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Economics

Economics / Interest Rates / Markets

More Tough Love from RBNZ as Rates Go Up Again

May 25, 2022May 25, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

No messing about with inflation across the Tasman as the RBNZ revealed its second 0.50% increase in the official cash rate, taking it to 2% – the highest it has been for six years.

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Economics / Markets / Politics

First Tick for Albo as AAA Credit Rating Confirmed

May 23, 2022May 23, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

The change of government went off without the horses stampeding the ASX yesterday, helped by ratings group S&P Global reaffirming its AAA stable rating for the local economy.

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Economics / Markets

Small Net Gain in Jobs as Labour Shortage Persists

May 19, 2022May 19, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

Despite only showing a net gain of 4,000, 92,400 new full-time jobs were created and 88,400 part time jobs ended in April – presumably as most of the latter became the former.

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Economics / Markets

Real Wages a Case of For Richer, for Poorer

May 18, 2022May 18, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

While today’s April jobs data will be solid, it won’t offset the disappointment in another quarter of weak wages growth which has left most of us even further behind the inflationary curve.

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Economics / Markets

Woes Continue as China Reels toward Recession

May 16, 2022May 16, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

If the Chinese economy is not already in a recession, it could well be so in the next couple weeks as the country’s Covid elimination policy strangles demand and growth at all levels.

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Economics / Markets / Politics

Diary: Federal Election Dominates Proceedings

May 15, 2022May 15, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

The last-minute politics ahead of this weekend’s federal election will overshadow the minutes from the RBA’s May board meeting, along with wage and jobs data later in the week.

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Economics / Markets

China CPI at 17-Month High as PPI Eases

May 11, 2022May 11, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

China’s consumer price inflation rose sharply to a 17-month high, but producer prices eased as lockdowns played havoc with consumer spending, manufacturing and distribution.

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Economics / Markets

Jittery Wall Street Jumping at Shadows

May 10, 2022May 10, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

It doesn’t take much to rattle Wall Street at the moment, let alone a statement by the Fed of an increased chance that trading conditions in US markets will suddenly deteriorate.

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Economics / Markets / Politics

Consumer Confidence Riding High as Election Looms

May 10, 2022May 10, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

The Australian economy continues to boom as we head towards the Federal election on Saturday week, judging by the latest monthly business survey from the National Australia Bank.

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Economics / Markets

Zero-Covid Policy Further Stymies Chinese Economy

May 9, 2022May 9, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

A raft of key economic data released from China on Monday shows an economy under siege from within and without, with recession a real possibility – here are all the important bits.

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Economics / EV Space / Markets

Covid Driving China’s EV Sector to Distraction

May 8, 2022May 8, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

China’s April trade data is out later today and will show the early scars from the surge in Covid driven lockdowns across much of the country which continues with little real improvement.

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Economics / Markets / Retail

Confidence, Spending Remain Surprisingly Buoyant

May 4, 2022May 4, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

Nothing wrong with household spending and confidence in early 2022, according to data on retail sales and lending finance released yesterday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

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Economics / Interest Rates / Markets

RBA Move the Opening Gambit in a Longer Endgame

May 3, 2022May 3, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

Having lifted rates once, the Reserve Bank says it will do so again – following the script used by the US Federal Reserve, along with the central banks of economies both small and large.

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Economics / Interest Rates / Markets

RBA Raises Rates for First Time Since 2010

May 3, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

The Reserve Bank has lifted its cash rate by a quarter of a per cent to 0.35%, the first time it has done so since November 2010 when the cash rate was raised to 4.75%.

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Economics / Interest Rates / Markets

Plenty of Rates Speculation ahead of RBA Meeting

May 2, 2022May 2, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

As yields on 10-year Australian bonds hit recent highs on Monday, the RBA is widely expected to at least reveal its hand on rate rises after today’s May monetary policy meeting.

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Economics / Interest Rates / Markets

BoJ Walking Rates Tightrope with No Safety Net

April 29, 2022April 29, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

Interest rates may be rising around the world but not in Japan, where the central bank has made it very clear they will not be following suit, even in the face of inflationary and currency pressures.

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Economics / Interest Rates / Markets

Rate Fate in RBA Hands after High CPI Reading

April 27, 2022April 27, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

Ignore the as-expected high March quarter inflation readings released by the ABS on Wednesday and instead focus on what the Reserve Bank will do with them at its May meeting next week.

