The Trump administration has moved to formalise its renewed push to acquire Greenland, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying he will meet Danish officials next week amid European alarm at the prospect of Washington trying to take control of the world’s largest island.
The talks come days after the US military operation in Venezuela that removed President Nicolas Maduro, and as President Donald Trump has again framed Greenland as a national security priority. Trump has described the island as “so strategic”, claiming Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic means the United States “needs Greenland from the standpoint of national security”.
Denmark’s Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, has urged Trump to “stop the threats”, while Greenland’s leader has described the idea of US control as a “fantasy”. Greenland is a self-governing territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, with around 57,000 people, and was granted expanded autonomy in 2009 — including a legal pathway to hold an independence referendum — although Denmark retains responsibility for foreign and defence policy.
CNBC framed next week’s meeting around four issues: whether the US is contemplating force or purchase, how Europe responds, Greenland’s independence pathway, and the underlying Arctic security logic.
Buy, bluff, or force
Rubio declined to rule out military action when asked directly, saying: “I’m not here to talk about Denmark or military intervention,” while repeating that he would meet Danish officials next week. The White House has confirmed Trump and his national security team are “actively” discussing a potential offer to buy Greenland, while keeping “all options” on the table.
Trump previously floated buying Greenland in 2019 during his first term, and Denmark rejected the idea. Frederiksen has now warned that if the United States attacked another NATO country militarily, “everything stops” — including Denmark’s participation in NATO and the security framework built since the Second World War.
US lawmakers from both parties have also pushed back on the idea of using force.
Europe shifts from quiet diplomacy to public warnings
European leaders who had initially avoided “megaphone diplomacy” have moved to public statements, releasing a joint letter stressing that “the Kingdom of Denmark – including Greenland – is part of NATO,” and that “Greenland belongs to its people”.
A senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, Rasmus Sinding Søndergaard, said European policymakers should prioritise diplomatic engagement in talks with Rubio, backed by stronger political statements, lobbying US officials who oppose military action, and potentially threats of economic retaliation.
He also pointed to a hard reality: Greenland is vast, lightly populated and difficult to defend militarily due to limited infrastructure.
The independence question sitting underneath everything
Polling has previously suggested Greenlanders overwhelmingly oppose becoming part of the United States, while many support eventual independence from Denmark. Greenland’s 2009 self-government act explicitly allows an independence referendum, and most Greenlandic political parties favour independence, though they differ over timing.
Tony Sage, chief executive of Critical Metals — which is developing a rare earth project in southern Greenland — said the independence dynamic is being underweighted in international commentary. He described Greenlanders as “staunch” and argued the key question becomes who benefits most if Greenland does move toward independence.
Arctic security and the argument Trump is making
Trump has argued Greenland is essential to counter Russia and China in the Arctic, saying the island is “covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place”. Analysts accept that Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic has increased, and note missiles aimed at the US could plausibly fly over Greenland.
But critics question why Washington would need full control of Greenland to meet those security concerns. Chatham House’s Marion Messmer has argued the US already has a strategic foothold through its presence at Pituffik Space Base and a longstanding defence agreement with Denmark that allows continued use.
European leaders have also argued Arctic security should be pursued collectively rather than through unilateral territorial claims.
Markets are already reacting in Europe
The Greenland rhetoric is spilling into markets. European defence stocks rose again on Thursday, extending a multi-day rally, after Trump called for a 50% increase in US military spending and floated a US$1.5trn defence budget for 2027. The Stoxx Europe Aerospace and Defense index finished 1.1% higher, with companies including Renk, Leonardo and Rheinmetall posting gains.
European oil stocks moved the other way, with investors weighing the possibility of US companies extracting Venezuelan oil, and Brent crude trading around the low-US$60s a barrel.
What’s at stake
The immediate risk is diplomatic: a NATO dispute involving Denmark and Greenland, with European leaders now signalling that sovereignty and alliance commitments are not negotiable.
The longer-term stakes are strategic and economic: control over Arctic positioning, access to emerging shipping routes as ice retreats, and influence over critical minerals that matter for defence systems and clean-energy supply chains.
Next week’s Rubio meeting is unlikely to settle any of that. But it is shaping up as a moment where allies try to find out whether Trump’s Greenland push is leverage, a genuine purchase attempt, or something more coercive — and what Europe can realistically do if Washington refuses to draw clear red lines.
