AGL Energy’s 2025 fiscal year earnings have fallen short of expectations, prompting a significant drop in share value. RBC Capital Markets analyst Gordon Ramsay highlighted a miss on margins and a disappointing outlook for the year ahead. AGL is an Australian energy company focused on providing gas and electricity. It operates a diverse power generation portfolio including thermal generation, renewable sources, and gas storage facilities.
Underlying EBITDA reached $2.01 billion, which is 6 per cent below RBC’s forecast of $2.13 billion. The underlying profit of $640 million was also 7 per cent under estimations. Ramsay attributed the results to higher-than-expected costs, weaker wholesale electricity prices due to contract resets, and lower thermal generation availability in the second half of the year. The analyst also noted that AGL’s FY26 guidance range has disappointed, with potential for FY26 EBITDA and NPAT to fall below the FY25 results.
AGL has guided to FY26 EBITDA of $1.92–$2.22 billion and NPAT of $500–$700 million, versus FY25’s $640 million. The company anticipates increased Customer Markets earnings due to improvements in margin and growth. However, these gains are expected to be offset by gas margin compression, higher operating costs, and an increase in depreciation, amortisation, and finance costs related to investment in growth assets.
While the final dividend of 25 cents a share met AGL’s 50 per cent payout ratio, Ramsay expressed concern over management’s comment that it “intends” to continue paying fully franked dividends, noting that RBC had expected more clarity on the payout range. Shares in AGL plummeted 12.9 per cent to $8.90 at 3pm AEST, after hitting an intraday and 52-week low of $8.70.
