Economists at JPMorgan and Jarden are now forecasting a rate hike when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets next week, joining a growing consensus among market analysts. JPMorgan’s chief economist, Ben Jarman, stated that despite previous reservations regarding Australia’s inflation trajectory, the bank now anticipates a 25-basis point increase at the meeting.
Jarman noted the decision is finely balanced given the underlying data. Jarden has also adjusted its 2026 economic forecast to incorporate a 25-basis point hike in February. The adjustment is attributed to domestic accommodation inflation, rising new dwelling prices, and a robust labour market.
RBC Capital Markets also projects two 25-basis point increases in February and May, contingent on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining unchanged. “We’re not wedded to timing, but believe the path of least regret is to act sooner rather than later,” the group stated.
JPMorgan provides various investment banking and financial services. Jarden offers wealth management and investment banking services.
