The uncertainty in the national labour market was again underlined by the December data issued by the ABS which showed a surprise dip in the jobless rate to a nine-month low of 5.1% from 5.2% in November and 5.3% in October.
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For all the talk of the damage the US trade war would do to Chinese exports, the impact, while very noticeable, wasn’t as dramatic as many analysts had claimed.
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China ended 2019 with more signs that the pork-driven surge in consumer inflationary pressures is easing, while producer deflation again eased in December.
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The US economy continues to grow slowly but there are growing signs that conditions are weaker than many forecasters believe.
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While China’s industrial output recovered solidly in November, there’s a different story in steel output which fell to an eight-month low.
Read MoreChina has trimmed its expected growth rate for 2020 – in what is yet another example of the government reformatting its economic targets to fit a slowing pace of growth in the economy.
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As forecast last week, the New Zealand government has cut its 2019-29, confirmed a smaller budget deficit (and trimmed future surplus forecasts) and revealed plans for a stimulus package involving more than $NZ12 billion of infrastructure spending.
Read MoreProducer price inflation remained negative in China last month for the fifth month in a row but the country’s China’s consumer inflation accelerated further in November to its highest level in nearly eight years, thanks to soaring prices of pork.
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Nothing positive from the latest National Australia Bank monthly survey of business activity and confidence going into the last month of 2019 and into early 2020.
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Four days after the Japanese government revealed plans for a $US121 billion stimulus spending package, data emerged on Monday showing that the economy is traveling a lot better than anyone had thought.
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Another 1% plus fall in China’s exports in November but imports surprised with a rise of 0.3% after a sharp fall in October.
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After the very strong US jobs report for November, don’t expect any move on interest rates at this week’s final meeting for 2019 of the US Fed’s Reserve’s top policy committee.
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A day after the unimpressive September quarter national accounts showed Australians had closed their wallets in Q3, the first reading of consumer activity in Q4 showed no change.
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If the September quarter’s 0.4% rise in GDP is a ‘gentle turning point’ as suggested by the Reserve Bank and governor Philip Lowe, then the economy got lost somewhere in the three months to September 30.
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No rate cut from the Reserve Bank at its final monetary policy board meeting of the year and none is in prospect, despite the usual speculation from Paul Keating’s famed pet shop galahs among our economic commentators, business analysts, and media writers.
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Yesterday the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed that forecast in the releasing the current account data for the September quarter showing a surplus for the three months of $7.9 billion.
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No rate cut today at the final Reserve bank board meeting, despite weak data yesterday – except for house prices which continue to escalate towards what will be a crunch.
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The health of the economy returns to the fore this week with the final meeting for 2019 of the RBA’s monetary policy board tomorrow and the September quarter’s National Accounts the day after which are forecast to show another miserable growth outcome.
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Most governments in developed economies have been reluctant to stimulate – Australia is no different – and have left it to central banks to flog monetary policy as hard possible towards quantitative easing with policy moves such negative interest rates and bond-buying. But there are some governments starting to move.
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Australian business investment fell unexpectedly in the September quarter, creating additional downside risks for next week’s third-quarter national accounts and GDP figures.
Read MoreReserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has all but ruled out the chances of the central bank following the US Fed, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England and introducing quantitative easing (QE) in an effort to kick start inflation and boost economic activity.
Read MoreA burst of reality on wages over the next year from the second most senior official at the Reserve Bank with Deputy Governor, Guy Debelle telling a conference in Canberra that Australia had to get used to low wage rises for some time to come.
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There is good reason to believe we may be close to the low in the $A (or have already seen it): it has already had a large fall; it is just below fair value; the global economic cycle is likely to turn up next year; sentiment towards the $A is very negative; and the current account is in surplus.
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Tomorrow sees RBA Governor Lowe speak on “Unconventional Monetary Policy: Some Lessons from Overseas” a speech that will focus attention on what the central bank’s monetary policy stance might look like in 2020.
Read MoreThe headlines said China’s economy slowed further in October with output, investment, and retail sales dipping (see separate story), but in the case of output, the week-long Golden Week and National day celebrations at the start of the month played a major role.
Read MoreThe final round of China’s economic data for October continued to paint a picture of a sluggish economy, but the week-long national holiday and 70th birthday celebrations at the start of the month were also a contributing factor to the weaker than forecast performance.
Read MoreMore signs in October that the great jobs boom is losing its bloom. In seasonally adjusted terms October saw the largest monthly fall job numbers in three years, sparking the usual speculation about another rate cut – in December.
Read MoreAnnual wage growth hit its slowest pace in 15 months in the three months to September, completely undermining the Morrison’s government’s expectations of rising growth.
Read MoreFor the second month in a row the National Australia Bank’s monthly business survey has hinted at a stabilising in the sluggishness afflicting large areas of the economy.
Read MoreAustralia’s trade surplus hit a record $21.1 billion in the three months to September, according to data released on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
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There is no denying concerns about global debt, seemingly never-ending QE, more debt trading on negative interest rates, inequality & geopolitical threats. However, some of these concerns are exaggerated and there are five reasons why I am not so fussed about the global outlook.
Read MoreChina has made a small but significant trim to a key interest rate ahead of the release of the October economic data starting on Friday.
Read MoreNo rate cut from the Reserve Bank, but there was an admission that we face more than two more years of ultra low interest rates, and possibly a third because the central bank has downgraded its inflation outlook again.
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So much for all the hot air from the Federal government, some economists and even the Reserve Bank – that so-called $1,080 tax refund has turned out to be a fizzer and failed to boost retail sales in the September quarter.
Read MoreNo rate cut from the Reserve Bank at its November meeting tomorrow, but many analysts and economists believe one will come in December, and if not then, at the February meeting in 2020 (the first for next year).
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Two surveys of economic activity in China’s huge manufacturing and services sectors showed a worrying cooling in October.
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While the building approvals data for September showed a tiny bit of ‘light’ for worried policymakers with signs of a steadying of approval levels for apartments, units etc (albeit at low levels) and a small pick up in approvals for private homes, the credit data for the same month from the Reserve Bank was bad.
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