To my mind, the $A appears on the cusp of its next major move lower. If you were not already a buyer of US dollars (such as through a $US ETF), the $A recent rally would have been a great time to get onboard.

Westpac’s decision to unilaterally lift home loan interest rates by 0.2% – and the likelihood that the other majors will now follow – has raised the chances that the Reserve Bank of Australia will counter the move by lowering official interest rates.

From peak to recent trough, the decline in the Australian share market over recent months has been 16.5% – or very close to the “bear market” definition of a 20% decline. To my mind, we will likely see stocks dragged somewhat lower before this period of corrective market activity is over – we will, as least definitionally, tumble into a bear market.

The Fed’s decision to again delay raising official interest rates in September can only be described as ludicrous in view of the fact the US economy is almost near full employment. Indeed, America’s jobless rate is a mere 5.1% and the economy is almost near fully employed.

What was once expected to be a temporary stock market correction – due to both overvaluation and imminent US interest rate hikes – appears at risk of turning into something more enduring if the Australian economy fails to lift itself from the mire sometime soon.

Markets interpreted the minutes from the July Federal Reserve meeting as reducing the risk of a September interest rate “lift off” – but to my mind that just seemed wishful thinking. I still think September is a good bet. Worryingly markets don’t yet seem to have priced in this risk – the sell-off in recent days appears to reflect concerns over China and oil prices.

Every commentator around the country has noticed an intriguing change of language from the Reserve Bank of Australia when it comes to the Australian dollar. But by my reckoning, the implications of this change have been largely misinterpreted.

All smoke and mirrors – no fire.

Contrary to consensus market opinion, I’m hoping Greece does fail to seal an 11th hour agreement with its creditors. If it does so, it won’t change any of Greece’s underlying problems and will only “kick the can down the road” a little further.

The warnings by both Federal Treasury Secretary John Fraser and Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens over Sydney house prices in recent times has led some analysts to suggests interest rates are even less likely to fall further this year.

The latest survey of business investment intentions from the Australian Bureau of Statistics made for very bleak reading. Not only is the non-mining sector not revising up their capital spending plans – as anticipated by the Reserve Bank of Australia – they have actually revised them down. Allowing for the differences between expected and actual investment outcomes over time, the latest survey suggests overall private business investment will fall by around 20% next financial year.

Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey’s claim that the Government’s latest budget provides a “credible path back to surplus” has been widely derided – as is usual. According to the Budget papers, the now yawning budget deficit of $35 billion expected for 2015-16 (2.1% of GDP) is then projected to gradually shrink over the next few years, such that by 2019-20 it should again be back in the black.

Despite Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens’ concerns about Sydney property prices, chances are the RBA will finally deliver the second official interest rate cut for the year on Tuesday afternoon.

We’re only a few weeks from the next Federal Budget and already the omens are not good. Due to the slump in commodity prices, and ongoing general weakness in the economy, we know that the Budget will contain another confidence jarring write down in government revenues. Prime Minister Tony Abbott this past week hinted the loss could be around $30 billion over the four year forward estimate period.

The differences in philosophy between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the United States Federal Reserve are becoming starker, which will not make of the job of the RBA any easier in coming months.

Late last year I suggested the Reserve Bank of Australia “may well cut interest rates in the new year”, though with hindsight I was not strong enough with my view. The glory in making such a bold call went to other economists such as Bill Evans at Westpac.

To my mind, the case for monetary policy tightening in the United State is a “no brainer". So it bemuses me to see in the latest Fed policy minutes the world’s most important central bank is still dithering over when to raise interest rates.

The “surprise” decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates this week has mixed implications for the overall equity market outlook. But it does re-affirm two key themes I have been emphasising for the past year – go for yield and companies with offshore earnings exposure.

The downbeat outlook for the economy as reflected in this past week’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook suggest the Reserve Bank of Australia may well cut interest rates in the New Year – despite the recent declines in the Australian dollar.

With global equity markets continuing to rise, more and more investors are starting to fret that the party might be about to end sometime soon. As the saying goes, however, equity prices tend to climb a “wall of worry” – as long as there’s at least a vocal minority worrying about the market, chances are that prices will keep moving higher.

The trend is your friend in financial markets, but investors also need to be wary when a strong consensus emerges on the likely price direction in any one market. To my mind, bond yields and share prices now seem most vulnerable to a shift in currently consensus bullish sentiment, though this may well entrench the other consensus trade of selling the Australian dollar and gold.

If we’re not careful the nervous nellies that continually worry about Australian house prices risk talking the economy into an even more serious downturn. In repeated public speeches in recent weeks, Reserve Bank officials have hinted that – along with ASIC – it is considering imposing credit lending controls for investors, especially in Sydney and Melbourne.

Gold prices had a long a glorious run during the commodity price upswing and then during the early stages of global economic recovery from the 2008 financial crisis. But along with the commodity prices and the Australian dollar more broadly, gold prices peaked around mid-2011, and it has largely been one-way traffic downward ever since.

There is a sea change underway across the Australian investment landscape, and investors need to be ready to capitalise on the emerging new trends.

As has been the case in Japan, the decision by the European Central Bank to ratchet up its monetary stimulus program will do little to improve the region’s ailing domestic demand outlook. The move is best seen as yet another round in the “global currency wars”, in which one economy tries to boost its own exports at the expense of others.

Despite steady improvement in the United States economy, Fed officials and market analysts still talk of the first official US interest rate hike not taking place until “sometime next year.”

The Australian economy is not in a great place right now, as a lack of competitive pressure in many sectors is adding to inflation, while a lack of growth drivers is keeping unemployment relatively high.