The OECD has cut global growth forecasts sharply following President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, prompting an immediate warning from Nigel Green, CEO of global financial advisory deVere Group, that investors must take action to reflect the new economic environment.
In its full economic outlook released Tuesday, the OECD projects global growth of just 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026—its lowest forecast since the 2020 pandemic shock.
Nearly every G20 economy sees a downgrade.
The OECD states: “Weakened economic prospects will be felt around the world, with almost no exception.”
“This downgrade highlights a fundamental shift in conditions,” says Nigel Green.
“Investors have been relying on assumptions that no longer match reality. Growth is slowing, trade costs are rising, and central banks are more constrained than many had hoped. Allocations need to reflect that immediately.”
The OECD singles out the US, where growth is expected to fall from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026.
It attributes much of the slowdown to tariffs announced by Trump in April. The average US effective tariff rate now exceeds 15%, up from 2.5%, making it the highest since the 1940s.
“These tariffs are directly affecting business decisions,” notes the deVere CEO.
“Companies are halting investment, adjusting pricing, and shifting production. These are measurable actions, not projections. We already see it in trade data and corporate guidance.”
The OECD also notes that the inflationary impact of tariffs is significant. The rise in costs is expected to keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates this year, despite weaker growth. Financial markets had priced in easing; those expectations are now being reconsidered.
“Investors who have been waiting for rate cuts are now facing a different backdrop,” says Nigel Green.
“Policy support is limited, but cost pressures remain elevated. That narrows the range of outcomes and calls for far more precise portfolio positioning.”
Beyond the US, the OECD downgrades growth in China, India, France, Japan, South Africa, and the UK.
It reports weaker trade volumes, softer investment flows, and reduced business confidence across advanced and emerging markets.
“This is a broad-based loss of momentum,” says the chief executive of deVere Group.
“The effects of the tariffs are moving through the global system. The shift is visible across regions and sectors, and portfolios must reflect that shift.”
deVere is advising clients to reduce exposure to assets dependent on global trade volumes and low borrowing costs.
The firm is prioritizing allocations to infrastructure, inflation-linked assets, and sectors where revenues are more stable and less sensitive to cross-border disruption.
“We are focusing on resilience and consistency,” says Nigel Green.
“That includes select real asset strategies, stronger regional balance sheets, and businesses with pricing power that is not tied to external demand.”
While the OECD calls for easing trade restrictions to restore investment, it also signals that no near-term resolution is likely. Tariffs now form a core part of US economic strategy, and market participants should not expect those policies to unwind quickly.
“This is not something investors can ignore,” says Nigel Green.
“Unprecedented trade policies are shaping supply chains, global investment flows, and inflation expectations. This is not just a headline risk, it’s already embedded in the numbers.”
He adds: “The global growth model is adjusting. Relying on past patterns or assuming conditions will revert is not a reliable approach.
“Investors who respond now have more room to manoeuvre than those who wait for confirmation in price movements.”
The OECD’s latest forecast points to a slower, more complex environment for capital allocation. For investors, that means reassessing exposures and acting before further repricing occurs.
Nigel Green concludes: “Delaying decisions increases the risk of being caught off-balance. Those who make adjustments now are more likely to protect value and find opportunities others miss.”
deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of offices around the world, more than 80,000 clients, and $14bn under advisement.
