Australia’s unemployment rate is on the rise as the government-driven jobs boom tapers off, placing the onus on the private sector to stimulate further growth. This is according to Deloitte Access Economics’ November 2025 Employment Forecasts. Market-sector hiring, encompassing various private industries, now accounts for the majority of new jobs for the first time since December 2022. This trend marks a reversal of the post-COVID surge in public-sector employment. Deloitte Access Economics provides economic forecasting and advisory services to businesses and governments. They deliver insights and analysis to help clients make informed decisions.
Overall employment growth has seen a marked slowdown. The Australian economy added 81,500 jobs over the past six months, a significant drop compared to the 151,300 jobs created in the preceding half-year. David Rumbens, a Partner at Deloitte Access Economics, expressed concern over this decelerating trend. “Even with 42,200 people gaining work in the month of October 2025, job gains for the last six months have totalled just 81,500 workers…This is a concerning trend and shows just how steep the slowdown in hiring has been for the labour market,” Rumbens said.
White-collar job growth registered a modest 0.8 per cent increase in 2024-25. Blue-collar employment is projected to decline by 0.3 per cent in 2025-26. Human services roles, supported by the health care and education sectors, are forecast to grow by 2.9 per cent in the coming year. Employment in central business districts, particularly in Brisbane and Melbourne, is expected to recover as consumer spending and business profitability improve.
Deloitte has warned that the current slowdown presents a challenge for the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA must carefully navigate the dual mandate of maintaining full employment while managing inflation. Early indications from the US suggest that the adoption of artificial intelligence may negatively impact junior roles, although its potential impact in Australia remains uncertain. Rumbens cautioned that any disruption caused by AI could materialise more rapidly than previous technological shifts.