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Economics / Interest Rates / Markets

Fed Ready to Release its Inner Hawk

April 22, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

Fed chair Jay Powell blew up expectations for US monetary policy and rate rises on Thursday by openly suggesting the central bank will lift rates more aggressively over the rest of 2022.

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Economics / Markets

IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Again

April 20, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecast for the second time this year to 3.6% from 4.4% in its January World Economic Outlook and the 6.1% rise in 2021.

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Economics / Funds / Markets

Powell Seeking to Rid the US of Inflation Without Shedding Jobs

April 19, 2022 - by Michael Collins

Fed Chair Jay Powell is looking for some sort of ‘immaculate disinflation’. His problem? Monetary policy is ill-suited to fight inflation arising from supply constraints.

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Economics / Markets

Chinese GDP Figure Papering Over the Cracks

April 18, 2022April 18, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

China’s GDP reading of 4.8% annual growth looks OK, but the real story of the drooping economy emerges in the weak quarterly figure and sharp contraction in retail sales in March.

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Economics / Markets

Chinese Economy Beset from All Angles

April 13, 2022April 13, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

As we forecast, the widespread Covid lockdowns and high world prices for key commodities hit China’s trade performance in March and will do so again only much harder in April.

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Economics / Interest Rates / Markets

RBNZ Pre-empts Fed with 50 Basis Point Rate Rise

April 13, 2022April 13, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

The Reserve Bank of NZ beat the US Fed Reserve to the punch yesterday, following on its move in February of this year by raising its Official Cash Rate 0.5% to 1.50%.

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Economics / Markets

US CPI at Four-Decade Highs

April 13, 2022April 14, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

A 41-year high for headline consumer price growth in the US of 8.5% saw shares fall after an early rise, bonds a touch firmer and the currency going nowhere fast.

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Economics / Markets

Dreaded S-Word a Real Possibility for China

April 12, 2022April 12, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

A sharp rise in inflation has pushed China closer towards the worst of all economic situations – stagflation – where slowing growth and rising costs can cripple an economy.

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Economics / Markets

Oz Economy Strong but Cost Pressures Loom

April 12, 2022April 12, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

The Australian economy strengthened in March with business conditions and confidence again rising, even as cost pressures became increasingly real for more and more companies.

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Economics / Markets

World Bank Slashes Russian Growth Forecast

April 11, 2022April 11, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

The World Bank believes Russia’s economic growth will fall this year because of the invasion of Ukraine, but has also downgraded growth estimates elsewhere, citing inflationary pressures.

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Economics / Interest Rates / Markets

Central Banks Holding the Market’s Interest

April 8, 2022April 8, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

It has been a big week for central banks both here in Australia and in the US, and both look almost certain to hold the lion’s share of investor focus for the foreseeable future and beyond.

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Commodities / Economics / Funds / Markets

Global Stocks Provide Clues to Accelerating Inflation

April 7, 2022April 7, 2022 - by Janus Henderson Investors

Janus Henderson’s Matt Peron explains that energy aren’t the sole cause of weakness in consumer discretionary stocks and that US households, thus far, are withstanding elevated inflation.

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Economics / Markets

Imports Surge Takes Chunk out of Oz Surplus

April 7, 2022April 7, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

An unexpected surge in imports of consumer goods and fuels to record highs lopped more than $4 billion off Australia’s trade surplus in February from January’s $11.8 billion.

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Economics / Interest Rates / Markets

Rate of Change Set to Increase at the RBA

April 5, 2022April 5, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

Some important changes in the language of its post meeting statement on Tuesday are a clear indication that the Reserve Bank has moved closer to lifting interest rates this year.

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Economics / Funds / Markets

Stagflation – Returning or Not?

April 5, 2022April 5, 2022 - by Arian Neiron

In 1965, when the term was coined, the UK was heading toward a period of stagflation. VanEck’s Arian Neiron explains why there are fears we are now heading in the same direction.

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Economics / Markets / Politics

Electioneering Could Cost Us in the Long Run

March 31, 2022March 31, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

More evidence today that the economy remains robust and that the billions in election promises could unnecessarily add to price pressures being felt by businesses and consumers.

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Economics / Markets

Chinese Covid Cluster Starts to Bite Economically

March 31, 2022March 31, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

The Chinese economy slowed sharply in March, according to the first major survey of the impact of the upturn in Covid cases and the indirect impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Economics / Markets / Retail

Retailers Seen as the Budget’s Big Winners

March 30, 2022March 30, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

Analysts see retailers and other stocks selling goods or services to consumers as the main sharemarket beneficiaries of Tuesday night’s incentive-packed federal budget.

