How Do Interest Rates Affect Stockmarkets?
With interest rates at all time lows around the world, Kevin Murphy from Schroders looks at how interest rates affect stockmarkets and what may happen in the event of fiscal tightening.
Read MoreEconomics
Chinese Economy Verging on Basket Case Territory
China’s economy turned ugly in the three months to September as growth weakened sharply, only serving to magnify concerns about problematic sectors such as steel and property.
Read MoreDay of Reckoning for Chinese Economy
A big day today for the Chinese economy and its growth path into 2022, with the release of key economic growth figures, plus investment, retail sales and industrial production data.
Read MoreRBA Acknowledges Climate Change Risk
RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle told a finance conference yesterday that climate change was a “first-order risk” to the system, with broad-ranging impacts on Australia including households and businesses.
Read MoreJobs Data Continues to Misdirect
Once again the pandemic, lockdowns and one-off government payments to those without work have made the monthly labour force report an inaccurate picture of just what is happening to jobs.
Read MoreAAAustralia Regaaains Top Credit Raaating
Despite all the naysayers in 2020, after 17 months Australia has regained a AAA credit rating with a stable outlook from all three major ratings groups – S&P Global, Moody’s and Fitch.
Read MoreDon’t Fear the Taper
As vaccination rates increase around the world, world economies appear to be stabilising. Economic output is around pre-pandemic levels, and signs of inflation and wage pressure have become a theme of 2021.
Read MoreSome Relief for China as Trade Surplus Widens
Export growth unexpectedly jumped more than forecast and import growth slowed more than expected in September, leaving China with yet another massive trade surplus.
Read MoreNAB Survey Shows Confidence Quick to Rebound
Despite the continuing lockdowns around most of the country, business confidence rebounded strongly in September to be well above its long-run average, after falling into negative territory in prior months.
Read MoreWhat if Interest Rates Stay Low Forever?
Given the current backdrop, GAM Investments’ Julian Howard suggests it is difficult to see how central bankers might ever return to what might be deemed a ‘normal’ interest rate environment.
Read MoreRBNZ Tightens Rates, APRA Tightens Rules
As expected, the Reserve Bank of NZ (RBNZ) has lifted its key interest rate; not so expected was APRA’s decision to introduce a small tightening of controls over housing finance.
Read MoreReserve Bank Holds Fire on Rates for Now
No change to monetary policy from Tuesday’s October meeting of the Reserve Bank board and no updates on mooted moves to control the surge in house prices, either.
Read MoreThe Bledisloe Cup of Interest Rates
Monetary policy in Australia and New Zealand will head in radically diametric directions this week as the two countries’ Reserve Banks look set to provide very different decisions and post-meeting statements.
Read MoreWhat Can Be Done to Improve Australian Housing Affordability?
With housing affordability in Australia worse than ever, AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver looks at the sector and some potential measures that might be taken to remedy a situation that is no longer cyclical, but chronic.
Read MoreOz Economy Shows Surprising Resilience
Is there a bit more underlying strength in the economy than it seems and is that going to be sustained, or will it end up being a temporary blip and run out of puff in 2022?
Read MoreGovernment Unfazed by Iron Ore Price Slide
The Federal Government doesn’t believe the iron ore price slide will impact export revenues, boosting its 2021-22 earnings forecasts from the mining and energy sector to a record $349 billion.
Read MoreChinese Economic Waters Remain Muddied
The Chinese economy remains almost impossible to get a bead on after the release of the monthly surveys – this time for September – of manufacturing and service sector activity.
Read MoreRetail Sales the Bird of Ill-Omen for Oz Economy
The Australian economy is heading for a contraction of 4% in the September quarter, perhaps more, after retail sales, a key barometer of household spending fell for a third consecutive month in August.
Read MoreCorrection Time? Seven Things Investors Need to Keep in Mind
AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver suggests seven key things for investors to bear in mind in light of the recent pull back in investment markets and renewed uncertainty regarding the outlook.
Read MoreAsian Development Bank Trims Growth Forecast
The Asian Development Bank has trimmed its 2021 economic growth forecast for developing Asia as the Covid pandemic continues to dominate the region’s outlook and throw up roadblocks to recovery.
