Morningstar analysts believe Macquarie Asset Management’s $5.20-a-share indicative bid for Qube is likely to succeed. The offer price is considered “attractive”, representing a 30 per cent premium above Qube’s standalone fair value. Macquarie Asset Management is the asset management arm of Macquarie Group, offering investment solutions to clients across a range of asset classes. Qube is an Australian logistics and infrastructure company.
According to senior equity analyst Adrian Atkins, the Qube board’s intention to unanimously recommend the deal signals the strength of Macquarie’s offer. Atkins noted that the proposal “marks the likely disappearance of a well-managed, fast-growing Australian business from the market.” However, he also acknowledged that the substantial premium makes the offer difficult for shareholders to reject.
Morningstar anticipates minimal regulatory hurdles. The analysis points to only minor overlap between Macquarie’s current port operations and Qube’s businesses. They also foresee no significant concerns from the Foreign Investment Review Board.
Following the conclusion of exclusive due diligence on February 1, Morningstar expects Macquarie to formalise a binding offer. Subsequently, Morningstar has adjusted its fair value estimate to align with the bid price of $5.20. The offer is subject to reduction by any dividends paid. Morningstar anticipates Qube may release additional franking credits through a special dividend before the transaction is finalised.
