According to Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, investment linked to artificial intelligence contributed approximately half a percentage point to US GDP growth in the first half of 2025. Tombs noted that the aggressive capital expenditure plans of major technology companies suggest a similar boost in the coming quarters. This AI-driven investment has provided a notable, albeit potentially overstated, stimulus to the American economy.
However, Tombs also cautioned that assessing the overall impact of AI on productivity in real time is challenging. He stated that historical precedent suggests the impact is currently small, with the primary benefits likely to materialise over decades rather than just a few quarters. This long-term perspective is crucial when evaluating the true economic influence of AI technologies.
Furthermore, Tombs highlighted that a significant portion of computer and communications equipment purchased in the US is imported, meaning it does not contribute to net GDP growth. Despite this, he estimates that without AI-related spending, GDP growth in the first half of the year would have been a mere 0.6 per cent, significantly lower than the reported 1.1 per cent. He said big tech’s plans to continue spending aggressively on AI over the next few years suggest a similar boost over the rest of 2025 and into 2026.
Tombs concludes that while AI-related spending provides a visible boost, investment in other sectors of the economy is considerably weaker than headline figures indicate. The underlying investment landscape, therefore, is softer than the AI-driven numbers might suggest.