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Economics / Markets

Ratings Agencies Show Solidarity with Euro Majors

March 29, 2022March 29, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

An interesting set of ratings decisions from the major credit checking firms this week, especially in view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the impact on Europe in particular.

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Economics / Markets / Retail

Retail Continues on Road to Recovery

March 29, 2022March 29, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

Retail sales jumped a stronger than forecast 1.8% in February with shoppers continuing to spend up as the Covid Omicron fears of December and early January dissipated.

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Economics / Markets / Politics

The 2022-23 Federal Budget: A Review

March 29, 2022March 29, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

A federal election always makes for a giveaway budget and this year it’s no different. We take an in-depth look at what may well be Josh Frydenberg’s final budget as Treasurer.

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Economics / Markets / Politics

The 2022-23 Federal Budget: A Primer

March 27, 2022March 27, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

With the election looming, tomorrow’s 2022-23 federal budget will no doubt contain plenty of goodies – despite a big deficit – aimed at enabling the Liberal Party to hold onto office.

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Economics / Interest Rates / Markets

Powell Rate Comments Set Off Feeding Frenzy

March 23, 2022March 23, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

A game of one-upmanship has emerged among the US punditry since Jay Powell ramped up his rhetoric on Monday with regard to how aggressively the Fed would raise US rates.

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  • ALQ – Macquarie rates the stock as Outperform
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4Q reveals more focus on profit and cash flow

• LBY’s 4Q FY22 quarterly activities update showed continued solid growth in top line metrics, albeit slowing, with GMV of NZ$203m (+26% on pcp) and income of NZ$12.1m (+23% on pcp).
• Net Transaction Margin (NTM) disappointed at -0.5%, due to further increase in credit losses from 4.0% to 4.9% of GMV. However, new fraud and credit risk management tools have seen losses recover materially with NTM back to 1.2% in March and LBY is confident of further recovery in coming months.

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    Signs MOU with Ford Company – Kachi is now sold out!

    Lake Resources (LKE. ASX) – LKE has signed two non-binding MOU’s in the space of 10 days. Ford Company (Ford) has signed an MOU for ~25,000t/year and last week Hanwa, a Japanese commodity trader signed a MOU for up to 25,000t/year. Subject to execution, this is an amazing feat as Ford and Hanwa are prepared to enter into longer-term strategic partnerships with LKE. Commercial negotiations are still ongoing but are expected, especially if Ford & Hanwa inject new equity into LKE, to further de-risk the project financing & thus ensure LKE and Kachi are fully funded.

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      Strategic Vanadium-battery growth with Titanium & Iron earnings resiliency

      TNG Ltd is an ASX-listed technology owner and developer of the world-class Mount Peake near-surface vanadiferous titanomagnetite deposit. To unlock value, TNG will concentrate ore from its central Northern Territory mine for processing through its patented TIVAN® process produce three premium quality revenue streams: hi-purity vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) for steel alloys and Vanadium Redox Flow batteries, a quality titanium pigment for paints and a premium steel input with >64%Fe iron ore fines.

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        Promising exploration and development update while SOP prices continue to rise

        Two recent gravity surveys have considerably exceeded expectations and revealed potential for extensions to the existing MRE at Lake Throssell, plus a material growth opportunity at Lake Yeo. This reinforces the potential for a multi-decade, Tier-1 SOP production hub based around Lake Throssell.

        TMG is currently completing work towards the PFS due early 2023, including drilling to start in Q3 2022, evaporation trials and permitting activities. Results from these programs will support the PFS and any future resource upgrade.

        Benchmark SOP prices have risen to ~US$940/t due to recent geopolitical developments. The Oct 2021 Scoping Study assumed a SOP price of US$550/t and contained a sensitivity analysis showing every 10% increase in price drives a +$144m increase in the project NPV of $364m. The c.70% increase above the Scoping Study thus implies a project NPV of ~$1.4bn.

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          Biopharmas Hit, but Buying Opportunities Created

          The news being reported about the performance of biotechnology has been dour, to say the least, for some time now. Those dour articles have been deserved with the iShares Biotechnology Exchange-Traded Fund down 25% and the SPDR® S&P® Biotech ETF is down 45% from their highs. However, those articles are backward-looking, and successful investors need to be looking forward.

          Recently, however, an article in Nature Reviews Drug Discovery caught our eye which we believe should point the way forward for the vast majority of Australian biotechnology investors. This article indicates that, at least, two companies, Antisense Therapeutics (ANP) and Kazia Therapeutics (KZA), are right in the sweet spot in terms of the future of drug development.

