Anxiety Grows Inside “Uncertain” RBA
The Reserve Bank is now closer to a rate cut at any time since the last round in mid-2016 – the last was August of that year to the current cash rate of 1.5%.
Read MoreEconomics
China Drops Another Mixed Bag Of Data
Anyone hoping for a clear guide as to the health of the Chinese economy from yesterday’s key data drop for January and February would have found just more confusion.
Read More“Millennial Socialism” & The Swing Of The Political Pendulum Back To The Left
Growing support for higher taxes on the rich and greater government intervention in the economy suggest median voters have shifted to the left. Support for economic rationalist policies has fallen.
Read MoreHome Lending Demand Dries Up
January lending data yesterday from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed Reserve Bank figures at the end of February – demand and deals with investors have dried up, lending to owner-occupiers is slowing but loans to business are rising.
Read MoreBusiness Confidence, Conditions Soften In February
Another fall in business conditions and in confidence last month, according to the National Australia Bank’s business survey – with the weakening pushing the readings below long term average levels for the first time in months.
Read MoreLunar Break Blurs China Trade Picture
On the face of it, China’s trade figures for February were terrible – but don’t believe the hype because it wasn’t as bad as first thought.
Read MoreChina’s Inflation Slows In January
China’s inflation readings for February at the weekend did nothing to quell the idea that the economy is trundling along in low gear.
Read MoreTrade Surplus Surges On Gold, LNG
Australia recorded its second largest trade surplus in history in January thanks to surging prices of copper, gold exports plus solid prices for LNG, iron ore and resilient prices for some types of coal, plus alumina.
Read MoreRetail Sales Make Soft Start To 2019
Retailers suffered another bleak month in January, with a weak start for 2019 after the surprise slide in Christmas sales.
Read MoreAustralia Slides Into A “Per Capita Recession”
Australian growth slowed even more in the December quarter. Growth may bounce back a bit this year, but the housing downturn will likely constrain it to around 2- 2.5%.
Read MoreWeak GDP Underscores Neutral RBA
Just to make it clear there won’t be an interest rate rise in Australia this year and probably most if not all of 2020 as well – especially not after the second weak quarter of economic growth in a row.
Read MoreWhat Can We Expect From Today’s GDP Number?
Today’s national accounts for the three months to December are not expected to be brilliant. In fact, at best they could be between 0.2 percentage points to 0.4 – while some pessimists believe the reading could be a negative 0.1 because of the weakness in household income.
Read MoreChina Adds Stimulus To Clear Lower Growth Hurdle
The Chinese leadership has lowered economic growth targets to a range of 6.0% to 6.5% while at the same time revealing plans for tax cuts and other stimulatory moves.
Read MoreRBA Happy In Neutral Despite “Challenging” Household Consumption
No change in rates from the Reserve Bank yesterday, now for what’s expected to be a weak GDP figure from the December quarter national accounts to be released later this morning.
Read MoreBuilding Approvals Continue To Underwhelm
On a seasonally adjusted basis building approvals started 2019 in January with a small fall but on a trend basis (which is designed to smooth out seasonal adjustment fluctuations) approvals fell 3.2% in January to hit their lowest since 2013.
Read MoreDiary: RBA Decision, US Jobs, Oz GDP
Apart from the Reserve Bank board meeting and a slow of figures starting with the December quarter growth figures in Australia, the February jobs report from the US is the most important event this week for markets outside Australia – unless Donald Trump and China resolve the trade war, or decide to prolong the pain through disagreement.
Read MoreHuge Week Of Data To Test Economic Outlook
The coming week is one of the big weeks of the year for the Australian economy – the first week of March, June, September, and December is when the monthly meeting of the Reserve Bank board, the national accounts for the preceding quarter and start of month economic data such as retail sales, building approvals and trade are released.
Read MoreBuoyant Business Investment Defies Broader Downturn
Figures out yesterday confirmed not only are Australian companies spending more on investment, but the outlook is the strongest for three years.
Read MoreOz Construction (In)Activity Worse Than Expected
Now here’s a bit of nasty news for the Reserve Bank and others – the value of construction work done across Australia in the final three months of 2018 fell by a sharp 3.1% to $51.603 billion (seasonally adjusted) instead of rising by 0.4% as forecast by the market.
