Stephen Koukoulas – China Inflation

The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is being held amid a week where there is a torrent of data on the Chinese economy. In terms of the economy, the National Congress is likely to keep a focus on economic and financial stability whilst ensuring the risks from financial pressures linked to risks in the banking and property sectors are carefully monitored and managed.

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Stephen Koukoulas – Housing Finance

With the eyes of the Reserve Bank firmly on the housing market, the release of the housing finance data will be scrutinised for more clues on the extent of the cooling in demand for housing. Over recent months, there has been a cooling in housing finance growth as a mix of tighter regulation, a lift in mortgage rates for investors and a more general souring in mood towards housing have all impacted.

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Stephen Koukoulas – Labour Force Data

The labour force release will dominate the Australian data calendar next week with the highlights being the estimates of spare capacity in the labour market. The key points will be the rate of unemployment (currently stuck around 5.5 to 5.75%), the underemployment rate (currently around 8.5 to 9 per cent) and, linked to those, the momentum in jobs growth in both full-time and part-time work.

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Stephen Koukoulas – All Eyes On Jackson Hole

The world’s central bankers and a plethora of economists will gather at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA, for an annual get together with the topic this year, “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy”. While that is an important topic as the world continues to lurch unevenly from the global crisis which started 10 years ago, the market will be looking at the speeches and discussion for clues on monetary policy settings.

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The Week That Was

The Bank of Canada (akin to our Reserve Bank of Australia) shocked just about everyone with a decision to hike official interest rates for the first time in 7 years. The 25 basis point rate hike took the rate to 0.75 per cent, with the market consensus suggesting the move was based on a more upbeat pace of economic expansion rather than inflation, which continues to track below the BoC target.

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Stephen Koukoulas – Where To For Wages?

One reason for the low inflation and moderate growth trends in the economy has been the sharp downturn in wages growth. Overall, annual wages growth has dropped from around 4 per cent just under a decade ago to a record low 1.9 per cent. Private sector wages growth has registered a more severe weakening than public sector wages, in part due to the rapid casualisation of work in the private sector.

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Stephen Koukoulas – Jobs Data

Speaking of a muddling economy, next week sees the release of the all-important monthly labour force data. While the monthly numbers on employment are notoriously volatile, they will be a vital update on the lay of the economic land. With the economy yet to get sustained traction towards stronger growth, the readings for full time and part time jobs plus unemployment will be vital to judgments of just how strong (weak) the economy really is.

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Stephen Koukoulas – Capex Data

The big news next week is the release of private sector business investment data. Since the peak in 2011, business investment has been in free-fall, driven by the end of the mining investment boom. That said, even non-mining investment has been disappointing with zero growth in recent years. As a share of GDP, business investment has fallen from a peak of 19 per cent to 13 per cent and is likely to fall further before finding a floor.

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