Overnight: Day By Day
The Fed is not on a pre-set course, but it’s ready to act again after last night’s cut. Dow up 36.
Read MoreInterest Rates
Divided US Fed Cuts Interest Rates
The US Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 1.75% to 2% early Thursday, Sydney time but left some confusion in markets as the key policy-making board split on the decision.
Read MoreRBA Minutes Reveal Strong Easing Bias
The RBA is watching events offshore closely and continues to keep the door open to further domestic easing against a backdrop of weak consumption and low wages.
Read More“Worried” NAB Economists Forecast 0.25% Cash Rate
A day after its August business survey confirmed a further slowing in the pace of activity in key parts of the Australian economy, the National Australia Bank has added another rate cut forecast to its outlook.
Read MoreRBA Maintains Easing Bias Awaiting More Evidence
As expected by the market, the Reserve Bank (RBA) kept its key cash rate steady at 1.0% in September. The bank retained an easing bias in the accompanying policy statement from Governor Phil Lowe and again indicated a willingness to cut the cash rate again should the need arise.
Read MoreNegative Rates, QE & Other Measures The RBA May Deploy
Unconventional monetary policy measures could help the economy, but negative interest rates are unlikely and quantitative easing would be most effective and fairest if combined with fiscal stimulus.
Read MoreRBA On Hold But Maintains Easing Bias
As expected the Reserve Bank left its key cash rate on hold at 1% at the August monetary policy meeting yesterday but that doesn’t mean further rate cuts are out of the question.
Read MoreAustralian Bond Yields Sink To Record Low
The RBA statement and their at times dovish tone saw the yield on the 10-year bond yield dip to another all-time low of 1.04%.
Read MoreThe Fed Cuts Rates
We expect another one or two 0.25% cuts with the next in September but with US recession unlikely this rate-cutting cycle is likely to be limited. Fed and global monetary easing generally should help boost global growth into next year.
Read MoreFed Cuts US Interest Rates
“Uncertainties” stemming from weakness in the global economy and simmering trade tensions have seen the US Federal Reserve cut its main interest rate by 0.25% for the first time since the GFC.
Read MoreInflation Sputters Along On Petrol Prices
Nothing in the inflation data for the three months to June that would cause the Reserve Bank to change its approach to monetary policy.
Read MoreInflation Data To Reinforce Low, Lower Rates
The June quarter and 2018-19 inflation outcomes will be out this week and with the RBA already making very clear that further rate cuts are on the cards, the data will confirm that inflation remains too low for the central bank.
Read MoreWhat Negative Interest Rates Mean To You
As more and more bond yields continue to head to zero and below around the world, the more it will drag every other yield as well.
Read MoreDovish Fed Chair Restarts Wall Street Rally
The chances of a US rate cut seem to have improved sharply after the first of two appearances before US Congress by US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell.
Read MoreBumper US Jobs Report Dims US Rate Cut Hopes
You can rule out an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of this month after the much stronger than expected jobs performance of the US economy in June.
Read MoreMay Retail Sales Soft As Job Vacancies Also Slow
More confirmation that the Australian economy continues to drift towards the edge of a slide with a weak retail sales reading for May and the first fall in job vacancies for over a year.
Read MoreRBA Takes Rates To Record Low Of 1%
More rate cuts are on the cards from the Reserve Bank after the central bank cut its cash rate by 0.25% for the second month in a row.
Read MoreSydney, Melbourne House Prices Rise Ahead Of RBA Meeting
The Reserve Bank monetary policy meeting in Darwin today will have a tiny bit of good news to consider (and ignore) – the slide in house prices again slowed last month with small rises being recorded in Sydney and Melbourne for the first time 21 months.
Read MoreTo Cut Or Not To Cut? Focus Returns To The RBA
The possibility of a rate cut from the Reserve Bank tomorrow and the usual start of month data for May on trade, building approvals, and retail sales will hold the attention of local markets at the start of the 2019-20 financial year.
Read MoreRBNZ Mirrors RBA, Maintains Easing Bias
It seems Australia and NZ central banks are lockstep on monetary policy after the latest statement from across the Tasman.
Read MoreDon’t Fight The Fed…Or The ECB Or RBA
While the risks are higher this time around, my inclination is still to see the current period as just another global growth scare like those in 2011-12 and 2015-16 which will give way to somewhat stronger growth globally and higher share markets on a six to 12 month view.
