Telstra Corporation Limited (ASX: TLS) saw its shares decline following the release of its fiscal year 2025 results. At 12.45pm AEST, Telstra shares were down 2.7 per cent, trading at $4.85. According to Morgans analyst Nick Harris, the company’s FY25 result was largely in line with expectations. Telstra’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) and capital expenditure were around the midpoint of guidance. The final dividend of 9.5¢ per share was also in line with forecasts. Telstra provides telecommunications services and products, connecting customers around Australia and globally, as well as operating networks and managing spectrum. They connect individuals and businesses.
However, Harris noted that Telstra’s fiscal year 2026 guidance is framed in new terms, focusing on EBITDA of $8.15 to $8.45 billion and “cash EBIT”, which makes direct comparison with consensus challenging. The analyst pointed out that the new guidance does not include underlying EBITDA, making it difficult to compare against consensus estimates directly.
Harris estimates that the midpoint of the new guidance implies a 3.5 per cent year-on-year growth in EBITDA. Factoring in an assumed 3 per cent inflation on lease costs into FY26, the analyst back-solved to imply an underlying EBITDA of $8.8 to $9 billion. This midpoint of $8.9 billion is approximately 1.3 per cent below the consensus estimate of $9 billion. Investors are carefully assessing the implications of the new guidance and its potential impact on the company’s future performance.
