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Tom Stevenson

Tom Stevenson is Investment Director at Fidelity International. Tom joined Fidelity in March 2008. He acts as a spokesman and commentator on investments and is responsible for defining and articulating the Personal Investing business’s investment view. Tom is an expert on markets, investment trends and themes.

Funds / Markets

History May Be Rhyming, but Should You Really Opt to Sell in Tech?

May 24, 2022 - by Tom Stevenson

The renewal of the Cold War; an energy crisis; a re-run of the 2000-2003 technology sell-off – we’re running over familiar ground. History may not repeat itself, but it’s rhyming.

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Funds / Markets

Why Buying the Global Shares Dip May Make Sense

May 16, 2022May 16, 2022 - by Tom Stevenson

With global equity markets having pulled back substantially in recent months, Fidelity’s Tom Stevenson offers up six reasons why buying the dip may make sense for investors.

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Funds / Markets / Technology

The FAANGs: Are tech sector earnings one size fits all?

May 5, 2022May 5, 2022 - by Tom Stevenson

Fidelity’s Tom Stevenson explains why he believes the FAANGs are driven by very different commercial influences and investors may not be served well by lumping them together.

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Funds / Interest Rates / Markets

The Yield Curve: A crystal ball for the next recession?

April 20, 2022April 20, 2022 - by Tom Stevenson

Fidelity’s Tom Stevenson looks at one of the crystal balls investors use to identify turning points in the economy: the bond market, specifically, long and short-dated bond yields.

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Funds / Markets

Four Reasons to Be Positive on China

April 6, 2022April 6, 2022 - by Tom Stevenson

It’s not hard to see why investors have shied away from China recently. Fidelity’s Tom Stevenson looks at why now might be the right time to take another look in that direction.

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Funds / Markets

What I Wish I’d Known about Investing at 30

March 17, 2022March 17, 2022 - by Tom Stevenson

Youth, as the old adage goes, is wasted on the young. Fidelity’s Tom Stevenson has some sage advice from his time in the markets for investors starting out on their journey.

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Funds / Markets

Investing Mistakes During a Crisis

March 9, 2022March 9, 2022 - by Tom Stevenson

The events of the past week have handed us a long list of lessons about how we should and should not manage our portfolios at times of crisis. Here are a few of the more important ones.

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Funds / Markets

The NEW Balanced Portfolio

November 11, 2021November 11, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

As Fidelity’s Tom Stevenson writes in his regular column, when it comes to monetary policy the watersheds are even less obvious than for a stock market index or share price.

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ESG / Funds / Markets

Climate Investing: The inconvenient truth

November 1, 2021November 1, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

As we approach the COP-26 climate summit in Glasgow this week, we as investors know what to do about climate change, and that it means addressing some inconvenient questions.

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Funds / Markets

Should We Be Worried about Global Markets?

September 20, 2021September 20, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

Given the turmoil currently overwhelming global markets and economies, Fidelity’s Tom Stevenson tries to answer one of the most pertinent questions at the moment: should we be worried?

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Funds / Markets

Timing the Market

August 4, 2021August 4, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

You might reasonably think that investors are worrying about two contradictory things at the moment. On the face of it, that makes no sense. They can’t both be a problem at the same time, can they?

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Funds / Markets

Inflation: Friend or Foe?

July 26, 2021July 26, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

Governments like a bit of inflation. Central banks think they can achieve it. It’s the rest of us who will have to deal with the consequences if they can’t, argues Fidelity’s Tom Stevenson.

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ESG / Funds / Markets

ESG: Fad or Future?

June 29, 2021June 29, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

In his regular column, Tom Stevenson from Fidelity breaks down hot topic Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance – ESG – and asks the question: fad? or future?

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Economics / Funds / Markets

Inflation Expectations

June 21, 2021June 21, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

As humans we are hard-wired to be anxious when things are not what we expect. There’s a good reason for that. It protects us from danger. Fidelity’s Tom Stevenson with more.

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Commodities / Funds / Markets

Is China’s Commodities Speculation Counterintuitive?

June 2, 2021June 2, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

Fidelity’s Tom Stevenson is back with his regular column to look at what’s happening with China’s recent clampdown on alleged speculation, fake news and hoarding in the commodities markets.

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Funds / Markets / Technology

ESG, Crypto and the Power of Social Media

May 17, 2021May 18, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

Fidelity’s Tom Stevenson is back with his regular column, and this time he picks apart the recent comments by Elon Musk and looks at cryptocurrencies in an ESG context.

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Funds / Markets

Is Now the Perfect Time to Give Your Portfolio a Mid-Flight Check?

May 11, 2021May 12, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

A year into the most remarkable stockmarket recovery we are ever likely to experience, now is the perfect time to give portfolios a mid-flight check.

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Funds / Markets

Middle Child Syndrome

May 6, 2021May 6, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

The holy grail of investing should not be to buy an OK company at a great price but to buy a great one at an OK price. Tom Stevenson from Fidelity shares some thoughts on how to do so.

