Seven Reasons for Optimism on Australian Growth
In his regular Insights column, AMP Capital Chief Economist Dr Shane Oliver breaks down this week’s GDP report and shares his thoughts on the outlook for Australian growth.
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Should We Be Worried about Higher Inflation?
In his weekly Insights column, Dr Shane Oliver from AMP Capital gives an in-depth analysis on inflation, what is driving the recent jump, and what the risks are for investment markets.
Read MoreSpending the Growth Windfall to Further Grow the Economy Towards Full Employment
In his weekly Insights column, Dr Shane Oliver from AMP Capital breaks down this week’s Budget, the key measures it contains, and their implications for Australian assets.
Read MoreCurrencies / Economics / Fixed Interest / Funds / Interest Rates / Markets / Shane Oliver / Strategy
The Return of Geopolitical Risk? What to Watch over the Remainder of 2021
In his weekly Insights column, Dr Shane Oliver from AMP Capital considers the re-emergence of geopolitical risk and what to look for over the rest of the year.
Read MoreThree Reasons Why the Long-Term Bull Market in Australian House Prices May Be Getting Close to the End
In his weekly Insights column, AMP Capital’s Dr Shane Oliver goes deep into the resurgent Australian property market and why he believes the good times may soon be at an end.
Read MoreThe Importance of Starting Point Valuations for Investment Returns
In his weekly Insights column, AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver explains why starting point valuations are a key driver of potential medium-term investment returns and where they sit at present.
Read MoreRBA on Hold and Likely to Remain Easy for a Long While Yet
In this week’s Insights column, AMP Capital Chief Economist Dr. Shane Oliver picks apart what the RBA’s monetary stance means for investors and the broader Australian economy.
Read MoreMarket Outlook Q&A: Global recovery and other issues
In this week’s Insights column, AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver covers in a simple Q&A format the main questions investors commonly have regarding the investment outlook.
Read MoreWhere Are We in the Investment Cycle?
Shares have had a very strong rebound since March last year so where are we in the investment cycle? In his weekly Insights article, AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver gives his thoughts on the subject.
Read MoreBitcoin – It’s Not a Currency, it’s Not a Capital Asset… So What Is it?
In this week’s Insights column, AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver takes us on an in-depth tour of the wild and woolly world of Bitcoin.
Read MoreThe Bond Crash of 2021? Seven Things for Investors to Consider
AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver’s weekly Insights column takes us on a most timely deep dive into the current state of the global bond market
Read MoreSeven Things to Bear in Mind about the Australian Property Market
Australian house prices are on the upswing again. In this week’s Insight’s column, AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver presents seven things to keep in mind when dealing in this trickiest of areas.
Read MoreNine Common Mistakes Investors Make
In this week’s Insights column, AMP’s Shane Oliver argues that many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong.
Read MoreSeven Key Charts for Investors to Watch
AMP Capital’s Dr Shane Oliver breaks down markets across the spectrum and around the globe in his weekly Insights column.
Read MoreCommodities / Currencies / Economics / Fixed Interest / Funds / Interest Rates / Markets / Shane Oliver
US Political Protests, Inflation and Rising Bond Yields
AMP Capital’s Dr Shane Oliver breaks down markets across the spectrum and around the globe in his weekly Insights column.
Read More2021 – A List of Lists Regarding the Macro Investment Outlook
2020 turned out far better for diversified investors than had been feared when the pandemic hit, with average balanced growth superannuation funds looking like they have returned around 3%. This followed around 15% last year. But can returns hold up?
Read MoreMarket Update 8 January 2021
Plenty of news and developing stories to start the new year. Here’s the key ones to keep an eye out for.
Read MoreMid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook – peak deficit has likely been seen
The key is that the Government has successfully protected the economy, and this has enabled it to rebound faster than if budget support had not been provided.
Read MoreNine Keys To Successful Investing – And Why They Are More Important Than Ever In The Face Of The Coronavirus Shock
Even in good times successful investing can be stressful. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things – call them rules – in mind.
Read MoreThe 2020-21 Australian Budget – Spend, Spend, Spend As The Focus Remains On Recovery & Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
Providing more stimulus & holding off on budget repair are the right thing to do. But it will be a long hard slog to get the deficit back down and stabilise public debt.
Read MoreBiden Vs Trump – The US Presidential Election Is Looming As The Next Big Event For Investors
The US election has significant potential to add to volatility in investment markets. A Trump victory will mean more of the same and would likely initially be more positive for US than global and Australian shares. By contrast a Biden victory may add to short-term volatility but this is likely to be short-lived as there is no reason to expect a weaker economy and hence share market under a Biden presidency and he is likely to take a less disruptive approach to trade and foreign policy.
Read MoreAustralia’s “Eye Popping” Budget Deficit And Public Debt Blow Out – Can It Be Paid Off? Does It Matter?
The blow out in public debt is a concern and we may have to get used to a long period of relatively high public debt in Australia and in other developed countries. But this won’t necessarily cause a major problem.
