It’s retailers galore as the US first quarter reporting season slows this week.
In fact in something of a rarity most of the major retail chains report in the single week – Walmart (the biggest), Target (the second largest), DIY giants, Home Depot and Lowe’s Cos., discounters TJX and Ross Stores, department store giants, Macy’s and Kohl’s, plus Ralph Lauren, VF Corp, L Brands, Deckers and Footlocker.
Outside retail farm machinery and construction machinery maker, Deer and Co reports as does the maker of Spam, Hormel Foods (No Monty Python jokes please). Chinese online giant, Baidu is also down to report.
April’s retail sales came in flat with March but were still at March’s very high growth rate of an annual 10.7% (which was revised up from the first reported 9.7%).
US analysts suggest that as well as Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s good results are expected from TJX, Ross Stores and especially clothing brands with sales in this group up sharply from a year ago in March.
US housing data is due this week should with April reads on existing-home sales, new residential construction and the NAHB Housing Market Index, plus the latest weekly survey data on mortgage applications are expected
Moody’s economists say that demand for existing housing had moderated in March after slowing somewhat in February. “New residential construction, meanwhile, had bounced back in March after a tough February and was expected to remain solid through the year.”
The Fed releases minutes from its last meeting Wednesday, and there are a number of central bank speakers this week. This is especially important after April’s consumer inflation was hotter than expected.
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A slowish week for major data, earnings, reports in Australia — there’s the Reserve Bank minutes tomorrow, the Wage Price Index Wednesday and the April jobs data on Thursday (see separate story) will underline that the economy is still recovering and is not in a good place quite yet.
On top of the dominant wages and jobs story here there’s also consumer confidence on Wednesday, the preliminary April retail sales figures on Friday (to show a 0.5% gain, according to the AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver) and there’s the early surveys of manufacturing and service sector activity PMIs (also Friday) which are tipped to have remained strong so far in May.
There are some more annual and interim results with today with the latest figures from Australian Agricultural Co, Elders and Incitec Pivot (which has already guided to a very poor result).
Tuesday sees the 2020-21 final from James Hardie and on Thursday the Nufarm half year and Webjet (final).
China’s final economic data for April will be issued today for industrial production, urban investment, retail sales and employment.
The AMP’s Shane Oliver says the figures “are likely to show some further loss of annual momentum as the favourable base effects from the pandemic lockdown drops out of annual data but underlying conditions are likely to have remained solid.”
Tuesday sees preliminary figures that are likely to show that Japan’s economy contracted in the three months to March after that solid rise in the final months of last year.
Moody’s economists say Japanese GDP is forecast to fall by 0.8% quarter over quarter, following the 2.8% expansion in the December quarter – the contraction will be because of the continuing lockdowns in the country. Dr Oliver says the contraction could be as much as 1.1% quarter on quarter.
The early surveys of Japanese manufacturing and services will be released on Friday when the consumer price index for April will also be released.
