NCM – Citi rates the stock as Hold, High Risk

The broker’s gold price estimates have been upgraded by 4% to US$856/oz in 2009 and 3% to US$925/oz in 2010. It expects gold to once again test US$1,000/oz in 2H09, driven by continued investment flows and an unstable financial system. This sees earnings estimates for both Newcrest ((NCM)) and Lihir ((LGL)) upgraded 10-21% in 09/10 with the broker noting further upside risk at spot prices, particularly for NCM given its copper kicker. Earnings upgrades have increased the target to $37 (from $35.90), while the Hold is maintained. Sector: Materials.

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NCM – Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Hold

There was nothing flash in the December quarter production report, but Deutsche Bank analysts are keeping the faith the company will work through its low grade phase. Everything should start becoming better from mid-year onwards, they believe. Management lowered production guidance for the year and this has caused some cutting to forecasts. Price target lowered to $29. Sector: Materials.

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New Hope For Newcrest

Just one month back and we were in the maelstrom that was the beginning of the explosion of the financial crisis, plans were announced, some big American institutions were bailed out while others weren’t, short selling was banned, plans were approved by governments and more plans were announced. In short, it was chaos. But one thing that made at least a little sense was that gold started to rise again as investors finally looked to the safer haven it offered. And Newcrest (NCM) rode the wave.

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Newcrest Sold Off On Cost Rise

Just as the smaller Kagara Ltd suffered on Wednesday and again yesterday from reporting unexpectedly poor profit figures in a quarterly report, major gold miner, Newcrest Mining saw its shares pounded after revealing more cost problems at its huge Telfer in Western Australia.

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Tantalising Telfer

Australia's intrepid gold analysts have just returned from a two-day tour, 450km inland from Port Hedland in north west Western Australia, having fought off the tyranny of distance, the dust and flies, the bruising week-long trek by camel and the loss of one or two junior staff, who some say simply wandered off. Their destination was Australia's second largest goldmine – Telfer – a 25moz open cut and underground resource pipped only by Kalgoorlie's Fimiston open mine, which is best known as the Super Pit. As Fimiston belongs to Barrick and Newmont, Newcrest's (NCM) Telfer is effectively Australia's largest locally owned gold resource, and one of the largest resources on the planet.

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