Employment Data Losing Momentum As Full Time Jobs Fade

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Australia’s job creation boomed slowed sharply in 2018, but growth still topped long term averages according to the December Labour Force report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) yesterday.

The ABS said jobs growth was 2.3% in 2018 on a trend basis, or 284,100 new gigs. That was noticeably slower than the 3.3% rate in 2017 when more than 390,000 new jobs were created.

The 2.3% rate was comfortably ahead of the 2% rate of the past two decades, but towards the end of the year, the growth rate dipped under that average. In December it fell to 1.9%, with a fading in full-time jobs the main cause. Part-time jobs growth was 2.7% year on year in December.

AMP Chief Economist, Dr. Shane Oliver says that with Australian consumers continuing ”to face headwinds due to the ongoing housing market correction and a savings rate that is already extremely low, today’s jobs data is unlikely to move the dial either way for the RBA.”

“There is no change to our view that the RBA will cut interest rates this year,” he wrote in a commentary after the data was released.

Trend unemployment rate remained steady in December 2018 at 5.0%, from a revised 5.0% November 2018 figure (originally 5.1%), according to the Bureau. That’s the lowest for more than seven years.

ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said: “The trend unemployment rate decreased 0.5 percentage points through 2018, and is now sitting at its lowest level since May 2011.”

In December 2018, the ABS said trend employment increased by 23,100. Full-time employment was up by 11,800 persons and part-time employment increased by 11,200 persons.

Trend monthly hours worked increased by 0.1% in December 2018 and by 1.5% over the past year.

This was just under the 20-year average year-on-year growth of 1.7%.

The trend underemployment rate increased by less than 0.1 percentage points to 8.4% while the trend underutilisation rate remained steady at 13.4%, according to the ABS.

The Bureau said that trend unemployment rate rose in Western Australia and the Northern Territory, fell in Victoria, and remained steady in all other states and the ACT.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate eased to 5% in December from 5.1% the month before. The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed rose by 21,600 persons.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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