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ASX set to fall 0.3% as bond yields climb

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Australian shares face a weaker open as US Treasury yields and oil prices remain elevated

Wall Street finished mixed on Thursday as Treasury yields climbed to multi-decade highs, keeping pressure on equities despite reports of possible progress in US-Iran negotiations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 161.61 points, or 0.31%, to 51,349.98, its third consecutive decline. The S&P 500 slipped 0.02% to 7,704.13, while the Nasdaq Composite edged 0.01% higher to 26,939.37.

Stocks recovered from their session lows after reports that US and Iranian negotiators were considering a phased deal that could see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its economic blockade.

Bond yields remained elevated, with the US 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.223%, its highest since June 2007, while the 30-year yield touched 5.501%, a level not seen since 2004. Markets are now pricing around a 71% chance of another Federal Reserve rate increase in October.

Oil prices also rose amid conflicting headlines around the Iran war. Brent gained more than 3% to close above US$106 a barrel, while WTI climbed 2.7% to US$94.61.

Australian Market Outlook

Australian shares are set to open lower, with S&P/ASX 200 futures down 29 points, or 0.3%, to 8,709. Higher global bond yields remain a key headwind, with the US 10-year yield holding above 5.2% as resilient economic growth and inflation concerns reinforce expectations for further Fed tightening. Oil prices and developments in the Iran war will also remain in focus, particularly signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations and further attacks on Saudi targets.

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