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Funds / Markets / Politics

The Oldest President with the Ambition of the Youngest

April 13, 2021April 13, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

As Fidelity’s Tom Stevenson explains in his regular column, Joe Biden is America’s oldest ever president who, in the end, has to persuade someone to pick up the tab for his youthful ambition.

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Funds / Markets

Can You Have it All?

March 22, 2021March 22, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

Fidelity International Investment Director Tom Stevenson tackles the age-old question we’d all dearly like to know the answer to: Can you have it all?

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Funds / Markets

8 Lessons from 12 Remarkable Months

February 18, 2021February 17, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

Fidelity International’s Tom Stevenson has a look back at 2020 and finds some lessons to be learnt from the remarkable year just passed.

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Funds / Markets

Beating Them at Their Own GameStop

February 5, 2021February 5, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

Fidelity International’s Tom Stevenson gives us his typically unique take on all of the GameStop / Reddit Army shenanigans that have played out over the past fortnight.

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Funds / Markets

Riding it Out

January 28, 2021January 28, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

The last year has been characterised by gloomy headlines but a counter-intuitively buoyant stock market. Even experienced investors who understand that this is how markets work are starting to call time on the remarkable rally since last spring.

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Markets / Politics

Inauguration Inflation

January 19, 2021January 26, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

With Joe Biden sworn in as America’s 46th president on Wednesday, he needs to shift the focus from his predecessor’s graceless departure to the huge economic challenge ahead.

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Funds / Markets

The Unknown Unknowns

January 19, 2021January 19, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

This time last year we were getting ready for the ‘known unknowns’ – the unpredictable events that we nevertheless knew were on their way. In the end, of course, the year was dominated by the mother of all ‘unknown unknowns’.

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Funds

6 themes shaping 2021

December 2, 2020January 19, 2021 - by Tom Stevenson

The past year has not smiled on forecasters. Making predictions about 2021 therefore demands even more humility than usual.

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  • Bell Potter LIC Weekly: Quality Growth – Going, Going, Gone
  • S32 – Citi rates the stock as Buy
  • ALQ – Morgan Stanley rates the stock as Equal-weight
  • SLC – Morgans rates the stock as Add
  • FPH – Citi rates the stock as Buy
  • ALQ – Macquarie rates the stock as Outperform
  • NAN – Morgans rates the stock as Add
  • Lunch Report: 26 May, 2022

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4Q reveals more focus on profit and cash flow

• LBY’s 4Q FY22 quarterly activities update showed continued solid growth in top line metrics, albeit slowing, with GMV of NZ$203m (+26% on pcp) and income of NZ$12.1m (+23% on pcp).
• Net Transaction Margin (NTM) disappointed at -0.5%, due to further increase in credit losses from 4.0% to 4.9% of GMV. However, new fraud and credit risk management tools have seen losses recover materially with NTM back to 1.2% in March and LBY is confident of further recovery in coming months.

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    Signs MOU with Ford Company – Kachi is now sold out!

    Lake Resources (LKE. ASX) – LKE has signed two non-binding MOU’s in the space of 10 days. Ford Company (Ford) has signed an MOU for ~25,000t/year and last week Hanwa, a Japanese commodity trader signed a MOU for up to 25,000t/year. Subject to execution, this is an amazing feat as Ford and Hanwa are prepared to enter into longer-term strategic partnerships with LKE. Commercial negotiations are still ongoing but are expected, especially if Ford & Hanwa inject new equity into LKE, to further de-risk the project financing & thus ensure LKE and Kachi are fully funded.

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      Strategic Vanadium-battery growth with Titanium & Iron earnings resiliency

      TNG Ltd is an ASX-listed technology owner and developer of the world-class Mount Peake near-surface vanadiferous titanomagnetite deposit. To unlock value, TNG will concentrate ore from its central Northern Territory mine for processing through its patented TIVAN® process produce three premium quality revenue streams: hi-purity vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) for steel alloys and Vanadium Redox Flow batteries, a quality titanium pigment for paints and a premium steel input with >64%Fe iron ore fines.

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        Promising exploration and development update while SOP prices continue to rise

        Two recent gravity surveys have considerably exceeded expectations and revealed potential for extensions to the existing MRE at Lake Throssell, plus a material growth opportunity at Lake Yeo. This reinforces the potential for a multi-decade, Tier-1 SOP production hub based around Lake Throssell.

        TMG is currently completing work towards the PFS due early 2023, including drilling to start in Q3 2022, evaporation trials and permitting activities. Results from these programs will support the PFS and any future resource upgrade.

        Benchmark SOP prices have risen to ~US$940/t due to recent geopolitical developments. The Oct 2021 Scoping Study assumed a SOP price of US$550/t and contained a sensitivity analysis showing every 10% increase in price drives a +$144m increase in the project NPV of $364m. The c.70% increase above the Scoping Study thus implies a project NPV of ~$1.4bn.

