Nine Common Mistakes Investors Make
In this week’s Insights column, AMP’s Shane Oliver argues that many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong.
Read MoreIn this week’s Insights column, AMP’s Shane Oliver argues that many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong.
Read MoreAMP Capital’s Dr Shane Oliver breaks down markets across the spectrum and around the globe in his weekly Insights column.
Read MoreAMP Capital’s Dr Shane Oliver breaks down markets across the spectrum and around the globe in his weekly Insights column.
Read More2020 turned out far better for diversified investors than had been feared when the pandemic hit, with average balanced growth superannuation funds looking like they have returned around 3%. This followed around 15% last year. But can returns hold up?
Read MorePlenty of news and developing stories to start the new year. Here’s the key ones to keep an eye out for.
Read MoreThe key is that the Government has successfully protected the economy, and this has enabled it to rebound faster than if budget support had not been provided.
Read MoreEven in good times successful investing can be stressful. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things – call them rules – in mind.
Read MoreProviding more stimulus & holding off on budget repair are the right thing to do. But it will be a long hard slog to get the deficit back down and stabilise public debt.
Read MoreThe US election has significant potential to add to volatility in investment markets. A Trump victory will mean more of the same and would likely initially be more positive for US than global and Australian shares. By contrast a Biden victory may add to short-term volatility but this is likely to be short-lived as there is no reason to expect a weaker economy and hence share market under a Biden presidency and he is likely to take a less disruptive approach to trade and foreign policy.
Read MoreThe blow out in public debt is a concern and we may have to get used to a long period of relatively high public debt in Australia and in other developed countries. But this won’t necessarily cause a major problem.
Read MoreIn recently presenting a market outlook webinar we received lots of questions about the outlook but were unable to answer them all given time limitations. Here we try and cover the main questions investors have in a simple Q&A format.
Read MoreShares remain vulnerable to short-term setbacks given a number of global uncertainties, but the AMP’s Dr. Shane Oliver believes the positives should keep any pullback to being a correction and on a 6 to 12-month view shares should see reasonable returns.
Read MoreThe coronavirus hit to the economy is driving yet another cyclical downturn in property prices. But it could have a more lasting effect in improving affordability via a long tail of unemployment, lower for longer levels of immigration and a shift to working from home.
Read MoreVictoria’s tightening lockdown could knock at least $12bn off the Victorian and national economy and delay the return to positive Australian GDP growth to the December quarter. The further hit to the economy and likely additional upwards pressure on unemployment is increasing pressure for more policy stimulus.
Read MoreThe price of gold has now broken out to a record high and the Australian dollar has risen 30% from its coronavirus panic low in March and broken above $US0.70. What’s driving this and what does it mean for investors? This note looks at the main issues.
Read MoreThe budget and associated debt blowout is unlikely to cause a major problem as public debt is relatively low, borrowing costs are very low, the Government is borrowing in $A’s & it’s not dependent on foreign capital. Letting the deficit rise is the right thing to do writes Dr. Shane Oliver.
Read MoreShane Oliver looks at the key issues around fiscal support and the budget in Australia ahead of the Treasurer’s Economic Statement which is expected to provide new economic forecasts, an estimate of the budget cost of support measures so far and outline plans for future support measures.
Read MoreThe past financial year was poor for investors as coronavirus knocked economies into what is likely to be their biggest hit since the 1930s. Shares were hit hard, but the blow was softened by a strong rebound in the June quarter. Shane Oliver reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the outlook.
Read MoreThe run up to the US election on 3rd November has the potential to see increased share market volatility if it looks increasingly likely Biden will win and if Trump ramps up tensions with China (and maybe Europe) in response. However, this is likely to be short lived as there is no reason to expect a weaker economy and hence share market under a Biden presidency.
Read MoreA serious second wave of coronavirus cases in major developed countries is the biggest risk facing equity markets, and one investors will need to watch closely.