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            Biopharmas Hit, but Buying Opportunities Created

            The news being reported about the performance of biotechnology has been dour, to say the least, for some time now. Those dour articles have been deserved with the iShares Biotechnology Exchange-Traded Fund down 25% and the SPDR® S&P® Biotech ETF is down 45% from their highs. However, those articles are backward-looking, and successful investors need to be looking forward.

            Recently, however, an article in Nature Reviews Drug Discovery caught our eye which we believe should point the way forward for the vast majority of Australian biotechnology investors. This article indicates that, at least, two companies, Antisense Therapeutics (ANP) and Kazia Therapeutics (KZA), are right in the sweet spot in terms of the future of drug development.

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              Coal prices up, debt down – It’s payback time

              Strong 1H22 but the real story unfolds in 2H22.

              TerraCom made two announcements to the ASX on the 28th February – the first was their 2021 Half Year 2021 result which indicated that TER continues to report strong operating metrics as well as enjoying buoyant thermal coal markets which is allowing them to pay down debt at an accelerated pace.

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                Hitting goals – Making four material announcements

                We initiated on Magnis Energy Technologies (MNS.ASX) in December 2021 and since then, MNS has made four material announcements. Firstly; a conditional offtake contract for 600,000t of graphite concentrate from the Tanzanian Nachu Project (net 100%) was signed with Traxys, a global
                commodities merchant with annual revenue of ~US$6Bn; secondly; semi autonomous production has started at battery gigafactory iM3NY, thirdly;
                exciting Extra Fast Charge battery tests were reported and most recently, the game changing launch of the Lithium Slim Energy Reserve battery platform, which supports C4V’s growing EFC capability.

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                  Increasing our Target

                  Despite the lower realised oil and gas price, which fell by 5.4% and 19.7% respectively in August, Calima managed to show improvement in its key business metrics.

                  We expect higher production in November due to the contribution by the new Thorsby wells which will be drilled in August/September which will see Calima meet its 2021 production guidance of 4,500 boe/d.

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                    Emerging Financial Wealth Advisory Group

                    WT Financial Group Limited (WTL) is a growing diversified financial services company, founded in 2010 and listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) in 2015. Its advice and product offerings are delivered primarily through a group of independent financial advisers operating as authorised representatives of WTL under its Wealth Today Pty Ltd (Wealth Today) and Sentry Group Pty Ltd (Sentry Group) dealer group operations. It has around 275 advisers across more than 200 financial advice practices Australia-wide. It also operates a direct-to-consumer operation under its Spring Financial Group brand.

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                      Immutep Taking the Fight to Cancer

                      In May 2021, Corporate Connect analyst Marc Sinatra published a comprehensive research report on ASX-listed biotech Immutep Ltd (ASX: IMM). So impressed was he with IMM that Corporate Connect felt it imperative that a follow-up report be released placing a valuation on the company, because the market was not seeing the vast potential of eftilagimod alpha (efti).

                      This follow-up report has been released today. Using comparables, after adding cash back to their EV estimate and dividing by the total number of issued shares, Corporate Connect now places the fair value of an Immutep share at $A2.20.

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                        Phillips 66 to acquire 16% in NVX – 12-month target price rises 7% through project de-risking

                        Phillips 66 (PSX) has entered into an agreement with NVX to acquire 77.9m new shares for US$150m (A$203m). PSX is the worlds largest producer of speciality petroleum coke a precursor for battery grade synthetic graphite anode materials found with an Enterprise Value of US$47.5Bn and assets of US$57Bn.

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                          Market leading lifelong learning platform technology company in Australia and SE Asia

                          PayGroup (PYG) delivers multi-country BPO services and cloud SaaS HCM solutions, assisting companies to manage employees in multiple, complex jurisdictions. The company has many growth opportunities, including new clients, new jurisdictions, new products, partner expansion, and new revenue sources. PYG’s scalable business model allows operating leverage and with savings from in-housing third party technology, support margin expansion.

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                            Market leading lifelong learning platform technology company in Australia and SE Asia

                            OpenLearning (OLL) is a higher education technology company that operates a scalable online learning platform through a software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model and provides a global marketplace of high quality courses for learners of all levels. Its primary customers are education providers based in Australia and South-East Asia (primarily Malaysia). OLL started operations in Australia in 2012 and expanded to Malaysia in 2015, Singapore in 2018, and recently also Indonesia.

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