The global economy has demonstrated resilience despite significant strains from various shocks, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva indicated a forecast of only a slight deceleration in global growth for this year and 2026. The IMF is an international organisation that works to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world. It achieves this primarily through economic surveillance, lending, and technical assistance.
Georgieva noted that the US economy had avoided a recession that many experts had anticipated just six months prior. She attributed the relative strength of the US and other economies to improved policies, a more adaptable private sector, less severe import tariffs than initially feared, and supportive financial conditions. These factors have contributed to a more stable economic environment than previously expected.
In a preview of the IMF’s upcoming World Economic Outlook, Georgieva stated, “We see global growth slowing only slightly this year and next. All signs point to a world economy that has generally withstood acute strains from multiple shocks.” The IMF had previously raised its global growth forecast in July by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0 per cent for 2025 and by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1 per cent for 2026. A revised outlook is scheduled for release next Tuesday during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington.
Despite this relative stability, Georgieva cautioned that the world economy is performing “better than feared, but worse than needed.” The IMF forecasts global growth of approximately 3 per cent over the medium term, which is considerably lower than the 3.7 per cent forecast before the COVID-19 pandemic. She also highlighted the existence of deep undercurrents of marginalisation, discontent, and hardship globally, and pointed to an array of risks facing the global economy. Uncertainty remains exceptionally high and continues to increase, leading to a surge in demand for gold, a traditional safe-haven asset for investors, with holdings of monetary gold now exceeding 20 per cent of the world’s official reserves.
