IGO’s December quarter results have been described as marginally weaker than expected, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker. While there were operational improvements at the Nova operation, these gains were offset by lower-than-forecast mined and processed volumes across the group. The company also continued to face pressure at the group level.
Specifically, Nova showed quarter-on-quarter improvement but still did not meet RBC’s production expectations. This discrepancy led to a revenue miss of $82 million against the broker’s $119 million forecast. Underlying EBITDA also fell short of estimates, coming in at $30 million, which reflects ongoing losses at the Kwinana refinery. IGO is a mining and exploration company focused on metals critical to clean energy. Its operations span nickel, lithium, and copper production across Australia.
At the Greenbushes operation, December-quarter production was generally in line with expectations. However, Peker noted that the operation is trending towards the lower end of its 2025-26 guidance. This is despite the initial ore processing through the CGP3 expansion. Peker characterised this as a “soft reset” of production expectations. Additionally, costs are running higher than guided, a trend that RBC had already incorporated into its financial model.
RBC has maintained its “sector perform” rating for IGO with a price target of $7.50. The analyst suggested that better risk-reward exposure to lithium prices can be found with pure-play lithium producers, rather than diversified operators such as IGO. Shares in IGO were last trading down by approximately 7 per cent.
