The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) reporting season is showing signs of strain, according to Morgans investment strategist Tom Sartor, with markets quick to punish even marginal earnings misses. With 75 per cent of the ASX 50 having reported by Friday, and approximately half of profitable ASX 300 industrials still to release their results, the season’s trends are under scrutiny.
Sartor noted a deterioration in “beat versus miss trends” over the past week, a common occurrence as the reporting season winds down. Domestic-facing companies are receiving stronger support compared to those with offshore franchises, the latter feeling the impact of tariffs and geopolitical factors, leading to pockets of top-line weakness. Share prices, according to Sartor, continue to outpace reported earnings, a trend that has slightly worsened since the previous week.
Several companies stood out with notable beats, including ResMed, Suncorp, Super Retail, and Life360, while others, such as CSL, James Hardie, Sonic Healthcare, AGL Energy, Seven Group, and Light & Wonder, missed market expectations. Sartor highlighted the extreme volatility in large caps, noting that ASX 50 stocks have experienced falls of 10 per cent or more on results day 15 times in the past nine years, with six of those instances occurring in 2025 alone.
FY26 industrial earnings forecasts have been cut by about 2.1 per cent, a significant increase from the -0.6 per cent recorded the previous week. This adjustment comes even as the forward multiple of the ASX 200 Industrials index sits at 22.3, approximately two standard deviations above its long-term average, signaling potential concerns about valuations. CSL is a global biotechnology company that develops and delivers innovative medicines. Suncorp Group is a financial services provider offering insurance, banking, and wealth management solutions.
