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Economics

Economics / Markets

NZ Reserve Bank Leaves Key Rate Unchanged

February 24, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

The Reserve bank of NZ has held its key interest rate steady and left other support measures unchanged after its latest monetary policy meeting at which it appears to have backed off moves to take rates negative.

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Economics / Markets

Static Oz Trade Surplus Belies Weak Underlying Figures

February 24, 2021February 24, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

Despite a drop in iron ore, meat and coal exports, Australia’s trade performance started 2021 strongly with a merchandise surplus of $8.754 billion in January, little changed from the $8.956 billion in December.

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Economics / Fixed Interest / Markets / Property / Shane Oliver / Strategy

Seven Things to Bear in Mind about the Australian Property Market

February 19, 2021February 18, 2021 - by Shane Oliver

Australian house prices are on the upswing again. In this week’s Insight’s column, AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver presents seven things to keep in mind when dealing in this trickiest of areas.

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Economics / Markets

Job Data Hints that Worst is Behind Us

February 18, 2021February 18, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

Normal service has been restored in the economy, judging by the January labour force figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics which showed another fall in the unemployment rate.

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Economics / Markets

Economics Wrap: the UK’s Annus Horribilis

February 14, 2021February 14, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

Growth in the UK economy slumped by record 9.9% in 2020, the biggest annual crash in output in more than 300 years.

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Economics / Markets

“Inflationistas” Crying Wolf on Price, Rate Rises

February 12, 2021February 12, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

For several months now American financial markets – well the more panicky and younger types – have been wetting themselves about inflation. The Fed, as it turns out, not so much.

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Economics / Funds / Markets

Recession Indicators: Jobless Claims a Key Labour Barometer

February 8, 2021February 9, 2021 - by ClearBridge Investments

The weak US December jobs report tells a somewhat more optimistic story than the headline figures suggest. ClearBridge Investments’ Jeff Schultze explains why.

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Economics / Markets / Retail

Retailers Make Hay While the Sun Shines

February 5, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

Retail sales volumes rose 2.5% in the December quarter 2020, seasonally adjusted, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Friday. This follows the 6.5% rise in the September quarter 2020.

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Economics / Funds / Markets

Australian Economic View – February 2021

February 5, 2021 - by Frank Uhlenbruch

Frank Uhlenbruch, Investment Strategist in the Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest team, provides his Australian economic analysis and market outlook.

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Economics / Markets

Record $72bn Oz Trade Surplus for 2020

February 4, 2021February 4, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

Australia recorded its highest ever yearly trade surplus in calendar 2020 of more than $72 billion, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

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Economics / Markets / Property

Housing Data Finishes 2020 in Fine Style

February 4, 2021February 4, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

Another boom month in what turned out to be a boom year for housing construction and finance. After COVID, who woulda thunk that?

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Economics / Fixed Interest / Interest Rates / Markets

Low(e) Rates to Persist, Says RBA Governor

February 3, 2021February 3, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

RBA Governor Philip Lowe sees the current record low level of interest rates of 0.10% and other support remaining in place until 2024 at least and possibly 2025.

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Economics / Fixed Interest / Interest Rates / Markets

Additional $100bn in QE the Only Surprise from the RBA

February 2, 2021February 2, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

The RBA kept official interest rates and the key bank lending support measure unchanged at its first meeting of the year, but surprised with news that it will boost its quantitative easing by another $100 billion in April.

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Economics / Markets / Property

RBA Set to Stand Pat on Strong Housing Hand

February 1, 2021February 3, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

News Monday that confirmed housing is booming with house prices starting 2021 on the up and housing finance ending 2020 very much on the up is unlikely to change thinking at the RBA for today’s first policy meeting of the year.

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Economics / Markets

Economics Wrap: All Eyes on the RBA

January 31, 2021January 31, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

Local markets will be watching the Reserve Bank closely this week for an update on how the country’s main economic policymakers view the coming year.

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Economics / Markets

Diary: US, China Release Key Economic Data

January 31, 2021January 31, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

The US shares the spotlight with China in the week ahead, with both countries reporting data that will likely set the scene in markets for the next few months.

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Commodities / Currencies / Economics / Funds / Interest Rates / Markets / Shane Oliver / Strategy

Seven Key Charts for Investors to Watch

January 29, 2021January 29, 2021 - by Shane Oliver

AMP Capital’s Dr Shane Oliver breaks down markets across the spectrum and around the globe in his weekly Insights column.

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Economics / Interest Rates / Markets

Benign Oz CPI Looks Set to Keep RBA Idle

January 27, 2021January 27, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

No concerns about rising inflation from the December Consumer Price Index data released yesterday, with the headline CPI rising 0.9% in the December 2020 quarter and by the same amount for the 2020 calendar year.

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Economics / Markets

IMF Optimism Confirmed by NAB Data

January 27, 2021January 27, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

The optimistic outlook for the Australian economy this year from the International Monetary Fund has been supported by the first business conditions and confidence survey for the year from the National Australia Bank.

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Economics / Markets

IMF Sees Aussie Economy Rebounding in 2021

January 27, 2021January 27, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

The IMF reckons the Australian economy will grow by enough in 2021 to regain its pre-COVID level by the end of the year before slowing in 2022.

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Economics / Markets

COVID Resurgence Drags South Korean GDP to 20-Year Low

January 26, 2021January 26, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

COVID saw the economy in South Korea – one of Australia’s top five export destinations with products dominated by iron ore, copper, coal and meat and some grains – hit a 20-year low in 2020 as the economy lost steam amid a resurgence of coronavirus infections and lockdowns.

