Diary: A Full Dance Card
A big week for markets and investors – although trading will be shortened because of the US Memorial Day holiday today – that should give us a good idea how the world economy is travelling and where it is heading.
Read MoreCurrencies
Diary: The Devil’s in the Details
There will be some low-level economic data releases and central bank decisions this week, while in Australia it’s the start of the lead up to the release of the March quarter National Accounts and GDP figures.
Read MoreTales from the Cryptoverse
The US Treasury has thrown a major obstacle at cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin by demanding that all transactions of $US10,000 and above have to be reported to the US tax department, the IRS.
Read MoreCurrencies / Economics / Fixed Interest / Funds / Interest Rates / Markets / Shane Oliver / Strategy
The Return of Geopolitical Risk? What to Watch over the Remainder of 2021
In his weekly Insights column, Dr Shane Oliver from AMP Capital considers the re-emergence of geopolitical risk and what to look for over the rest of the year.
Read MoreMoody’s Backs the Green
While some analysts remain bullish on the Australian dollar, thinking that after 2020’s rebound against the greenback it still has some mileage left, ratings agency Moody’s begs to differ.
Read MoreBitcoin – It’s Not a Currency, it’s Not a Capital Asset… So What Is it?
In this week’s Insights column, AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver takes us on an in-depth tour of the wild and woolly world of Bitcoin.
Read MoreGood Times Roll on for Commodities, $A
The Aussie dollar and major commodities continued their strong start to the year with some positive moves in overnight trading.
Read MoreGermany Seems Poised to Only Ever Do the Minimum to Support the Euro
Public disgruntlement stops Berlin cementing a currency union that helps make the country an export dynamo, writes Magellan’s Michael Collins.
Read MoreMarket Trends: February 2021
David Bassanese from BetaShares runs through his thoughts on how the various markets look likely to play out this month.
Read MoreSeven Key Charts for Investors to Watch
AMP Capital’s Dr Shane Oliver breaks down markets across the spectrum and around the globe in his weekly Insights column.
Read MoreCommodities / Currencies / Economics / Fixed Interest / Funds / Interest Rates / Markets / Shane Oliver
US Political Protests, Inflation and Rising Bond Yields
AMP Capital’s Dr Shane Oliver breaks down markets across the spectrum and around the globe in his weekly Insights column.
Read MoreImpeachment News, Beige Book Weigh on Markets
While the second impeachment of Donald Trump held all the attention in markets on Wednesday, the real threat to the US economy was exposed in the latest Beige Book of economic anecdotes collected by the US Federal Reserve ahead of its first meeting of the year on January 26 and 27.
Read MoreCurrency Hedging – What to Consider
When investors choose to invest internationally, they also need to consider the implications of movements in the Australian dollar relative to the associated foreign currency exposure.
Read More2021 – A List of Lists Regarding the Macro Investment Outlook
2020 turned out far better for diversified investors than had been feared when the pandemic hit, with average balanced growth superannuation funds looking like they have returned around 3%. This followed around 15% last year. But can returns hold up?
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No clear signals for currency markets as we head into 2021
2020 saw the US dollar post its biggest yearly loss since 2017 and the Aussie dollar hit 33 month highs in one of its strongest performances in years. How do they look in 2021?
Read MoreA$ Breaks 76 US Cents, Wall St Creeps Higher, ASX Set For Flat Friday
The buoyant mid-year economic update and solid November jobs data have added to the headache about the strength of the Aussie dollar at the Reserve Bank as we head towards the end of the year and the long summer break.
Read MoreWeak Jobs Data Sees US Dollar Sink To Two-And-A-Half Year Low
The US dollar fell to a 2-1/2-year low on Friday and the Aussie dollar remained 28-month highs after November’s jobs report for the US disappointed. Friday’s sharp rise in iron ore prices could see the A$ jump back towards 75 US cents off the back of a 7 year plus high for iron ore.
Read MoreAnalysts Pour Cold Water On Trump’s China Currency War
So what will President Trump do now – the Chinese are not, as he claims, using the value of their currency to undermine the US dollar. The reverse is happening – the Chinese government is allowing the yuan to rise and has been allowing the appreciation to happen for more than a month.
