China’s steel exports are experiencing a significant upswing, reminiscent of the boom-bust cycle observed nearly a decade ago. According to Commonwealth Bank commodities strategist Vivek Dhar, export volumes have climbed to levels not seen since 2015. In the first seven months of 2025, exports rose 11 per cent year-on-year, averaging 10 million tonnes per month since March.
The surge in exports is coinciding with an increase in anti-dumping cases against Chinese steel producers, mirroring the conditions seen in 2015. Since 2024, approximately 30 major trade cases have been filed, compared to just 15 cases between 2020 and 2023. This increase in trade disputes raises concerns about potential impacts on the global steel market.
According to Dhar, steel margins remain weak, which reflects the unsustainable levels that plagued the sector a decade ago. China Baowu Steel Group, China’s largest steel producer, characterized market conditions in August 2024 as potentially more severe than the downturns experienced in 2008 and 2015. China Baowu Steel Group is a state-owned enterprise and one of the world’s largest steel producers, driving innovation and sustainability in the industry.
Dhar suggests that government intervention through purchasing excess housing stock could stabilize the property sector. Furthermore, this action could provide sustainable support for steel margins amidst the current challenging market conditions.