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Economics / Interest Rates / Markets

Asian Shares Fall on Monetary Moves, Regulatory Rumblings

January 26, 2021January 26, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

Share markets across Asia were lower after comments and a out of character move by China’s central bank in money markets sparked concerns of a tightening in policy and a more stringent approach to risks in the financial system.

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Economics / Markets

Economics Watch: Oz CPI, US Fed Meeting Overshadow All Else

January 24, 2021January 24, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

An in-depth look at all the key economic drivers and their potential effects on local and global markets this week.

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Commodities / Currencies / Economics / Fixed Interest / Funds / Interest Rates / Markets / Shane Oliver

US Political Protests, Inflation and Rising Bond Yields

January 22, 2021January 21, 2021 - by Shane Oliver

AMP Capital’s Dr Shane Oliver breaks down markets across the spectrum and around the globe in his weekly Insights column.

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Economics / Markets

Part-Time Jobs Soften Unemployment Blow

January 21, 2021January 21, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

Thanks to a boom in part time jobs, unemployment ended the difficult 2020 calendar year well below the 8% rate forecast by the Reserve Bank in its fourth and final Statement on Monetary Policy last November.

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Economics / Markets

China 4Q20 GDP Beats Expectations, Sets Scene for Strong 2021

January 19, 2021January 18, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

China’s GDP was up 6.5% year-on-year for the December quarter, much stronger than the 6.1% forecast by economists and well up on the 4.9% growth in the previous period.

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Economics / Interest Rates / Markets / Politics

Moody’s Reacts Positively to Biden Package

January 15, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

Credit rating group, Moody’s has given an upbeat and thumbs up approval for the Biden package. Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi reckoned it will boost US growth this year to 5% or better, and the same in 2022.

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Economics / Markets / Politics

Biden Announces $US1.9t Rescue Plan

January 15, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

President-elect Joe Biden will ask Congress to spend $US1.9 trillion on a new economic rescue plan as the pace of COVID-19 infections and deaths shows no sign of easing soon and the US economy starts tipping towards another slowdown.

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Economics / Markets

China Announces Record Trade Surplus

January 15, 2021January 14, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

China ended 2020 with a rush as it notched up two of its biggest ever trade surpluses in November and December, posting a surplus of $US78.17 billion in December and topping the previous peak in November of $US75.40 billion in November.

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Economics / Markets

ABS Job Figures Show Unexpected Resilience

January 14, 2021January 14, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

Further evidence yesterday that the Australian labour market is doing better than anyone thought for most of 2020 with news from the ABS that job vacancies have regained pre-pandemic levels.

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Commodities / Currencies / Economics / Fixed Interest / Interest Rates / Markets / Shane Oliver

2021 – A List of Lists Regarding the Macro Investment Outlook

January 11, 2021January 11, 2021 - by Shane Oliver

2020 turned out far better for diversified investors than had been feared when the pandemic hit, with average balanced growth superannuation funds looking like they have returned around 3%. This followed around 15% last year. But can returns hold up?

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Economics / Markets / Shane Oliver

Market Update 8 January 2021

January 11, 2021 - by Shane Oliver

Plenty of news and developing stories to start the new year. Here’s the key ones to keep an eye out for.

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Economics / Markets

Big Week in Store for Chinese Economic Data

January 11, 2021January 11, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

A big week ahead for the Chinese economy with confirmation it was the standout performer in 2020 with GDP, production, investment, retail sales and inflation data to show another round of improvement.

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Economics / Markets

Services, imports help limit trade surplus damage

January 7, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

A solid performance from services and better import figures have helped soften the fall in the physical goods trade surplus for November.

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Economics / Markets

Oz housing approvals hit 20-year high

January 7, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that housing approvals hit their highest level in 21 years in November while the value of renovations sat at an all-time high in the same month.

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Economics / Markets

China manufacturing comes off the boil

January 1, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

Some signs of cooling in China’s huge manufacturing sector as it ended a chaotic 2020 in December, according to the first survey of activity for the month from the country’s National Statistics Bureau on New Year’s Eve.

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Economics / Markets

Oz trade surplus falls under $2b for first time in 2 years

December 23, 2020December 23, 2020 - by Glenn Dyer

For the first time in two years, Australia’s goods trade surplus sank under the $2 billion level, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). And you can blame China for that fall – both on the export and the import side.

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Economics / Markets / Retail

Optimistic sales data may be an early Xmas present for retailers

December 22, 2020December 22, 2020 - by Glenn Dyer

The preliminary retail sales data for November on Tuesday helps explain why a number of retailers continue to provide larger than expected sales growth updates.

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Economics / Markets

Virus Damage Only A Flesh Wound As Household Wealth Hits New High

December 22, 2020December 22, 2020 - by Glenn Dyer

Believe it or not but the pandemic and the worst recession Australia has experienced in 90 years have not damaged Australia’s national finances (yet). In fact a glancing blow over two quarters might be the surprising conclusion from the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

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Economics / Interest Rates

ABS Adjusts CPI To Reflect Grounded Travel Industry

December 22, 2020December 22, 2020 - by Glenn Dyer

COVID-19 will mean the December quarter Consumer Price Index to be released on the last Wednesday in January, will have a different look to the one released in late October for the September quarter.

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  • Australia…One Hour In…ASX200 down 158 points
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  • Kogan Goes Well, Now for the Real Test
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