Economics

The local economy moves further into centre stage ahead of the federal budget tomorrow week, China is showing more signs of slowdown, and Europe has dipped into recession.

The US jobs figure for April dominates data this week, but there are also some important central bank meetings, Chinese trade figures, and global manufacturing surveys.

The first estimate of March quarter economic growth for the US economy confirmed the upgrade from the Federal Reserve to the way it described the growing economic bounce back.

Wall Street dipped into the red in the final minutes of the session after the US Federal Reserve issued an upbeat assessment of the health of the American economy as it emerges from the pandemic.

Australia exported a record $14 billion worth of iron ore in March, a $2.5 billion increase from February as volumes recovered and prices surged to a series of new highs.

Economists think that headline inflation will surge from the March quarter’s annual rate of a weak 1.1% to more than 3% in the current June quarter.

The March quarter Consumer Price Index surprised with a smaller than expected rise of just 0.6% after a 0.9% in the December quarter.

Australian inflation dominates local events this week with a big quarterly rise from the December quarter but a modest annual increase forecast.

The health of the US economy takes centre stage this week with March quarter growth figures released, a meeting of the Fed, and then consumer spending and inflation data out on Friday.

There’s less than a month to go to the Federal Budget but what’s the betting that the parties involved have thought really hard about what might be needed in future years to drive growth?

As expected China’s March quarter economic growth boomed – mostly due to a comparison with the sharp fall in the March quarter of 2020.

The March labour force data was strong but we won’t get a true picture of the health of the jobs market post JobKeeper until this time in May and then in June.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has again kept its key interest rate on hold in a repeat of its previous decision this year, citing a summer slowdown in economic activity.

The Australian economy made it through the end of JobKeeper and reduction in JobSeeker payments in a healthy state, according to the March business survey from the NAB.

China’s trade performance surged in March as imports grew at their strongest rate in four years while exports continued the solid growth seen in the past few months.

While the housing market goes from strength to strength, the problems for listed retail shopping mall owners and their privately controlled counterparts don’t look like easing any time soon.

Another big week for business, economies and investors/consumers, with plenty of data coming out, led by the latest local jobs figures and some key US economic data.

Data issued on Friday by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics revealed the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in March compared to a fall of 0.2% in February.

The US is booming, or getting close to one. The IMF says so, the Fed thinks so and now Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase and America’s senior banker agrees.

According to the IMF, the global economy will be powering out of 2020 thanks to the rapid rise in vaccinations in the US and the near $US2 trillion Biden stimulus program.

As expected the Reserve Bank has left the official cash rate unchanged at 0.1% and again emphasised that it is prepared to wait until it sees stronger wages and inflation.

The US economy is booming and will get boomier as vaccinations build, confidence grows and the Biden stimulus really kicks in from this month and through June.

ABS housing data on Wednesday revealed a surprise surge in both private and non-private dwelling approvals, thanks in part to the federal government’s first home buyers’ assistance package.

Activity in China’s huge factory and services sector grew faster than forecast in March from February when it was slowed by the annual Lunar New Year holiday.

February was a record month for Australia’s trade account, with the $8.1 billion figure marking the first time the country has seen three months in a row of $8 billion-plus goods surpluses.

New Zealand’s economic growth for the fourth quarter contracted 1% – a worse outcome than the flat result that was forecast by the country’s central bank and many in the markets.

The unemployment rate dropped to a better than expected 5.8% in February from 6.4% at the start of the year after 89,000 new jobs were created in the month.

Detailed production data for January and February (combined) – especially that for crude steel – adds to questions about whether China’s current economic rebound is slowing.