Bitcoin values have sunk to their lowest levels since Donald Trump’s presidency, sparking concerns among investors. The world’s most popular cryptocurrency has experienced a significant downturn, losing 40 per cent of its value since reaching an all-time high of over $US126,000 in October. This decline has impacted Bitcoin’s momentum, narrative, and its perceived role as a reliable hedge.
Prediction markets indicate a pessimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s future. Polymarket, a decentralised prediction platform, suggests an 82 per cent chance that Bitcoin will fall to $US65,000 this year, approximately 13 per cent lower than its current level. Some investors are even anticipating a steeper decline, with the odds of Bitcoin dropping below $US55,000 climbing to around 60 per cent.
Short-dated contracts reflect an even more bearish sentiment. One February market on Polymarket now assigns a 72 per cent chance that Bitcoin will trade below $US70,000 by March 1, a significant increase from the start of the month. Approximately $US1.7 million in bets support this outcome, highlighting real-time trader pessimism amid ETF outflows and doubts across the cryptocurrency sector.
“It basically reflects the bearish sentiment in markets right now,” said Marex’s Ilan Solot, citing Bitcoin’s recent inability to act as a safe haven, among other factors. Polymarket is a decentralised prediction platform. This platform allows users to place bets on the outcomes of future events, using cryptocurrency.
