Economist Nouriel Roubini has outlined an optimistic outlook for the US economy in 2026, detailing three potential scenarios. In a recent analysis published via Project Syndicate, Roubini expressed confidence in a baseline scenario where the US experiences a brief period of below-trend GDP growth, followed by a recovery and a gradual decrease in inflation, targeting the US Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent objective. He referred to this projection as a ‘Goldilocks scenario’.
Roubini suggests that a robust recovery by mid-2025 could be fuelled by several key elements. He highlighted the potential impact of reduced interest rates and fiscal stimulus measures. Furthermore, strong household and corporate balance sheets, more accessible financial conditions, and the positive effects of investments related to artificial intelligence are expected to contribute to economic improvement.
Roubini also anticipates that inflation may reach its peak and subsequently decline in the coming year. This expected decrease is attributed to the waning base effects of tariffs and the potential for technology-driven productivity gains. These gains could lead to cost reductions and enhanced efficiencies across various sectors.
It is important to note that this outlook is one of several scenarios considered by Roubini, and economic forecasts are subject to change based on evolving conditions. The US Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. Its responsibilities include regulating financial institutions, managing the nation’s money supply, and striving to keep employment high and prices stable.
