Australian Growth Will Be Constrained But Here’s Nine Reasons Why Recession Is Unlikely

Several positives suggest recession is unlikely: the current account deficit has collapsed; the $A helps stabilise the economy; the drag from falling mining investment is over; there is scope for extra fiscal stimulus; infrastructure spending is booming; there has been no sign of panic property selling; economic policy remains sensible; population growth remains strong; and the RBA can still do more.

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The Nine Most Important Things I Have Learnt About Investing Over The Past 35 Years

My nine most important lessons from investing over the past 35 years are that: there is always a cycle; the crowd gets it wrong at extremes; what you pay for an investment matters a lot; getting markets right is not as easy as you think; investment markets don’t learn; compound interest applied to investments is like magic; it pays to be optimistic; keep it simple; and you need to know yourself to succeed at investing.

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Seven lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for investors

The key lessons for investors from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) are that: there is always a cycle; while each cycle is different, markets are pushed to extremes of valuation and sentiment; high returns come with higher risk; be sceptical of financial engineering or hard-to-understand products; avoid too much gearing or gearing of the wrong sort; the importance of proper diversification; and the importance of asset allocation.

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The US Economy – Does The Flattening Yield Curve Indicate Recession Is Imminent?

Ever since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) there has been an obsession with looking for the next recession. In this regard, over the last year or so there has been increasing concern that a flattening yield curve in the US – ie the gap between long-term bond yields and short-term borrowing rates has been declining – is signalling a downturn and, if it goes negative, a recession in the US.

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