Morgan Stanley has identified several Australian sharemarket sectors as significantly exposed to the growing influence of the One Nation party. In an extensive research note, the global financial services firm indicated the party’s rising presence has begun to shape the narratives of both major political parties, Labor and the Coalition, on critical policy issues. While the equity market has been circumspect about calibrating meaningful policy impact, Morgan Stanley strategists, led by Chris Nicol, noted that any significant voting bloc in the Senate could materially alter policy paths. Recent polling showed One Nation securing a 28 per cent primary vote, closely trailing Labor’s 29 per cent, highlighting its political traction.
At the core of One Nation’s platform is a plan to reduce temporary migration by over 750,000 people within three years, alongside capping net overseas migration at approximately 130,000 annually. According to Mr. Nicol, such drastic migration cuts would act as a significant headwind to economic growth, diminish the available workforce, and likely escalate wage pressures. The broker’s report highlights that lower population growth poses a challenge for housing, consumer-facing industries, and various GDP-linked business models. Labour-intensive sectors could face renewed pressure on wages, with many long-term growth assumptions for domestic-facing businesses not currently factoring in such a population scenario.
One Nation’s policy agenda also includes exiting the Paris Agreement, repealing emissions reduction regulations, and redirecting funding from renewable generation towards coal, gas, and nuclear power. While halting support for renewable energy might offer short-term cost reductions, Morgan Stanley cautioned it would derail long-term infrastructure investment and delay climate goals. For housing, the party proposes a five-year GST moratorium on new building materials, lighter regulation, and government-backed 30-year fixed mortgages at 5 per cent. While real estate developers and property-exposed industrial stocks could benefit, banks may see profits decline from increased competition, with Morgan Stanley describing the proposed 30-year mortgage market as “highly problematic.”