Read MoreShares are vulnerable to a short-term consolidation or pullback. But if we are right, and April was the low in economic conditions, then shares are likely to be higher on a 6 to 12-month horizon.
Read MoreShane Oliver takes a look at the medium to longer-term implications from the coronavirus shock of relevance to investors. Some of these will constrain economic growth but the faster embrace of technology is positive for growth.
Read MoreThis note looks at our own projections for the budget deficit, the impact on Australia’s net public debt and whether it’s affordable.
Read MoreThree things suggest Australia looks likely to come through this period of global misery relatively well compared to many other countries.
Read MoreAs we’ve seen recently growth assets like shares have periods of bad short-term performance versus bonds & cash. But they provide superior long-term returns which is essential to grow retirement savings. It makes sense for superannuation to have a high exposure to them.
Read MoreThe blanket coverage of coronavirus and its impact on the economy can lead to a lot of confusion right now. Some reports are hopeful of anti-viral drugs, others say a vaccine is at least a year away. There is talk of curve flattening but still rising cases and deaths. There is news of an easing in lockdowns but also worries about “second waves”. All this against a backdrop of collapsing economic data and surging unemployment.
Read MoreThis note looks at what QE is and how it entails printing money, why it’s being used and what the risks are.
Read MoreShane Oliver provides some insight as to what investors should look for in terms of when we can expect a bottom or be at least somewhat confident that the bottom has been reached.
Read MoreAlong with the horrible human consequences, the coronavirus pandemic is having a huge impact on the way we live and as a result investment markets. Shane Oliver provides a simple Q&A for most of the main issues from an economic & investment perspective. To the extent simple answers are possible in this environment!
Read MoreThe bottom line is that while we may see the biggest hit to global and Australian GDP since the 1930s thanks to the shutdowns, there are big differences compared to the Depression suggesting that a long drawn out global downturn is not inevitable.
Read MoreThe coronavirus pandemic & associated shutdowns to economic activity now poses a significant threat to the outlook for property prices. The question is how big the threat is?
Read MoreWhile we haven’t seen a pandemic driven bear market before the basic principles of investing have not changed. Shane Oliver revisits five charts particularly useful in times of stress.
Read MoreGiven the extreme uncertainty in all of this Shane Oliver looks at various scenarios in relation to global and Australian economic growth and what signposts to look at in relation to how it may unfold.
Read MoreSharp market falls with headlines screaming that billions of dollars have been wiped off the share market are stressful for investors. The current situation is doubly stressful because of fears for our own and others’ health – particularly for the elderly. However, several things are worth bearing in mind.
Read MoreThe hit to economic activity is deepening & the risks around Covid-19 becoming a pandemic have risen leaving shares vulnerable to more near term falls. The key for most investors though is to recognise that periodic share market falls are inevitable & hard to time & so it’s best to take a long-term approach to investing.
Read MoreWith inflation low, and as long as recession is not imminent, it makes sense that traditional valuations like PEs are higher than their long-term average. Similarly, it makes sense that property yields are lower than normal, but the fall in Australian housing yields has been extreme relative to commercial property & shares.
Read MoreOur natural inclination to zoom in on negative news combined with a massive ramp-up in the availability of information is arguably making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery, more short-term.
Read MoreThe China coronavirus outbreak has led to concerns of a global pandemic triggering an economic downturn. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained allowing share markets and bond yields to rebound.
Read MoreOur high-level investment view for this year is that a combination of improving global growth-boosting profits and still easy monetary conditions will help drive reasonable investment returns, albeit more modest than the very strong gains of 2019. This note revisits five charts we see as critical to the outlook.
Read MoreDespite ongoing bouts of volatility, 2020 is likely to provide solid returns, albeit slower than seen in 2019. Watch US trade wars, the US election, the US/Iran conflict, global business conditions indicators, and monetary versus fiscal stimulus in Australia.
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