World leaders have begun arriving in the Canadian Rockies for the 51st G7 summit, a meeting that was supposed to centre on energy security, infrastructure investment and digital transformation—but now finds itself eclipsed by war in the Middle East and the return of Donald Trump.
Set in the remote mountain town of Kananaskis, Alberta, the three-day gathering was designed by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to be low on conflict and high on cooperation. Instead, it is shaping into one of the most fraught G7 meetings in recent memory.
Middle East dominates
Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure on Friday—and Iran’s swift retaliation—have blindsided several world capitals and hijacked the summit’s agenda.
“We do have longstanding concerns about the nuclear program Iran has. We do recognize Israel’s right to self-defence, but I’m absolutely clear that this needs to de-escalate,” said British Prime Minister Keir Starmer en route to the summit. The UK has sent RAF aircraft and military reinforcements to the region. “There is a huge risk of escalation for the region and more widely,” he warned.
European leaders are expected to press Trump on his “peace soon” remarks and urge greater clarity on the US position. Macron, Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz are working behind the scenes to establish a coordinated line on Iran, though divisions persist. Japan has publicly condemned Israel’s actions as “deeply regrettable,” while Germany has taken a more supportive stance.
As host, Carney has ruled out issuing a joint communique—an early concession to the reality that consensus may be difficult, if not impossible, to achieve.
Trump’s return and the tariff threat
Trump, whose first term was marked by walkouts, tariffs and public spats with allies, returns to the G7 stage with similar unpredictability. He is scheduled to arrive late Sunday, with bilateral meetings expected before the summit officially begins Monday.
His decision to impose—and then pause—sweeping tariffs on G7 countries has left allies on edge. A 90-day tariff reprieve expires July 9. While the UK has secured a trade deal to ease duties on steel, aluminium and autos, other countries remain exposed.
“Trump doesn’t like the big round table as much as he likes the one-on-one,” said Peter Boehm, a veteran of six G7 summits. But those one-on-one meetings can be unpredictable. Trump has previously used them to berate the leaders of South Africa and Ukraine, and reportedly pushed baseless claims of “genocide” against white farmers in recent meetings.
Former Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chrétien warned fellow leaders not to rise to provocation. “He tends to be a bully,” Chrétien said. “If Trump has decided to make a show to be in the news, he will do something crazy. Let him do it and keep talking normally.”
51st state rhetoric and sovereignty signals
Trump’s repeated suggestions that Canada should become the 51st US state have infuriated Canadian officials. In May, Carney publicly rejected the idea—“Canada is not for sale … ever”—during an Oval Office meeting. The issue has placed Starmer in an awkward position, with some Canadians criticising him for not pushing back more forcefully.
“I’m not going to get into the precise conversations I’ve had,” Starmer said when asked if he had confronted Trump directly. “But let me be absolutely clear: Canada is an independent, sovereign country and a much-valued member of the Commonwealth.”
Macron, in a thinly veiled rebuke, stopped in Greenland on his way to Canada. He met with local and Danish leaders aboard a helicopter carrier and reiterated that “this is not what allies do,” referring to Trump’s past ambitions to purchase the Danish territory.
Ukraine and a fractured West
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will attend the summit and is expected to meet with Trump—just months after their last encounter ended in a public dressing-down. Trump, who has maintained private communication with Russian President Vladimir Putin, has shown little enthusiasm for escalating sanctions on Moscow.
The EU and UK have already announced fresh penalties. But without US backing, efforts to tighten the oil price cap or pressure non-aligned countries like India and China may falter.
“Europe’s fear is that the conflict is quickly spiralling out of control,” said one EU official, referring to both Ukraine and Iran. “And the US position keeps shifting.”
A summit without centre
Beyond the immediate crises, Carney’s original agenda—focused on energy security, critical minerals and wildfire resilience—has been largely sidelined. With no final communique expected, leaders will issue shorter, targeted statements on less contentious issues.
New attendees this year include German Chancellor Merz, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and British PM Keir Starmer. Australia’s Anthony Albanese will meet Trump to discuss the AUKUS submarine deal and US tariffs, amid uncertainty over Washington’s long-term commitment. India’s Narendra Modi is also expected to hold talks with Carney despite diplomatic strains over a 2023 assassination in Canada.
The summit’s expanding guest list—India, Brazil, South Korea, South Africa, the UAE and others—signals a shift in tone. Carney has framed the meeting as an opportunity to forge “the partnerships of the future.” But for many, the present feels perilous enough.
Not what allies do
The G7 was originally conceived as a crisis response mechanism. This week, it is being tested on that front.
“Is this still a family?” asked Max Bergmann of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Or just an awkward reunion?”
