ANZ is anticipating the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain current interest rates at its upcoming meeting next month, despite acknowledging that inflation remained at an “uncomfortably high” level throughout the latter half of 2025. Adelaide Timbrell, an economist at ANZ, suggests the RBA board’s February decision will be a closely debated one, with the possibility of a rate increase on the table. ANZ is one of Australia’s largest banks, offering a range of financial products and services to retail, commercial, and institutional customers. The bank operates across Australia, New Zealand, and the Asia Pacific region.
Timbrell highlighted that recent price data from November indicates that quarterly inflation figures are likely to align sufficiently with the RBA’s previous forecasts. This alignment is expected to be a critical factor influencing the central bank’s decision to keep rates steady. The economist’s assessment hinges on the belief that the forthcoming inflation data will support the RBA’s existing outlook.
“The Q4 trimmed mean inflation outcome is likely to be close enough to the November statement on monetary policy’s forecast for interest rates to remain unchanged,” Timbrell stated. This statement underscores the importance of the upcoming inflation data in shaping the RBA’s monetary policy stance. The market will be watching closely to see if the data confirms ANZ’s prediction and the RBA’s current trajectory.
Should the RBA follow through with holding interest rates steady, it would signal a continuation of its current strategy to manage inflation without further tightening monetary policy. This decision would likely be welcomed by borrowers and businesses, providing some stability amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
