Markets are starting the new week with a mild risk-on tone, even after the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The key point for investors is that, for now, this looks like a geopolitical shock that doesn’t materially change the near-term economic story.
On Wall Street, the first trading day of 2026 ended mixed but steady. The S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 6,858.47, supported by strength in semiconductor stocks. The Dow added 0.66% to 48,382.39, while the Nasdaq dipped 0.03% to 23,235.63 after being much stronger earlier in the session.
Chipmakers did much of the heavy lifting — Nvidia rose more than 1% and Micron surged more than 10%. By contrast, some software names were weaker, and Tesla fell more than 2% after fourth-quarter deliveries missed expectations. The broader backdrop: US equities had a strong 2025, led by tech and AI themes.
Locally, futures point to the S&P/ASX 200 opening about 11 points or 0.13% higher.
Oil and Venezuela: why crude isn’t spiking
Oil is the immediate transmission channel — but analysts don’t expect a major move. With crude around US$60 a barrel and the market seen as oversupplied in the March quarter, Venezuela’s production — about 800,000 barrels a day, under 1% of global supply — is viewed as manageable even if disrupted.
There’s also a longer-dated twist: if sanctions were eventually lifted and foreign capital returned, analysts say Venezuelan exports could rise materially over time — potentially increasing supply rather than tightening it.
Economic data
This week’s spotlight is macro. The market is bracing for the US non-farm payrolls report and Australia’s monthly CPI print — data that could shape expectations for the next moves in borrowing costs.