Read MoreMarket Outlook Q&A – Economic Disconnect, Growth Vs Value, Vaccines, Property, Gold, Inflation & Other Issues
In recently presenting a market outlook webinar we received lots of questions about the outlook but were unable to answer them all given time limitations. Here we try and cover the main questions investors have in a simple Q&A format.
Read MoreSeven Reasons Why The Trend In Shares Will Likely Remain Up, Albeit With Bumps Along The Way
Shares remain vulnerable to short-term setbacks given a number of global uncertainties, but the AMP’s Dr. Shane Oliver believes the positives should keep any pullback to being a correction and on a 6 to 12-month view shares should see reasonable returns.
Read MoreThree Reasons Why The Coronavirus Crisis Might Fix Australia’s Housing Affordability Crisis
The coronavirus hit to the economy is driving yet another cyclical downturn in property prices. But it could have a more lasting effect in improving affordability via a long tail of unemployment, lower for longer levels of immigration and a shift to working from home.
Read MoreRBA Holds – But More Stimulus Likely As Victorian Lockdown To Knock At Least $12bn From GDP
Victoria’s tightening lockdown could knock at least $12bn off the Victorian and national economy and delay the return to positive Australian GDP growth to the December quarter. The further hit to the economy and likely additional upwards pressure on unemployment is increasing pressure for more policy stimulus.
Read MoreUS Dollar Breaking Down, Gold & The $A Breaking Up – What Does It Mean For Investors?
The price of gold has now broken out to a record high and the Australian dollar has risen 30% from its coronavirus panic low in March and broken above $US0.70. What’s driving this and what does it mean for investors? This note looks at the main issues.
Read MoreAustralian Economic And Fiscal Update – Record Budget Deficits, But More To Come
The budget and associated debt blowout is unlikely to cause a major problem as public debt is relatively low, borrowing costs are very low, the Government is borrowing in $A’s & it’s not dependent on foreign capital. Letting the deficit rise is the right thing to do writes Dr. Shane Oliver.
Read MoreThe Fiscal Cliff Is More Likely To Be A Fiscal Slope
Shane Oliver looks at the key issues around fiscal support and the budget in Australia ahead of the Treasurer’s Economic Statement which is expected to provide new economic forecasts, an estimate of the budget cost of support measures so far and outline plans for future support measures.
Read More2019-20 Saw Poor Returns – But It Could Have Been Much Worse
The past financial year was poor for investors as coronavirus knocked economies into what is likely to be their biggest hit since the 1930s. Shares were hit hard, but the blow was softened by a strong rebound in the June quarter. Shane Oliver reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the outlook.
Read MoreThe US Presidential Election – Implications For Investors
The run up to the US election on 3rd November has the potential to see increased share market volatility if it looks increasingly likely Biden will win and if Trump ramps up tensions with China (and maybe Europe) in response. However, this is likely to be short lived as there is no reason to expect a weaker economy and hence share market under a Biden presidency.
Read MoreHow Worried Should Investors Be About A ‘Second Wave’ Of Coronavirus Cases?
A serious second wave of coronavirus cases in major developed countries is the biggest risk facing equity markets, and one investors will need to watch closely.
Read MoreShares Climb A “Wall Of Worry” – But Is It Sustainable?
Shares are vulnerable to a short-term consolidation or pullback. But if we are right, and April was the low in economic conditions, then shares are likely to be higher on a 6 to 12-month horizon.
Read More10 Medium To Longer-Term Implications From The Coronavirus Shock
Shane Oliver takes a look at the medium to longer-term implications from the coronavirus shock of relevance to investors. Some of these will constrain economic growth but the faster embrace of technology is positive for growth.
Read MoreThe Coming Surge In Australia’s Budget Deficit & Public Debt – Can We Afford It?
This note looks at our own projections for the budget deficit, the impact on Australia’s net public debt and whether it’s affordable.
Read MoreWhy Australia May Come Through This Period Of Global Misery Better Than Most
Three things suggest Australia looks likely to come through this period of global misery relatively well compared to many other countries.
Read MoreWhy Super & Growth Assets Like Shares Have To Be Seen As Long-Term Investments
As we’ve seen recently growth assets like shares have periods of bad short-term performance versus bonds & cash. But they provide superior long-term returns which is essential to grow retirement savings. It makes sense for superannuation to have a high exposure to them.
Read MoreLight At The End Of The Coronavirus Tunnel – What Does It Mean For Investors?
The blanket coverage of coronavirus and its impact on the economy can lead to a lot of confusion right now. Some reports are hopeful of anti-viral drugs, others say a vaccine is at least a year away. There is talk of curve flattening but still rising cases and deaths. There is news of an easing in lockdowns but also worries about “second waves”. All this against a backdrop of collapsing economic data and surging unemployment.
Read MoreMagic Money Tree – QE & Money Printing & Their Part In The Economic Rescue
This note looks at what QE is and how it entails printing money, why it’s being used and what the risks are.
Read MoreWhat Signposts Can We Watch To Be Confident Shares Have Bottomed?
Shane Oliver provides some insight as to what investors should look for in terms of when we can expect a bottom or be at least somewhat confident that the bottom has been reached.
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