Anticipation of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has diminished significantly after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a delay in publishing its October jobs report. Financial markets reacted swiftly to the news, prompting a reassessment of monetary policy expectations among investors and traders. The delay introduces uncertainty into the economic outlook, influencing market sentiment.
According to data from CME futures trading, the probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut at the December policy meeting has fallen sharply. Shortly after 2pm New York time, the implied probability dropped to 33.6 per cent. This figure represents a considerable decrease from 50 per cent the previous day.
A month prior, market pricing had almost fully priced in a rate cut, with probabilities near 94 per cent. The substantial adjustment reflects growing doubts about the urgency for monetary easing. Investors will be closely monitoring any further announcements regarding the jobs report and other economic indicators for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next move.
