Qantas’ share price has underperformed relative to the broader ASX since fiscal year 2025, but a Jarden analyst believes this trend is poised to reverse. According to analyst Jakob Cakarnis, the Australian aviation market demonstrates a high degree of rationality, which supports both pricing stability and disciplined capacity management. Qantas is Australia’s largest airline and provides domestic and international passenger transportation services. It also operates a freight and logistics business.
Cakarnis suggests that any short-term softening in demand can be effectively managed through strategic capacity adjustments and yield optimisation. He identifies the first half of fiscal year 2026 as a potential turning point for the stock’s performance. While capacity has seen only a slight reduction of 1 per cent in the first half of 2026, this adjustment aims to bolster load factors and revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK), with ticket prices increasingly influencing revenue streams.
Furthermore, declining jet fuel prices could mitigate the impact of higher cost forecasts. Jarden’s forecasts indicate a first-half profit before tax of $1.45 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.43 billion. The underlying profit before tax is projected to reach $2.57 billion, exceeding current estimates by 2.4 per cent.
The brokerage has reiterated its ‘buy’ rating for Qantas shares, setting a 12-month price target of $12.70. However, it acknowledges potential downside risks stemming from a weakening of industry rationality, geopolitical instability, and potential capital expenditure overruns.
