Australia’s political landscape is navigating “uncharted territory” according to Dr. Shaun Ratcliff, principal at Accent Research, as Pauline Hanson’s One Nation witnesses a significant fourfold increase in voter backing since the May 2025 election. This remarkable surge is also deemed “extremely unique” by independent pollster Ben Raue, signifying a profound shift in federal politics. The current trajectory suggests a substantial challenge to the traditional dominance of major parties, with implications extending beyond individual electorates.
The forthcoming Farrer by-election is poised to be a critical test for this evolving dynamic. Latest uComms polling indicates One Nation candidate David Farley is favoured over the Liberal Party’s Raissa Butkowski, a result that could see the Coalition lose the historically held seat for the first time. This local trend aligns with a broader national picture, where a recent The Australian Financial Review/Redbridge Group/Accent Research poll estimated One Nation’s primary vote among the public at 27 per cent, notably surpassing the Liberals’ 22 per cent. Similar gains were observed in the last South Australian state election, where One Nation secured almost 23 per cent of the primary vote and four new seats.
Demographically, One Nation traditionally appeals to retirees, small business owners, and tradies, with a higher propensity among older, rurally located property owners who may not hold university degrees. However, Dr. Ratcliff highlights a broadening appeal, noting the party is “picking up voters across the board” and showing increased favourability with younger demographics, including 15 per cent of Gen Z and 23 per cent of Millennials in the latest poll. While the long-term sustainability of this momentum until the next federal election remains a subject of debate, pollsters suggest One Nation may not have exhausted its potential future voters, with approximately 50 per cent of non-supporters open to considering the party in the future.
