Australian economists anticipate a slight increase in the nation’s economic activity when the September quarter national accounts are released at 11:30 am AEDT. Market expectations point to a 0.7 per cent rise in gross domestic product (GDP) for the quarter, resulting in a 2.2 per cent increase year-on-year. This is compared to the figures from the June quarter, which showed a 0.6 per cent quarterly rise and a 1.8 per cent annual increase. Should the predictions hold true, it would represent the strongest annual growth since early 2023.
In November, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) projected that GDP would reach 2 per cent by December, revising its previous estimate of 1.7 per cent. Jimmy Tran, dealing manager at Moomoo Australia, suggests that the GDP data could significantly impact the market, especially following what is expected to be a strong opening. Moomoo Australia is an online trading platform providing investment tools and resources.
However, Tran also noted potential risks. “After last week’s higher-than-expected inflation data, a weaker reading on overall growth could spark fears of stagflation, and potentially weigh on share prices,” he says. Stagflation is a period of slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment (stagnation) at the same time as rising prices (inflation).
Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com, indicates that the upcoming data release may challenge current market expectations and induce volatility in both the ASX 200 and the AUD/USD exchange rate. Capital.com is an online trading platform offering access to global financial markets.
