Chilwa Minerals advances exploration and Nasdaq listing as valuation revised to A$1.78

Chilwa Minerals (ASX: CHW) has made further progress at its Lake Chilwa Critical Minerals Project in Malawi, with an expanded mineral resource estimate, continued exploration success and the completion of its Nasdaq listing. In its latest research update, Trim Capital has revised its valuation of Chilwa Minerals to A$1.78 per share, down from A$1.83 previously, reflecting weaker valuation multiples across comparable mining companies. Despite the modest reduction, the revised valuation represents approximately 145% upside from the A$0.725 share price used in the report. The update incorporates the company’s FY26 financial results, a 52% increase in its heavy mineral sands resource estimate to 172 million tonnes and progress across its rare earth elements and niobium exploration programs.

Chilwa Minerals completed its Nasdaq listing on 1 October 2026, issuing 625,000 American Depositary Shares (ADS) at US$5.60 each. Each ADS represents 10 ordinary shares and includes a warrant to purchase an additional ADS at the same price within five years. Trim Capital views the listing as a positive development, providing access to US capital markets and additional funding to advance the project towards its targeted decision to mine by mid-2028. The report estimates initial proceeds of approximately A$5 million to A$5.8 million, sufficient to fund two to three quarters of operating and investment expenditure based on FY26 spending levels. Further proceeds of around A$6 million could be received if the associated warrants are exercised. While the listing occurred later than initially anticipated, Trim Capital considers it an important milestone in the company’s development strategy.

Exploration activity across the Mposa and Mpyupyu deposits has strengthened Chilwa’s resource position, with its total heavy mineral sands mineral resource estimate increasing by 52% from 113 million tonnes to 172 million tonnes. A key development was the expansion of the Mpyupyu resource from approximately 51 million tonnes to 110 million tonnes, alongside an increase in the proportion of Measured and Indicated resources from 49% to 89%. The results have positioned Mpyupyu as the company’s first potential heavy mineral sands development, ahead of Mposa, which had previously been considered the likely initial production area. Additional exploration at Mpyupyu West has identified prospective near-surface mineralisation, while drilling at Mposa has confirmed rare earth mineralisation in ionic clays beneath the heavy mineral sands deposits. The company has also identified niobium mineralisation at Nakombe South, adding to the project’s broader critical minerals potential. Trim Capital considers the combination of heavy mineral sands, rare earth elements and niobium an important part of Chilwa’s investment case, with multiple commodities potentially improving the project’s long-term economics.

Trim Capital’s revised A$1.78 valuation is based on an enterprise value-to-resource methodology, comparing Chilwa with ASX-listed heavy mineral sands and rare earths companies, alongside mining companies operating in Malawi. The increase in Chilwa’s mineral resource estimate was offset by lower valuation multiples across comparable companies, particularly in the heavy mineral sands sector, where oversupply and subdued commodity prices continue to affect producers. The report notes that major producers, including Rio Tinto, Iluka Resources and Kenmare Resources, have faced pressure from weaker market conditions. However, Trim Capital maintains a positive longer-term outlook for critical minerals, supported by efforts to diversify global rare earth supply chains and growing strategic interest from major economies.

With the Nasdaq listing completed and the mineral resource expanded, attention is turning towards the next stages of project development. Trim Capital identifies pre-feasibility studies in 2027 and a targeted decision to mine in 2028 as the principal upcoming milestones. The company continues to benefit from its strategic relationship with Mota-Engil, which holds a substantial shareholding and provides equipment, facilities and technical support through a service agreement. Despite the progress, the report identifies several risks, including exploration uncertainty, regulatory requirements in Malawi and potential shareholder dilution associated with future capital raisings. Trim Capital’s latest assessment highlights Chilwa’s expanding resource base and progress towards development, while acknowledging the funding and execution challenges facing an emerging critical minerals project.

Download the full research report (PDF), or visit www.trimcapital.com.au for further research.