Read MoreFitch Downgrades US Debt A Notch To ‘Negative’
The already weaker greenback looks set to wobble even more after Fitch Ratings revised the outlook on the United States’ triple-A rating to negative from stable. Fitch’s decision comes at the end of a month where the US$ dropped by around 4.1% against a basket of six major currencies.
Read MoreUS Dollar Breaking Down, Gold & The $A Breaking Up – What Does It Mean For Investors?
The price of gold has now broken out to a record high and the Australian dollar has risen 30% from its coronavirus panic low in March and broken above $US0.70. What’s driving this and what does it mean for investors? This note looks at the main issues.
Read MoreLiontown Resources Upgrades Kathleen Valley Lithium Project
LTR’s ongoing drilling has confirmed the strike and dip continuity of the Kathleen Valley mineralised system, which has now been defined over at least 1.7km and remains open along strike and at depth, with multiple zones of high-grade mineralisation intersected.
Read MoreFive Reasons Why The $A May Be Close To The Bottom
There is good reason to believe we may be close to the low in the $A (or have already seen it): it has already had a large fall; it is just below fair value; the global economic cycle is likely to turn up next year; sentiment towards the $A is very negative; and the current account is in surplus.
Read MoreA$ Teeters On 10-Year Low Following Dovish RBA Minutes
The Australian dollar fell sharply yesterday to levels not seen since the dying months of the GFC in 2009 after the Reserve Bank’s June board meeting minutes made it clear there would be more rate cuts to come.
Read MoreAustralian Growth Will Be Constrained But Here’s Nine Reasons Why Recession Is Unlikely
Several positives suggest recession is unlikely: the current account deficit has collapsed; the $A helps stabilise the economy; the drag from falling mining investment is over; there is scope for extra fiscal stimulus; infrastructure spending is booming; there has been no sign of panic property selling; economic policy remains sensible; population growth remains strong; and the RBA can still do more.
Read MoreAussie Disconnected From Commodity Prices
Long the “commodity currency” ANZ Bank economists note the Aussie dollar is no longer being supported by commodity prices as has typically been the case.
Read MoreThe $A Still Has More Downside, But A Lot Of The Weakness Is Behind Us
Given the downside risks for the $A and that being short the $A is a good hedge against threats to the global outlook it still makes sense for Australian investors to maintain a decent exposure to foreign currency via un-hedged global investments.
Read More$US Exposure Can Now Be Gained Via An ETF
ETF Securities’ ZUSD ETF offers investor a cheap and effective US Dollar currency play. ETFS’ Head of Sales, Kanish Chugh, tells Informed Investor more.
Read MoreWhat Can We Expect From Today’s GDP Number?
Today’s national accounts for the three months to December are not expected to be brilliant. In fact, at best they could be between 0.2 percentage points to 0.4 – while some pessimists believe the reading could be a negative 0.1 because of the weakness in household income.
Read MoreRBNZ Maintains Holding Pattern
New Zealand’s Reserve Bank has followed its Australian counterpart again in not moving its key interest rate.
Read MoreWeak PPI The Latest Sign Of China’s Slowdown
More evidence that parts of the Chinese economy are slowing as sluggish demand takes hold with producer price inflation posting the slowest rise in five months in September.
Read MoreChina Eases Reserve Requirements To Spur Growth
China’s central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio for most commercial banks for the 4th time in 2018 as it seeks to offset the slowing pace of economic activity.
Read MoreThe Oz Dollar Looks Vulnerable
Famous last words, of course, but it looks like US78c was the Aussie dollar’s peak and it could be downhill from here.
Read MoreChina’s Currency
As for China, and the doom scenarios about it, here’s a chart of the renminbi US dollar exchange over the past 12 months:
Read MoreKohler’s Charts – US Dollar Flexes Its Muscles
The US dollar surged again on Thursday after the Fed raised rates for the second time, and also raised the forecasts for next year. It’s now up 6% since before the US election.
Read MoreKohler’s Charts – Commodities & The A$ Diverge
The Aussie dollar broke below US74c and is clearly the thing to watch this week as markets continue to digest the result of the US election.
Read MoreStock Opportunities From A Weaker AUD
In recent days the Australian dollar ($A) has undertaken a marked depreciation against the US dollar ($US). It remains to be seen how far this will continue, but most commentators (including Clime) have long been suggesting that a significant adjustment is on the cards.
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