UBS has revised its copper price forecasts upward, anticipating continued price increases into next year. The bank cites tightening supply due to persistent mine disruptions and robust long-term demand stemming from electrification and clean-energy investments as key factors driving the revised projections. In its updated forecasts, UBS raised its March 2026 price target by $750 per metric tonne to $11,500. Targets for June and September 2026 were increased by $1,000 a tonne, reaching $12,000 and $12,500, respectively. A new target for December 2026 was introduced at $13,000 per tonne.
UBS also increased its market deficit forecasts to 230,000 tonnes in 2025, a significant rise from the previous estimate of 53,000 tonnes. The deficit forecast for 2026 was also adjusted upwards to 407,000 tonnes, compared to the prior forecast of 87,000 tonnes. The bank attributes these changes to falling inventories and persistent supply risks, which are expected to maintain tight market conditions. Mine disruptions this year, including production issues at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, slower output recovery in Chile, and recurring protests in Peru, highlight structural supply constraints likely to persist into 2026.
UBS trimmed its refined copper production growth estimates to 1.2% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026, citing declining ore grades and ongoing operational challenges. Simultaneously, it anticipates global copper demand to grow by 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026. This demand will be fueled by the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, investments in renewable energy, power-grid infrastructure development, and the expansion of data centres. The most-active copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed daytime trade up 0.09% at 86,080 yuan ($12,112.68) per metric tonne.
