Sandfire Resources is facing near-term delivery risks due to first-half execution issues that have pushed production into the second half, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker. However, the company’s fiscal year 2026 guidance remains unchanged. Sandfire Resources is an Australian mining and exploration company. It focuses on copper and other base metals production.
Copper output for the second quarter reached 24,100 kilotonnes, approximately 10 per cent below RBC and consensus forecasts. This shortfall was attributed to SAG mill issues at Motheo and limited access to higher-grade ore at T3/A4. While the mill has been repaired, operational constraints and rainfall could keep production at the lower end of guidance. Zinc production at MATSA, totaling 26,800 tonnes, exceeded forecasts by 8–10 per cent, and silver production was broadly in line at 1.2 million ounces. Lead production was lower than expected but remains a minor contributor to EBITDA.
Peker noted that the first half to second half production split has shifted from 48:52 to 46:54, reflecting the delayed Motheo output. The group’s net cash position stands at $US13 million, below RBC’s estimate of $63 million but above consensus expectations.
Despite the softer first half, Peker said the situation is “manageable,” supported by MATSA’s performance and the company’s improving balance sheet. Free cash flow is expected to continue if Motheo achieves its projected recovery from the third quarter onwards. Sandfire Resources shares had increased by 0.5 per cent to $18.75 by Monday afternoon.
