ANZ has warned that commodity markets are bracing for a turbulent 2026, citing geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and fluctuating demand as key factors. Analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari highlighted specific vulnerabilities across different sectors, noting that the energy sector is particularly exposed to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and persistent tensions in the Middle East. Potential shifts in Russian crude supply, along with the uncertain situations in Iran and Venezuela, add further complexity to the oil market. ANZ is one of Australia’s largest banks, providing a range of financial services to retail, commercial, and institutional customers. The bank operates across Australia, New Zealand, and the Asia Pacific region.
According to the report, China’s evolving economy will significantly influence global dynamics. The shift from traditional sectors like real estate to technology-driven industries, coupled with China’s strategic resource stockpiling, will reshape commodity demand. In the precious metals sector, a strong start to the year is underpinned by continuing political and economic uncertainty. Despite a substantial 90 per cent surge in 2025, analysts believe the underlying factors driving this growth persist, suggesting further upside potential this year. However, they anticipate a retracement by year-end as geopolitical and trade conditions stabilise.
The iron ore market faces headwinds over the next year, primarily due to a structural decline in Chinese demand. Analysts believe that stimulus measures from Chinese authorities are unlikely to reverse this downward trend. Furthermore, the impending output from the Simandou mine will add to supply pressures. However, other supply-side constraints and shifts in demand epicentres are expected to mitigate the overall impact on prices, preventing a drastic collapse.
