The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stark warning that Europe could experience physical shortages of jet fuel as early as June, should the region only manage to replace half of its customary supplies from the Middle East. This assessment comes amidst heightened geopolitical tensions, with the IEA highlighting the risks in its latest monthly report. The International Energy Agency is an intergovernmental organisation that provides policy recommendations, analysis, and data on the global energy sector. It acts as a policy adviser to its member states on energy security.
Europe exhibits the highest dependency on jet fuel from the Middle East, with the region typically supplying around 375,000 barrels per day (bpd), accounting for 75% of Europe’s net jet fuel imports. Globally, jet fuel and kerosene demand averaged 7.8 million bpd in 2025, with Gulf exports representing the largest source to the global market at nearly 400,000 bpd. Within Europe, jet fuel stockpiles vary significantly; Spain, for instance, holds ample stocks and is a net exporter, while Britain, the region’s largest consumer, imports 65% of its demand.
The IEA report stresses that physical shortages and demand destruction at selected airports would emerge if Europe’s jet fuel stocks drop below 23 days of demand cover. European stocks have not fallen below 29 days’ cover since 2020. However, the outlook darkens depending on replacement capacity: if only 75% of Middle East volumes are replaced, insufficient inventory would plague summer months, with stocks potentially dropping below the 23-day critical level by August. A more severe scenario, where only 50% of supply is replaceable, would see stocks hitting the 23-day threshold in June. Full replacement of Middle East imports, conversely, would ensure adequate stock coverage for 2026 demand.
