A top United Nations trade official is warning that President Trump’s tariff policies could trigger a “cascade” effect across the slowing global economy if the steepest trade taxes are enacted. Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary General of UNCTAD, cautioned that tariffs on trading partners worldwide could lead to job losses and instability, particularly in less developed nations where exports may plummet by over half. UNCTAD, the leading arm of the United Nations focused on trade and development, reports that Trump’s policies are already disrupting global supply chains and creating new costs.
Grynspan highlighted the uncertainty paralyzing business decisions, impacting trade and leading to downward revisions in global GDP forecasts. UNCTAD had previously released data showing global investment at financial crisis levels and forecasts a 0.5% reduction in global growth this year, lowering the global GDP forecast to 2.3% from 2.8%. The organisation monitors investment flows and helps developing countries integrate into the global economy.
Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia, which previously benefited from the “China Plus One” supply chain strategy, are now facing impacts as supply chains shift again, according to Grynspan. She also pointed out that the layering of tariffs will disproportionately affect the least developed nations, potentially leading to a reduction in exports of over 50%. Cambodia’s exports to the U.S., for instance, represent more than 10% of its GDP, and tariffs could erase over $4.5 billion in exports over the next four years.
Grynspan also addressed the inflationary challenges arising from disruptions in the Red Sea, where attacks on freight vessels have increased. She noted that the Red Sea situation alone could add 0.6% to global prices, further straining the global supply chain. According to Grynspan these deals are complex and take time to complete, and the current uncertainty is impacting economic growth and investment.