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          Biopharmas Hit, but Buying Opportunities Created

          The news being reported about the performance of biotechnology has been dour, to say the least, for some time now. Those dour articles have been deserved with the iShares Biotechnology Exchange-Traded Fund down 25% and the SPDR® S&P® Biotech ETF is down 45% from their highs. However, those articles are backward-looking, and successful investors need to be looking forward.

          Recently, however, an article in Nature Reviews Drug Discovery caught our eye which we believe should point the way forward for the vast majority of Australian biotechnology investors. This article indicates that, at least, two companies, Antisense Therapeutics (ANP) and Kazia Therapeutics (KZA), are right in the sweet spot in terms of the future of drug development.

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            Biopharmas Hit, but Buying Opportunities Created

            The news being reported about the performance of biotechnology has been dour, to say the least, for some time now. Those dour articles have been deserved with the iShares Biotechnology Exchange-Traded Fund down 25% and the SPDR® S&P® Biotech ETF is down 45% from their highs. However, those articles are backward-looking, and successful investors need to be looking forward.

            Recently, however, an article in Nature Reviews Drug Discovery caught our eye which we believe should point the way forward for the vast majority of Australian biotechnology investors. This article indicates that, at least, two companies, Antisense Therapeutics (ANP) and Kazia Therapeutics (KZA), are right in the sweet spot in terms of the future of drug development.

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              Coal prices up, debt down – It’s payback time

              Strong 1H22 but the real story unfolds in 2H22.

              TerraCom made two announcements to the ASX on the 28th February – the first was their 2021 Half Year 2021 result which indicated that TER continues to report strong operating metrics as well as enjoying buoyant thermal coal markets which is allowing them to pay down debt at an accelerated pace.

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                Hitting goals – Making four material announcements

                We initiated on Magnis Energy Technologies (MNS.ASX) in December 2021 and since then, MNS has made four material announcements. Firstly; a conditional offtake contract for 600,000t of graphite concentrate from the Tanzanian Nachu Project (net 100%) was signed with Traxys, a global
                commodities merchant with annual revenue of ~US$6Bn; secondly; semi autonomous production has started at battery gigafactory iM3NY, thirdly;
                exciting Extra Fast Charge battery tests were reported and most recently, the game changing launch of the Lithium Slim Energy Reserve battery platform, which supports C4V’s growing EFC capability.

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                  Increasing our Target

                  Despite the lower realised oil and gas price, which fell by 5.4% and 19.7% respectively in August, Calima managed to show improvement in its key business metrics.

                  We expect higher production in November due to the contribution by the new Thorsby wells which will be drilled in August/September which will see Calima meet its 2021 production guidance of 4,500 boe/d.

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                    Emerging Financial Wealth Advisory Group

                    WT Financial Group Limited (WTL) is a growing diversified financial services company, founded in 2010 and listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) in 2015. Its advice and product offerings are delivered primarily through a group of independent financial advisers operating as authorised representatives of WTL under its Wealth Today Pty Ltd (Wealth Today) and Sentry Group Pty Ltd (Sentry Group) dealer group operations. It has around 275 advisers across more than 200 financial advice practices Australia-wide. It also operates a direct-to-consumer operation under its Spring Financial Group brand.

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                      Immutep Taking the Fight to Cancer

                      In May 2021, Corporate Connect analyst Marc Sinatra published a comprehensive research report on ASX-listed biotech Immutep Ltd (ASX: IMM). So impressed was he with IMM that Corporate Connect felt it imperative that a follow-up report be released placing a valuation on the company, because the market was not seeing the vast potential of eftilagimod alpha (efti).

                      This follow-up report has been released today. Using comparables, after adding cash back to their EV estimate and dividing by the total number of issued shares, Corporate Connect now places the fair value of an Immutep share at $A2.20.

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                        Phillips 66 to acquire 16% in NVX – 12-month target price rises 7% through project de-risking

                        Phillips 66 (PSX) has entered into an agreement with NVX to acquire 77.9m new shares for US$150m (A$203m). PSX is the worlds largest producer of speciality petroleum coke a precursor for battery grade synthetic graphite anode materials found with an Enterprise Value of US$47.5Bn and assets of US$57Bn.

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                          Market leading lifelong learning platform technology company in Australia and SE Asia

                          PayGroup (PYG) delivers multi-country BPO services and cloud SaaS HCM solutions, assisting companies to manage employees in multiple, complex jurisdictions. The company has many growth opportunities, including new clients, new jurisdictions, new products, partner expansion, and new revenue sources. PYG’s scalable business model allows operating leverage and with savings from in-housing third party technology, support margin expansion.

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                            Market leading lifelong learning platform technology company in Australia and SE Asia

                            OpenLearning (OLL) is a higher education technology company that operates a scalable online learning platform through a software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model and provides a global marketplace of high quality courses for learners of all levels. Its primary customers are education providers based in Australia and South-East Asia (primarily Malaysia). OLL started operations in Australia in 2012 and expanded to Malaysia in 2015, Singapore in 2018, and recently also Indonesia.

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