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S&P 500 Edges Higher Amid Geopolitical Worries

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ASX futures point up as investors monitor US earnings, Fed meeting.

The S&P 500 inched upward in New York trading, recovering from earlier losses as oil, gold, and silver prices increased amid renewed concerns about a potential US military action against Iran. At 4pm, the index was up 0.03 to 6915.61. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3 per cent, while the Dow Jones declined 0.6 per cent. Australian markets will be closed on Monday for Australia Day, with trading resuming on Tuesday. Local companies, including Woodside Energy, Origin Energy, and Resmed, are scheduled to release quarterly reports next week. Resmed is a global leader in connected healthcare solutions, offering innovative medical devices and cloud-based software applications. Woodside Energy is an Australian petroleum exploration and production company.

The US benchmark index began the day higher following a report from the University of Michigan indicating that US consumer sentiment had reached a five-year high this month. Despite improvements across various demographics, Grace Zwemmer from Oxford Economics noted that the overall consumer sentiment index remains low compared to historical levels. In corporate news, Nvidia shares climbed 1.5 per cent after Chinese officials reportedly allowed Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance to prepare orders for Nvidia’s H200 AI chips. Intel, however, experienced a 17 per cent drop due to a weak outlook, while Microsoft led the ‘magnificent seven’ with a 3.3 per cent gain.

The yen experienced its largest single-day surge in nearly six months in New York, fuelled by speculation that Japanese authorities might intervene in the market to stabilise the currency. Oil prices surpassed $US66 a barrel amidst concerns about potential US military action in Iran and a significant winter storm expected to impact the US. Gold is on track for its biggest weekly gain since 2020, approaching $US5000 an ounce, while silver’s year-to-date increase is nearing 40 per cent. Copper also saw gains, rising above $US13,000 a tonne.

ASX 200 futures suggest a rise of 10 points, or 0.1 per cent, to 8828. Investors are closely watching the upcoming week’s key release of the fourth-quarter CPI and the Federal Reserve policy meeting. The US corporate reporting season is gaining momentum, with particular attention focused on Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Meta, and ExxonMobil. FactSet reported that, of the 13 per cent of S&P 500 companies that have reported actual results for the fourth quarter, 75 per cent have exceeded earnings per share estimates, which is below both the 5-year and 10-year averages. For the first and second quarters of 2026, analysts are forecasting earnings growth rates of 11.2 per cent and 14.5 per cent, respectively. For 2026 overall, analysts project a year-over-year earnings growth of 14.7 per cent.

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