Unlikely
Several positives suggest recession is unlikely: the current account deficit has collapsed; the $A helps stabilise the economy; the drag from falling mining investment is over; there is scope for extra fiscal stimulus; infrastructure spending is booming; there has been no sign of panic property selling; economic policy remains sensible; population growth remains strong; and the RBA can still do more.
Read MoreThe $A Still Has More Downside, But A Lot Of The Weakness Is Behind Us
Given the downside risks for the $A and that being short the $A is a good hedge against threats to the global outlook it still makes sense for Australian investors to maintain a decent exposure to foreign currency via un-hedged global investments.
Read MoreRBA Cuts Rates To A New Record Low
The RBA’s latest rate cut is aimed at heading off a further slowing in growth which would threaten higher unemployment and lower for longer inflation. For investors, it means low-interest rates for even longer.
Read MoreWall Street Soars As Powell Points To US Rate Cuts
Wall Street shares have surged after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signalled the central bank was open to possible rate cuts later this year.
Read MoreRBA Boss Warns Banks On Undermining The Economy
ANZ and Westpac failed to pass on the full 0.25% cut from the Reserve Bank to its mortgage customers and immediately faced pressure from the central bank.
Read MoreThe Data Behind The RBA Decision
The problems in the Australian economy were on full display yesterday, helping explain the RBA rate cut and the sluggish GDP reported later today.
Read MoreRBA Cuts Interest Rates To Historic Low
As expected the Reserve Bank cut official interest rates to a new record low of 1.25% on Tuesday (down 0.25%) in an attempt to stimulate a sluggish economy.
Read MoreOz House Prices Slide Continues To Shallow Out
The Reserve Bank may be tempted to delay its second rate cut after the May house price data showed another month of stabilising, but other data yesterday left the picture of the economy as confused it has been in recent months.
Read MoreOz GDP, RBA Rate Cut In Focus
Two big events this week will set the parameters for the Australian economy for the rest of the year. The RBA will cut rates tomorrow and on Wednesday the first quarter GDP figures will show that it was a booming market for commodities, especially iron ore and LNG that kept the economy on track.
Read MoreRBA Boss Confirms Easing Bias Ahead Of June Meeting
A cut in official interest rates is on the cards after Reserve Bank governor, Philip Lowe made it clear the central bank’s attempts to lift inflation and cut unemployment will not be met on current policy settings.
Read MoreRBA Flags Two Rate Cuts, Downgrades Outlook
Australia will get two interest rate cuts this year totaling 0.50%, according to the second Statement of Monetary Policy for 2019 from the Reserve Bank.
Read MoreRBNZ Cuts Interest Rates
The Reserve Bank of NZ blinked first and has cut its official cash rate by a quarter of a point to 1.50% at which level it is now on par with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s key rate.
Read MoreRBA Holds Firm Ahead Of Federal Polls
No rate cut from the Reserve Bank as it sat on its hands at the May meeting yesterday, meaning there will be no change to rates in the current federal election campaign.
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Diary: RBA Decision, China Trade, US CPI
The ‘will they or won’t they’ speculation about the Reserve Bank cutting interest rates at its May monetary policy board meeting tomorrow will dominate this week in Australia.
Read MoreInflation Concerns Keep “Patient” Fed On Hold
While the US Federal Reserve maintained its ‘wait’ and see’ stance on interest rates at this week’s two-day meeting in Washington, it revealed concerns about the slowing growth of inflation as it described the American economic activity and job gains as “solid”.
Read MoreInflation Undershoots – Why It’s A Concern & What It Means For Investors?
Surprisingly weak Australian inflation has led to expectations the Reserve Bank will soon cut rates. But what’s driving low inflation? Is it really that bad? Why not just lower the inflation target? Will rate cuts help? And what does it mean for investors?
Read MoreHeadline Q1 GDP Masks Soft Underbelly Of US Growth
The first quarter GDP report, released on Friday suggests the American economy is not as solid as the 3.2% annual rate of growth suggests.
Read MoreBenign Inflation Read Opens Door For Early Rate Cut
While the RBA has made it clear the strength of the jobs market and its intersection with weak GDP remains its major area of interest, the sharp fall in consumer price inflation in the first three months of this year adds to the central bank’s policy dilemma.
Read MoreInflation Read Set To RBA Resolve
Today (Wednesday) sees the release of the first top tier economic report for the March quarter – the consumer inflation data (CPI) – ahead of the release of the first quarter GDP figures in early June.
Read MoreRBA Hints At Rate Cut, But Jobs Remain Key
The Reserve Bank of Australia has given another hint yet at a possible interest rate cut later this year – but made it clear it won’t happen if the jobs market remains solid, something we will find out tomorrow in the March Labour Force data to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Read MoreThe 2019 Australian Federal Election And Investors
Labor’s higher tax and regulation agenda may be a negative for Australian assets, but this could be partly offset in the short term by more targeted fiscal stimulus.
Read MoreThe 2019-20 Australian Budget – The Long-Awaited Surplus & The Promise Of More Tax Cuts Ahead
The 2019-20 Budget has a sensible focus on providing support to households at the same time as returning the budget to surplus. However, the actual fiscal stimulus is pretty modest – particularly for a pre-election budget – and comes with greater than normal uncertainty given the upcoming election.
Read MoreOz Economy Set For Health Check As Slowdown Worries Persist
In Australia this week will be all about iron ore prices, interest rates, a federal budget and the timing of the May federal election plus the usual start of month economic data.
Read MoreRBNZ Releases The Doves
The Reserve Bank of NZ has shifted ground in its monetary policy stance dramatically, sending a strong tip that the next move in rates will be down.
Read MoreFed Unmoved On Rates & Sees No Lift In 2019
A slower economy will see the US Federal Reserve sit on interest rates this year and start slowing the reduction of its huge balance sheet in May.
Read MoreAnxiety Grows Inside “Uncertain” RBA
The Reserve Bank is now closer to a rate cut at any time since the last round in mid-2016 – the last was August of that year to the current cash rate of 1.5%.
Read MoreWhat Can We Expect From The Fed?
The US Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at its two-day meeting this week, but market attention will be on new forecasts from the central bank, especially to so-called dot plot.
Read MoreHome Lending Demand Dries Up
January lending data yesterday from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed Reserve Bank figures at the end of February – demand and deals with investors have dried up, lending to owner-occupiers is slowing but loans to business are rising.
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