Tag: ANZ – CBA – NAB – WBC

Was the first half of the 2017-18 financial year as good as it gets for Australia’s four major banks?

Weak bank shares caused most of the damage to the Australian stockmarket market in the March quarter and pushed the ASX 200 to a level lower than it was at the end of the March quarters in 2017 and 2016.

The federal government caved in to political pressure and agreed on a royal commission into the industry after the big four banks changed their tune and through their support behind the idea.

Our poor hard done by Australian banks, fresh from the Big Four’s record profits for 2016-17 of more than $31 billion, are about to be again reminded that their home lending spree of the past three years – especially in Sydney and Melbourne, and especially to investors and self-managed super funds, has made them more risky.

So much for all the moaning and groaning from the big four banks this week about the impact of the way the federal government and opposition were taking pot shots at them earlier in the year – the bank levy imposed in the 2017-18 budget, Labor’s calls for a banking royal commission, the toughening of regulations governing bank managements and the way the regulators forced the banks to boost their capital to make them “unquestionably strong’?

Another good day yesterday for the big four banks as investors and analysts realised their gloom and doom has been misplaced.

So much for the rubbish on Tuesday about how the banks would be hit by big capital calls in the new rules from key regulator, APRA.

The big four banks just can’t take a trick when it comes to their scare campaign about the levy revealed in the 2017-18 Federal Budget in May. The banks and the Bankers Association and some in the media tried sovereign risk, threat to stability, threat to shareholders/superannuation funds/small investors, home borrowers, interest rates and and the availability of loans.

It’s going to be a rough day for bank investors after the key regulator, APRA released its briefing paper on its new rules for new capital buffers for all banks – rules that will force the banks large and small to raise billions of dollars in new capital – just as APRA did back in 2015.

Credit rating agency Moody’s has joined rival Standard & Poor’s in downgrading Australia’s banks.

The big four banks, the ANZ, Westpac, the NAB and the Commonwealth Bank told the ASX yesterday (https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/media/media-releases/2017/22-may/) that the gross impact of the federal government’s levy could be around $1.380 billion a year on gross basis for both banks.

The big taxing Turnbull government has already cost bank investors an estimated $14 billion in lost value for the big four banks’ share prices – which is more than twice the $6.2 billion a new tax will collect.

Later today, the heads of our big four banks start fronting up to a Federal parliamentary committee to update us on what they have been doing as model citizens of Australia.

Credit rating group, Moody’s Investors Service has revised its outlook on Australia’s banks to negative, warning that their profit growth could be hit by to weak wage growth, low interest rates, strong lending competition and rising household debt.

The annual report on the performance of Australia’s big four banks from accounting firm, KPMG warns shareholders to accept the weakening profit trend that emerged in 2014-15.

There’s nothing in yesterday’s response to the Murray Inquiry into the Financial System from the Turnbull Government to worry the banks and fund management companies.

Australian banks will face an even tougher time over the next two years or so in boosting earnings after the key regulator, APRA, said it was raising the amount of capital banks will have to hold against housing loans – except those for small business loans secured by residential mortgages.

The main corporate regulator ASIC reckons banks can’t be trusted to set key benchmark interest rates and need closer supervision.

Banks and their capital needs occupied the headline and reports on the Murray Committee’s investigation into the financial system, but there was a lot more in the report than that.

As bank profits come under pressure in the next year, don’t expect them to be able to resort to an old trick and cost cut their way back to normal profitability.

Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens has made it clear he strongly supports moves to force banks to build up capital buffers faster than they want to help protect them (and the financial system) against damaging future shocks and crises, such as the GFC back in 2008.

The country’s banking regulators have responded to the home price (and lending) boom of the last year or so by tightening criteria for borrowers and lenders, and forcing lenders to be tougher in assessing their customers.

The updates are in from the big four banks, and the loser is…….the National Australia Bank (NAB) whose interim profit and some details of the result were the weakest of the quartet.

More clarity on the probable new rules for our big banks, which were reported yesterday.