One early theme that has emerged is the deterioration in future conditions for consumers as expressed by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA), AGL Energy (ASX:AGL) and Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) results. Having mentioned it yesterday on the ABC’s NSW Statewide Drive program with Fiona Wyllie, it makes sense to discuss it here.

In this week’s video insight Roger discusses how ultra-low interest rates for an extended period – through quantitative easing – has seen unprecedented debt accumulate globally that is not being invested in growth.

As we are all well aware, central banks have been, through quantitative easing, suppressing interest rates since the GFC. Consequently, monetary policy has fueled unprecedented flows of institutional and private capital into real estate, private equity and stocks.

If you’re looking for a dose of optimism, then head to the recent interview on CNBC with billionaire hedge fund pioneer, Julian Robertson. Robertson says he’s still bullish on this market, and he’s particularly keen on leading tech stocks like Facebook, Google and Microsoft.

Cochlear (ASX:COH) is one of Australia’s shining examples of technical adroitness and export attractiveness, an example to entrepreneurs of what can be achieved in Australia despite punitive wages and regulation.

The relentless pace of technological disruption shows no signs of abating.  The latest major disruptor is 3D printing, which looks set to revolutionise the way we make almost everything – from cars to houses, and even human body parts.

If you’re an investor looking for growth, you might want to check out companies involved in gaming. You see, gaming is big, and getting bigger. And it’s helping to propel some of the largest businesses on the planet.

There can be virtually no doubt that we are in a golden age of technological advances that promise to change the world. From 3D printers churning out both metal objects and human organs, to digital advertising targeting customers based on their moods, and from electric vehicles promising to clean up the atmosphere to the self-described “sharing” economy putting power back in the hands of ‘the people’ (but not holiday-pay or superannuation in the hands of its workers), the technology revolution we are witnessing, and its pace, marks a point in history many of our parents and grandparents could not have imagined.

Predicting market direction is very hard to do. In this week’s video insight, Roger presents some of the facts via a series of charts to let you draw your own conclusions as to where markets are headed in the next 12-18 months.

It’s not often I’m motivated to republish, in its entirety, a speech from the head of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.

Alas, there’s no magic signal to tell us when this market could savagely correct. The latest note of caution comes from famed US investor, Jeremy Grantham. He believes we are seeing a ‘melt-up’ in the stock market – the final stages of a great bubble near to bursting.

Some of our high-flying concept companies are about to feel the blowtorch of increased competition. How they respond could be provide an insight into whether they are prepared for the new competitive landscape – or if they can do anything about it.

In this week’s video insight Chris discusses the most valuable companies in the world. Do you know which company is going to the be the first to be worth one trillion dollars?

The US consumer is feeling good! Confidence is up, wages are rising and inflation is benign.

In this week’s video insight Roger discusses Bill Shorten’s attack on franked dividends. He’s simply putting millennials against baby boomers. Is Voting for Labor a vote against your parents and grandparents? .

In the last few days Opposition Labor Leader Bill Shorten has proposed a radical transformation of dividend imputation. Putting aside his mistaken belief that his voters are “Aussie Battlers”- when in fact they are hard-working small business owners and contractors, many of whom receive franked dividends from their business endeavors – it’s worth looking at what all the fuss is about…

Do you know which country does the most online shopping? How does the US compare? Do you even know what proportion of shopping is done online in Australia? In today’s memo I want to take the pulse of e-commerce across the globe given its becoming such a wonderful opportunity for some businesses, and such a disturbing threat for other businesses.

We’re keen to keep an eye on retail sales. You might recall we have previously explained that on the positive side, unemployment if very low, is very good for retail conditions.  On the negative side wages growth has been stubbornly flat and retailers have been unable to pass on any price rises.

WPP is the world’s largest communications services group.  As such, it’s a good indicator of how digital disruption is affecting advertising budgets.  So its 2017 results, and market outlook, make interesting reading.

In this week’s video insight Daniel discusses how we react to company earnings, particularly where there is a material price move. Providing some insight into what we look for and how we make investment decisions based on what companies report.

All of a sudden, the discounted cash flow (DCF) method is in the news. If you’re not a financial analyst, DCF probably doesn’t mean much to you. But recent comments by Australia’s Grattan Institute prompted me to explain how we go about valuing companies at Montgomery.