Read MoreRBA Boss Pushes Government To Support Growth
Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe has made it clear he wants the federal and state governments to help monetary policy lift the Australian economy, wages and keep employment buoyant.
Read MoreFed Takes Watch & Wait Stance On US Rates
It wasn’t quite what financial markets had wanted from the Fed – a sort of watch and wait stance with a more obvious bias towards a rate cut, but no rate cut or hint of any timing. Markets wanted more definite news on the timing of a rate cut.
Read MoreA$ Teeters On 10-Year Low Following Dovish RBA Minutes
The Australian dollar fell sharply yesterday to levels not seen since the dying months of the GFC in 2009 after the Reserve Bank’s June board meeting minutes made it clear there would be more rate cuts to come.
Read MoreAustralian Growth Will Be Constrained But Here’s Nine Reasons Why Recession Is Unlikely
Several positives suggest recession is unlikely: the current account deficit has collapsed; the $A helps stabilise the economy; the drag from falling mining investment is over; there is scope for extra fiscal stimulus; infrastructure spending is booming; there has been no sign of panic property selling; economic policy remains sensible; population growth remains strong; and the RBA can still do more.
Read MoreThe $A Still Has More Downside, But A Lot Of The Weakness Is Behind Us
Given the downside risks for the $A and that being short the $A is a good hedge against threats to the global outlook it still makes sense for Australian investors to maintain a decent exposure to foreign currency via un-hedged global investments.
Read MoreRBA Cuts Rates To A New Record Low
The RBA’s latest rate cut is aimed at heading off a further slowing in growth which would threaten higher unemployment and lower for longer inflation. For investors, it means low-interest rates for even longer.
Read MoreWall Street Soars As Powell Points To US Rate Cuts
Wall Street shares have surged after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signalled the central bank was open to possible rate cuts later this year.
Read MoreRBA Boss Warns Banks On Undermining The Economy
ANZ and Westpac failed to pass on the full 0.25% cut from the Reserve Bank to its mortgage customers and immediately faced pressure from the central bank.
Read MoreThe Data Behind The RBA Decision
The problems in the Australian economy were on full display yesterday, helping explain the RBA rate cut and the sluggish GDP reported later today.
Read MoreRBA Cuts Interest Rates To Historic Low
As expected the Reserve Bank cut official interest rates to a new record low of 1.25% on Tuesday (down 0.25%) in an attempt to stimulate a sluggish economy.
Read MoreOz House Prices Slide Continues To Shallow Out
The Reserve Bank may be tempted to delay its second rate cut after the May house price data showed another month of stabilising, but other data yesterday left the picture of the economy as confused it has been in recent months.
Read MoreOz GDP, RBA Rate Cut In Focus
Two big events this week will set the parameters for the Australian economy for the rest of the year. The RBA will cut rates tomorrow and on Wednesday the first quarter GDP figures will show that it was a booming market for commodities, especially iron ore and LNG that kept the economy on track.
Read MoreRBA Boss Confirms Easing Bias Ahead Of June Meeting
A cut in official interest rates is on the cards after Reserve Bank governor, Philip Lowe made it clear the central bank’s attempts to lift inflation and cut unemployment will not be met on current policy settings.
Read MoreRBA Flags Two Rate Cuts, Downgrades Outlook
Australia will get two interest rate cuts this year totaling 0.50%, according to the second Statement of Monetary Policy for 2019 from the Reserve Bank.
Read MoreRBNZ Cuts Interest Rates
The Reserve Bank of NZ blinked first and has cut its official cash rate by a quarter of a point to 1.50% at which level it is now on par with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s key rate.
Read MoreRBA Holds Firm Ahead Of Federal Polls
No rate cut from the Reserve Bank as it sat on its hands at the May meeting yesterday, meaning there will be no change to rates in the current federal election campaign.
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Diary: RBA Decision, China Trade, US CPI
The ‘will they or won’t they’ speculation about the Reserve Bank cutting interest rates at its May monetary policy board meeting tomorrow will dominate this week in Australia.
Read MoreInflation Concerns Keep “Patient” Fed On Hold
While the US Federal Reserve maintained its ‘wait’ and see’ stance on interest rates at this week’s two-day meeting in Washington, it revealed concerns about the slowing growth of inflation as it described the American economic activity and job gains as “solid”.
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