Global approvals for coal-fired power plants surged in 2024, reaching their highest level since 2015, driven primarily by demand in China and India, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). In China alone, construction began on approximately 100 gigawatts of new coal plants during the year. Despite environmental concerns, coal remains a primary energy source for many nations and accounts for 45% of energy-related emissions.
According to a new report from Wood Mackenzie, global coal demand may remain stronger for longer than anticipated. Their ‘high coal demand’ case suggests coal-fired power generation could dominate through 2030, significantly altering the timeline for the global energy transition. Anthony Knutson, Wood Mackenzie global head of thermal coal markets, stated that this delay in phasing out coal would occur during a critical decade for climate action as countries grapple with energy security and affordability.
Wood Mackenzie’s base-case projects a nearly 70% decline in coal-fired power generation between 2025 and 2050. However, the ‘high coal demand’ scenario forecasts coal generation averaging 32% higher than the base case through 2050. This alternative scenario implies less renewable and gas energy deployment and a significant reduction in global wind, solar, energy storage, and natural gas capacity.
Wet weather and incidents at Australian mines negatively impacted export volumes in the March quarter 2025, down 9.7% from the March quarter 2024. A recent report from the Department of Industry, Science and Resources (DISR) anticipates a recovery in Australian exports throughout 2025 as these disruptions subside. While declining Chinese demand presents a potential risk, growth in exports to India and Southeast Asia could mitigate this risk.