Read MoreStronger Jobs Data To Keep The RBA At Bay
The threat of an interest cut from the Reserve Bank has been held at bay for a few more months after a better than expected jobs performance in January that belied the wider gloom about the economy and key sectors such as retailing.
Read MoreFive Charts & A Table That Are Critical To Watch
Five key global charts to watch as to whether this will be the case are: global business conditions PMIs; global inflation; the US yield curve; the US dollar; and global trade growth.
Read MoreWages Growth Still Hard To Find
Wage growth actually slowed a touch in the December quarter according to data released yesterday in the latest Wage Price Index from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Read MoreChinese Inflation Evaporates In January
More evidence that the pace of economic activity in China – especially in manufacturing – is weakening.
Read MoreLunar Holiday Blurs China Trade Picture
On the face of it China’s January trade performance was better than expected but once again it has been the timing of the Lunar New Year holidays in February that has distorted the figures.
Read MoreRBNZ Adopts Similar Stance To The RBA On Rates
The Reserve Bank of NZ has left its key Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 1.75% and says it expects to maintain this level for at least the next two years.
Read MoreHome Lending Data Continues On A Downtrend Trend
As expected home lending fell sharply in December to be down sharply for 2018 as a whole as loans for apartments and units fell steeply followed loans for owner-occupiers.
Read MoreNAB Economists Shift View On Rates
Despite a small improvement in business conditions in January after December’s sharp fall and a small improvement in business confidence, the National Australia Bank has had significant change of heart and is now forecasting that the Reserve Bank will leave rates on hold for a long time – well into next decade – but with a rate cut not out of the question.
Read MoreTrade Data Detail Supports RBA’s Case For Optimism
The seasonally adjusted trade surplus for December of more than $3.6 billion was the second largest ever and moreover, Australia notched up a trade surplus in every month of 2018 – the first time every that has been achieved.
Read MoreRBA Walks Back Growth Outlook, Rate Cut Now 50/50
The Reserve Bank of Australia has revealed it has made a major change in its monetary policy stance, with a cut in the cash rate now even money bet.
Read MoreRetail, Car Sales Add Weight To Weakening Outlook
December’s retail and January car sales slowed more than normal with new figures showing big falls in activity.
Read MoreRBA Holds Steady Despite Slowdown Risks
Rates have now been on hold at the record low for 30 months straight, but financial markets are starting predicting the next rate move is more likely to be a cut than a hike as declining house prices impact on household spending.
Read MoreHousing, Jobs Data Soft Ahead Of RBA Meeting
The Reserve Bank board will find one or two points of interest from yesterday’s data releases at its first meeting today, but it won’t change the policy stance of no move in rates for the time being.
Read MoreS&P Upgrades Outlook On Kiwi Economy
Unlike the worst fears of her critics, the NZ Labour-led government of PM Jacinda Arden has not been bad for the country’s economy or its credit rating.
Read MoreWhy Should Be Wary Of A Dovish Fed
The change in approach from the US Federal Reserve in its post-January meeting statement for the Open Market Committee is another example of how investors and markets should be ‘careful what they wish for’.
Read More‘Patient’ Fed Leaves US Rates On Hold
The chances for more rate rises in the US this year have been reduced dramatically after a change of heart by the US Federal Reserve.
Read MoreTepid Inflation Data Opens Door To RBA Cut
Pressures remains on the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates after another weak quarter for inflation in the three months to December.
Read MoreBusiness Conditions Turn Down Again In December
Now December was either a one-off so far as business conditions are concerned, or it saw the start of a new lower trend that should see concern rise about the further direction of Australian economic growth.
Read MoreEmployment Data Losing Momentum As Full Time Jobs Fade
Australia’s job creation boomed slowed sharply in 2018, but growth still topped long term averages according to the December Labour Force report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) yesterday.
Read MoreJapan Adds To Weaker Trade Picture
Japan has joined the likes of China, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia in revealing a sharp slowdown in exports.
Read MoreChina Posts Slowest GDP Growth In 29 Years
As expected the slowdown in the Chinese economy saw 2018 GDP grow by 6.6% – the lowest annual growth rate for 29 years, supporting the picture of recent weaker performance seen in other indicators such as investment, retail sales, and industrial production.
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