Read MoreDiary: This Week Brought to You by the US Fed
The early fall meeting of the US Federal Reserve dominates global markets and policy thinking this week, along with the struggles by Chinese property giant Evergrande to survive its crushing $US304 billion debt burden.
Read MoreFive Reasons Why the $A is Likely to Resume its Upswing
Since its February high the $A has fallen on the back of global growth concerns, a slowdown in China and the Delta outbreak in Australia. AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver thinks it is due for a turnaround.
Read MoreSurprise U-Turn for US Retail Sales
In a major surprise, US retail sales unexpectedly jumped 0.7% last month instead of following July with another big fall as economists had forecast.
Read MoreBOA Survey Shows Boom Beneath the Doom and Gloom
Covid Delta continues to drain confidence around the world in the outlook for economic growth and earnings – but it hasn’t killed it stone dead as the original variant did in early 2020.
Read MoreThe Great Trans-Tasman Economic Divide
While the continued lockdowns in much of Australia took their toll on the labour market in August, it was a different story across the Tasman, with the NZ economy growing strongly in the June quarter.
Read MoreDelta Wreaks Havoc on Chinese Economy
Covid Delta hit Chinese economic activity hard right across the spectrum in August, according to the final data drop for the month from the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday.
Read MoreUS Yield Pressures Ease a Tad on CPI Figure
US consumer price inflation slowed a little in August as the prices of used cars slid, partially reversing the surge earlier in the year that helped boost the CPI to its highest level for more than a decade.
Read MoreRBA Boss, NAB See Some Darkness Before the Dawn
RBA Governor Philip Lowe has repeated his belief (shared by the NAB in its latest monthly business survey) that the Australian economy will see some gloom before boom.
Read MoreDiary: Economies of Scale
With the spectre of Covid Delta increasingly weighing on global economic and market activity, there’s a busy week of economic releases ahead, with UK and US inflation and local jobs data leading the way.
Read MoreRBA Equivocation Highlights Broad-Based Confusion
The equivocation inherent in the RBA’s qualitative easing policy announcement this week and the market’s response to it both highlight the fact that nobody is remotely sure where the economy goes from here.
Read MoreAPRA Satisfied but Still Watching the Defectives
While generally satisfied, APRA has gently warned borrowers and lenders that the recent upsurge in Covid Delta infections and lockdowns could impact the still-improving health of the finance sector.
Read MoreChinese PPI Hits 13-Year High
A 13-year high for producer prices across China’s huge manufacturing sector in August has confirmed the failure of the government’s concerted effort to suppress the cost of key commodities and services.
Read MoreWages Data Hints at 5% Jobless Rate
Unemployment looks certain to surge back over 5% after the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics payroll and wages data showed another drop in the first two weeks of August.
Read MoreWhat’s the Policy Playbook for the Inflation Endgame?
A shift in the inflation landscape is underway as policymakers start to focus on more pressing concerns but what will the new regime look like? Darren Williams and Guy Bruten from AB share their thoughts.
Read MoreRBA Tapers, Albeit with a Twist
The gathering economic impact from the continued lockdowns has seen the RBA taper its quantitative easing program of bond buying by 20%, but extend the program until at least mid-February.
Read MoreSurprise Bounce in Chinese Trade Numbers
China’s foreign trade unexpectedly picked up in August, as solid global demand offset some of the pressure from a resurgence of Covid Delta cases and supply bottlenecks across the country.
Read MoreDiary: The Taper Caper Continues
A quiet week ahead starting with the US Labor Day holiday, with the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy decision tomorrow dominating local attention as well as August employment data on Thursday.
Read MoreSeven Reasons to Look Beyond the Gloom
Things have turned a bit grim of late with Delta cases both locally and abroad showing no signs of slowing. But, as AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver argues in his regular column, things aren’t as bad as they might seem.
Read MoreCrew, Chip Shortages Plaguing US Economy
Shortages of workers and computer chips are having a dramatic impact on the US economy – keeping inflation higher while shutting factories and forcing retailers to boost wages.
Read MoreTrade Surplus Bonanza May Have Run its Course
The Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that Australia’s trade surplus hit a record in July as exports of iron ore, coal and liquefied natural gas all rose strongly. But is that the peak for the near future?
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