Australia’s trade surplus experienced a significant rebound in June, reaching $5.4 billion. This marks a substantial increase from the revised $1.6 billion surplus recorded in May. The surge was primarily fuelled by stronger exports of coal and gold, coupled with a notable decrease in imports.
According to the latest figures, export values saw a rise of 6 per cent during the period. Simultaneously, imports experienced a contraction of 3.1 per cent, influenced by reduced shipments of capital goods and vehicles. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) observed that while the June result exceeded expectations, the broader trend indicates a softening, with the quarterly surplus narrowing to $11.2 billion from $13 billion in March.
CBA suggests that lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices and increased domestic demand are factors placing downward pressure on the trade balance. They anticipate that the current account will remain in deficit through 2025. Regarding global trade dynamics, Australia’s exposure to rising US tariffs remains relatively limited. The average tariff rate applied to Australian exports is only marginally higher than the established baseline of 10 per cent.
However, CBA has highlighted the potential risk of further escalation in trade tensions, especially if the US proceeds with proposed tariffs of 250 per cent on pharmaceuticals. Such a move could have a considerable impact on Australian exporters involved in the pharmaceutical sector.
