More Tough Love from RBNZ as Rates Go Up Again
No messing about with inflation across the Tasman as the RBNZ revealed its second 0.50% increase in the official cash rate, taking it to 2% – the highest it has been for six years.
Read MoreEconomics
First Tick for Albo as AAA Credit Rating Confirmed
The change of government went off without the horses stampeding the ASX yesterday, helped by ratings group S&P Global reaffirming its AAA stable rating for the local economy.
Read MoreSmall Net Gain in Jobs as Labour Shortage Persists
Despite only showing a net gain of 4,000, 92,400 new full-time jobs were created and 88,400 part time jobs ended in April – presumably as most of the latter became the former.
Read MoreReal Wages a Case of For Richer, for Poorer
While today’s April jobs data will be solid, it won’t offset the disappointment in another quarter of weak wages growth which has left most of us even further behind the inflationary curve.
Read MoreWoes Continue as China Reels toward Recession
If the Chinese economy is not already in a recession, it could well be so in the next couple weeks as the country’s Covid elimination policy strangles demand and growth at all levels.
Read MoreDiary: Federal Election Dominates Proceedings
The last-minute politics ahead of this weekend’s federal election will overshadow the minutes from the RBA’s May board meeting, along with wage and jobs data later in the week.
Read MoreChina CPI at 17-Month High as PPI Eases
China’s consumer price inflation rose sharply to a 17-month high, but producer prices eased as lockdowns played havoc with consumer spending, manufacturing and distribution.
Read MoreJittery Wall Street Jumping at Shadows
It doesn’t take much to rattle Wall Street at the moment, let alone a statement by the Fed of an increased chance that trading conditions in US markets will suddenly deteriorate.
Read MoreConsumer Confidence Riding High as Election Looms
The Australian economy continues to boom as we head towards the Federal election on Saturday week, judging by the latest monthly business survey from the National Australia Bank.
Read MoreZero-Covid Policy Further Stymies Chinese Economy
A raft of key economic data released from China on Monday shows an economy under siege from within and without, with recession a real possibility – here are all the important bits.
Read MoreCovid Driving China’s EV Sector to Distraction
China’s April trade data is out later today and will show the early scars from the surge in Covid driven lockdowns across much of the country which continues with little real improvement.
Read MoreConfidence, Spending Remain Surprisingly Buoyant
Nothing wrong with household spending and confidence in early 2022, according to data on retail sales and lending finance released yesterday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Read MoreRBA Move the Opening Gambit in a Longer Endgame
Having lifted rates once, the Reserve Bank says it will do so again – following the script used by the US Federal Reserve, along with the central banks of economies both small and large.
Read MoreRBA Raises Rates for First Time Since 2010
The Reserve Bank has lifted its cash rate by a quarter of a per cent to 0.35%, the first time it has done so since November 2010 when the cash rate was raised to 4.75%.
Read MorePlenty of Rates Speculation ahead of RBA Meeting
As yields on 10-year Australian bonds hit recent highs on Monday, the RBA is widely expected to at least reveal its hand on rate rises after today’s May monetary policy meeting.
Read MoreBoJ Walking Rates Tightrope with No Safety Net
Interest rates may be rising around the world but not in Japan, where the central bank has made it very clear they will not be following suit, even in the face of inflationary and currency pressures.
Read MoreRate Fate in RBA Hands after High CPI Reading
Ignore the as-expected high March quarter inflation readings released by the ABS on Wednesday and instead focus on what the Reserve Bank will do with them at its May meeting next week.
Read MoreFed Ready to Release its Inner Hawk
Fed chair Jay Powell blew up expectations for US monetary policy and rate rises on Thursday by openly suggesting the central bank will lift rates more aggressively over the rest of 2022.
Read MoreIMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Again
The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecast for the second time this year to 3.6% from 4.4% in its January World Economic Outlook and the 6.1% rise in 2021.
Read MorePowell Seeking to Rid the US of Inflation Without Shedding Jobs
Fed Chair Jay Powell is looking for some sort of ‘immaculate disinflation’. His problem? Monetary policy is ill-suited to fight inflation arising from supply constraints.
