Artificial intelligence developer Anthropic recently retracted initial figures for its highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO), which had indicated a raise of US$69.3 billion at US$70 to US$80 per share. This abrupt reversal, first reported by Reuters, has intensified investor scrutiny over the company’s potential market value. Anthropic, the artificial intelligence developer behind the popular Claude platform, specialises in advanced AI model development, aiming to bolster its leadership position. Morningstar, an influential equities research house, has presented a wide range of valuations, with its most bullish scenario suggesting Anthropic could eventually command a market capitalisation of US$3 trillion.
Morningstar’s US$3 trillion optimistic valuation hinges on Anthropic capturing significant corporate AI spending and achieving over 60 per cent annual revenue growth for five years. Its base case estimates a fair value of US$1.7 trillion, implying 47 per cent annual growth, while the most bearish projection is around US$500 billion, citing AI adoption speed and competition uncertainty. Anthropic recently unveiled new AI models to fortify its market standing: Fable for complex technical tasks like software development, and Mythos for cybersecurity and biomedical research. The developer currently serves over 12,000 customers spending more than US$100,000 annually, with 250 exceeding US$10 million.
Amidst this valuation debate, Anthropic is mirroring SpaceX’s strategy by courting retail investors, providing Australian brokers such as CommSec, Stake, and Sharesies access to its IPO. However, market sentiment remains divided. Former stockbroker Marcus Padley revised his fair-value estimate downwards after Anthropic reported an operating loss and slowed revenue growth. David Allen of Plato Investment Management highlighted 14 potential “red flags,” questioning substantial future spending commitments against variable revenue, its total addressable market claims, and debt credit quality. These varying perspectives underscore the significant uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming IPO.
