Shares in Guzman y Gomez (GYG) plummeted 18.2 per cent to $23.70 at 10.25am AEST, hitting a 52-week low of $23.26 earlier in the session, marking its lowest price since listing. This sharp decline followed an earnings result that significantly missed analyst expectations. RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Toner highlighted that underlying earnings of $52.8 million were 7.5 per cent below RBC’s forecasts and 3.1 per cent below consensus estimates. Guzman y Gomez is an Australian fast-food chain specialising in Mexican cuisine. The company recently listed on the ASX after a successful IPO.
The primary concern for investors, according to Toner, was the comparable sales growth in the Australian segment for the first seven weeks of the 2025–26 financial year. The reported growth of 3.7 per cent was substantially lower than RBC’s forecast of 7.9 per cent and the consensus forecast of 7.6 per cent. This significant shortfall has prompted concerns about the company’s growth trajectory in its core market.
Toner also pointed to a weak margin outlook, with the Australia segment’s underlying earnings to network sales projected to be between 5.9 and 6.3 per cent, compared to the consensus forecast of 6.3 per cent. Furthermore, the US segment underperformed, with a full-year earnings loss of $13.2 million, missing both RBC and consensus estimates by approximately 32 per cent.
As a result of these misses, Toner anticipates that analysts will revise down their comparable sales forecasts for the Australian segment for the current financial year. The significant underperformance against expectations has triggered a reassessment of the company’s near-term prospects among market analysts.