Read MoreChinese GDP Figure Papering Over the Cracks
China’s GDP reading of 4.8% annual growth looks OK, but the real story of the drooping economy emerges in the weak quarterly figure and sharp contraction in retail sales in March.
Read MoreChinese Economy Beset from All Angles
As we forecast, the widespread Covid lockdowns and high world prices for key commodities hit China’s trade performance in March and will do so again only much harder in April.
Read MoreRBNZ Pre-empts Fed with 50 Basis Point Rate Rise
The Reserve Bank of NZ beat the US Fed Reserve to the punch yesterday, following on its move in February of this year by raising its Official Cash Rate 0.5% to 1.50%.
Read MoreUS CPI at Four-Decade Highs
A 41-year high for headline consumer price growth in the US of 8.5% saw shares fall after an early rise, bonds a touch firmer and the currency going nowhere fast.
Read MoreDreaded S-Word a Real Possibility for China
A sharp rise in inflation has pushed China closer towards the worst of all economic situations – stagflation – where slowing growth and rising costs can cripple an economy.
Read MoreOz Economy Strong but Cost Pressures Loom
The Australian economy strengthened in March with business conditions and confidence again rising, even as cost pressures became increasingly real for more and more companies.
Read MoreWorld Bank Slashes Russian Growth Forecast
The World Bank believes Russia’s economic growth will fall this year because of the invasion of Ukraine, but has also downgraded growth estimates elsewhere, citing inflationary pressures.
Read MoreCentral Banks Holding the Market’s Interest
It has been a big week for central banks both here in Australia and in the US, and both look almost certain to hold the lion’s share of investor focus for the foreseeable future and beyond.
Read MoreGlobal Stocks Provide Clues to Accelerating Inflation
Janus Henderson’s Matt Peron explains that energy aren’t the sole cause of weakness in consumer discretionary stocks and that US households, thus far, are withstanding elevated inflation.
Read MoreImports Surge Takes Chunk out of Oz Surplus
An unexpected surge in imports of consumer goods and fuels to record highs lopped more than $4 billion off Australia’s trade surplus in February from January’s $11.8 billion.
Read MoreRate of Change Set to Increase at the RBA
Some important changes in the language of its post meeting statement on Tuesday are a clear indication that the Reserve Bank has moved closer to lifting interest rates this year.
Read MoreStagflation – Returning or Not?
In 1965, when the term was coined, the UK was heading toward a period of stagflation. VanEck’s Arian Neiron explains why there are fears we are now heading in the same direction.
Read MoreElectioneering Could Cost Us in the Long Run
More evidence today that the economy remains robust and that the billions in election promises could unnecessarily add to price pressures being felt by businesses and consumers.
Read MoreChinese Covid Cluster Starts to Bite Economically
The Chinese economy slowed sharply in March, according to the first major survey of the impact of the upturn in Covid cases and the indirect impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Read MoreRetailers Seen as the Budget’s Big Winners
Analysts see retailers and other stocks selling goods or services to consumers as the main sharemarket beneficiaries of Tuesday night’s incentive-packed federal budget.
Read MoreRatings Agencies Show Solidarity with Euro Majors
An interesting set of ratings decisions from the major credit checking firms this week, especially in view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the impact on Europe in particular.
Read MoreRetail Continues on Road to Recovery
Retail sales jumped a stronger than forecast 1.8% in February with shoppers continuing to spend up as the Covid Omicron fears of December and early January dissipated.
Read MoreThe 2022-23 Federal Budget: A Review
A federal election always makes for a giveaway budget and this year it’s no different. We take an in-depth look at what may well be Josh Frydenberg’s final budget as Treasurer.
Read MoreThe 2022-23 Federal Budget: A Primer
With the election looming, tomorrow’s 2022-23 federal budget will no doubt contain plenty of goodies – despite a big deficit – aimed at enabling the Liberal Party to hold onto office.
Read MorePowell Rate Comments Set Off Feeding Frenzy
A game of one-upmanship has emerged among the US punditry since Jay Powell ramped up his rhetoric on Monday with regard to how aggressively the Fed would raise US rates.
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