Fed Unmoved On Rates & Sees No Lift In 2019
A slower economy will see the US Federal Reserve sit on interest rates this year and start slowing the reduction of its huge balance sheet in May.
Read MoreInterest Rates
Anxiety Grows Inside “Uncertain” RBA
The Reserve Bank is now closer to a rate cut at any time since the last round in mid-2016 – the last was August of that year to the current cash rate of 1.5%.
Read MoreWhat Can We Expect From The Fed?
The US Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at its two-day meeting this week, but market attention will be on new forecasts from the central bank, especially to so-called dot plot.
Read MoreHome Lending Demand Dries Up
January lending data yesterday from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed Reserve Bank figures at the end of February – demand and deals with investors have dried up, lending to owner-occupiers is slowing but loans to business are rising.
Read MoreAustralia Slides Into A “Per Capita Recession”
Australian growth slowed even more in the December quarter. Growth may bounce back a bit this year, but the housing downturn will likely constrain it to around 2- 2.5%.
Read MoreWeak GDP Underscores Neutral RBA
Just to make it clear there won’t be an interest rate rise in Australia this year and probably most if not all of 2020 as well – especially not after the second weak quarter of economic growth in a row.
Read MoreRBA Happy In Neutral Despite “Challenging” Household Consumption
No change in rates from the Reserve Bank yesterday, now for what’s expected to be a weak GDP figure from the December quarter national accounts to be released later this morning.
Read MoreBuoyant Business Investment Defies Broader Downturn
Figures out yesterday confirmed not only are Australian companies spending more on investment, but the outlook is the strongest for three years.
Read MoreIs A Yield Crunch Coming? Buy Transurban & Select REITS
I strongly believe there is a massive yield crunch coming in Australia. We saw it post GFC in the US, and in the local slowdown this cycle it will surface here too.
Read MoreStronger Jobs Data To Keep The RBA At Bay
The threat of an interest cut from the Reserve Bank has been held at bay for a few more months after a better than expected jobs performance in January that belied the wider gloom about the economy and key sectors such as retailing.
Read MoreFive Charts & A Table That Are Critical To Watch
Five key global charts to watch as to whether this will be the case are: global business conditions PMIs; global inflation; the US yield curve; the US dollar; and global trade growth.
Read MoreChinese Inflation Evaporates In January
More evidence that the pace of economic activity in China – especially in manufacturing – is weakening.
Read MoreRBNZ Adopts Similar Stance To The RBA On Rates
The Reserve Bank of NZ has left its key Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 1.75% and says it expects to maintain this level for at least the next two years.
Read MoreNAB Economists Shift View On Rates
Despite a small improvement in business conditions in January after December’s sharp fall and a small improvement in business confidence, the National Australia Bank has had significant change of heart and is now forecasting that the Reserve Bank will leave rates on hold for a long time – well into next decade – but with a rate cut not out of the question.
Read MoreTrade Data Detail Supports RBA’s Case For Optimism
The seasonally adjusted trade surplus for December of more than $3.6 billion was the second largest ever and moreover, Australia notched up a trade surplus in every month of 2018 – the first time every that has been achieved.
Read MoreRBA Walks Back Growth Outlook, Rate Cut Now 50/50
The Reserve Bank of Australia has revealed it has made a major change in its monetary policy stance, with a cut in the cash rate now even money bet.
Read MoreRBA Holds Steady Despite Slowdown Risks
Rates have now been on hold at the record low for 30 months straight, but financial markets are starting predicting the next rate move is more likely to be a cut than a hike as declining house prices impact on household spending.
Read MoreHousing, Jobs Data Soft Ahead Of RBA Meeting
The Reserve Bank board will find one or two points of interest from yesterday’s data releases at its first meeting today, but it won’t change the policy stance of no move in rates for the time being.
Read More‘Patient’ Fed Leaves US Rates On Hold
The chances for more rate rises in the US this year have been reduced dramatically after a change of heart by the US Federal Reserve.
Read MoreAustralian Housing Q&A With Shane Oliver
A Q&A on the Australian housing downturn: what’s driving home prices down; how far will they fall; what’s the impact on the economy.
Read MoreThe Fed And Market Turmoil
A more cautious Fed should provide some support for markets although more falls are possible into early next year before markets bottom and head higher as investors realise the US/global economy is not going into recession soon.
Read MoreWall St Reverses After Fed Raises Rates
The US Federal Reserve has defied President Donald Trump and lifted its key interest rate for a 4th time this year – but suggested strongly that it might cut the number of increases next year to just two.
Read MoreBig GDP Miss Fuels Rate Cut Speculation
Australia’s September quarter GDP has disappointed expectations by a long way, slowing sharply to just 0.3% from the June quarter (when it grew 0.9%), and well below expectations for a 0.6% rise.
Read MoreRBA Ends 2018 Where It Began
The Reserve Bank of Australia has once again kept its key interest rate unchanged at the record low of 1.5%.
Read MoreDebt, Wages, Trade On Annual RBA Worry List
The list of issues concerning the country’s top economic policymakers narrowed in 2017-18 to just three, two of which are hangovers from preceding years, according to comments by RBA Governor, Phillip Lowe.
Read MoreQE In Europe & Reporting Season Wrap
European QE is finally here – better late than never. Importantly, Mario Draghi has left the door open to “do whatever it takes” as far as quantum goes. Euro currency debasement will likely be a feature for several years to restore competitiveness.
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