Over the weekend Berkshire Hathaway, the company that has been under Warren Buffett’s stewardship for more than half a century, released its annual report and letter to shareholders. While the annual report contains the financial results of the all Berkshire’s businesses for the preceding year, it is Mr Buffett’s letter to his “partners” that the financial and media community hang out for. It’s usually full of insight and wit juxtaposed with the dryness of the regulatory filing.

If our friends at Deutsche Bank are right in forecasting the US unemployment rate to decline from the current 17 year low of 4.1 per cent to 3.2 per cent by-late 2019, the US Federal Reserve are going to have a delicate balancing act as they lift the cash rate in trying to keep inflationary expectations under control. When I say a delicate balancing act, it is interesting to note the US Federal Reserve has historically, during these periods of rising inflation, tightened the cash rate to a real 1.25 per cent.

Digital disruption is hitting the retail sector harder than most. But not all retailers have been affected to the same extent. Recent research by Citi sheds light on the winners and losers this latest reporting season.

Legendary investor, Jim Rogers, is a famed perma-bear. But this month Rogers stepped it up. He predicted that the next bear market will be “the worst in our lifetime”, fueled by a world that is laden with debt, and that it will occur within the next two years.

It is no secret that the US retail sector is in the midst of a seismic structural shift. 2017 was a particularly tough year for retailers, with dozens of bankruptcies, thousands of store closures and consumers that were increasingly more interested in buying experiences rather than things.

Right now, there’s a debate raging about the need to cut corporate tax rates in Australia. As usual, some of the arguments are overly simplified, if not misleading. The questions are: would a tax cut deliver the benefits spruiked by the government, and who would benefit the most? Let’s take a look.

In the first two trading days of February US interest rates accelerated their advance of the previous few months and the US equity market tumbled (I wrote about our approach to handling the market movements here.) Commentators were quick to point to a causal relationship and many investors worried that any hint of higher rates would continue to up-end stock prices.

Most of us know of the volatility index, otherwise known as the VIX.  But the inverse index – the XIV – was little known until a recent story surfaced about a trader who lost $4 million when the XIV lost 96 per cent of its value in one day.  It was a sobering reminder that this bull market can’t roll on forever.

Amazon in recent times has amassed a reputation for being disruptive to traditional firms and industries, and rightly so. The company has up-ended the traditional brick-and-mortar retail model, and the company’s ambitions do not end there.

With household costs going up, and the wage index comping down, it’s little wonder Australians are finding it harder to save. If this trend continues, it spells leaner times for Australian businesses exposed to consumer spending.

Recent experience excepted, corrections are typically more frequent and regular than many would prefer, so investing should not occur without acceptance of this. That said, it’s important to prepare, first by making the right investments, and secondly by adopting the right temperament.

As a new year begins, market predictions are coming in thick and fast. Significantly, in recent days, the views of some of the giants in the industry are echoing those we hold and have shared with our readers.  If we are right, then investors will need to be rather more nimble than usual this year.

The beginning of the school year always coincides with media reports about how to help your kids succeed. The reports put increasing pressure on parents, who are now expected to ensure their kids excel in every pursuit they tackle. It’s all part of helping them on their life’s journey, right? Well, maybe not.

As value investors, we are constantly asking ourselves “why” – why is a company undervalued, why is another overvalued, why is our thesis different to the market’s and why is it more likely to be right, et cetera. The better we can answer these why’s, the better we are likely to perform against the average market participant. However, not all developments need or should have an explanation. One example in this category is “why did the market fall 5 per cent on Monday?”.

Over the last six months, the US Dow Jones Industrial Average has soared 20 per cent to 26,500. But over the past week it has shed over 2,000 points or 8 per cent. The reason: a surge in yields on US Ten Year Government Treasury Bonds, which hit a four-year high of 2.86 per cent. With interest rates climbing, it’s time for investors to tread more warily.

In this week’s video insight George discusses the importance of thinking about the impacts of the news on a stock’s valuation and only acting when it changes your thesis and the attractiveness of the investment.

Recently we have been fascinated by the inexorable rise in the share prices of tech companies. You might recall we’ve written about, and looked with suspicion at, the combined market value of US$140 billion for Tesla, Uber and Twitter, despite a combined profit of zero.