UN censure, uranium escalation and partial US evacuations heighten Middle East tensions
President Donald Trump has warned that a “massive conflict” in the Middle East “could very well happen,” as US officials brace for a possible Israeli strike on Iran amid the collapse of nuclear talks and a sharp rebuke from the UN nuclear watchdog.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Thursday formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations — the first such finding in nearly two decades — prompting Iran to announce the creation of a third uranium enrichment site and the upgrade of existing facilities. In response, the US began pulling nonessential personnel from embassies in Baghdad, Kuwait and Bahrain, with Trump citing the need to protect American lives.
“We have a lot of American people in this area. And I said, we gotta tell them to get out because something could happen — soon,” Trump said. “And I don’t want to be the one that didn’t give any warning and missiles are flying into their buildings.”
Collapse of nuclear diplomacy
Trump has repeatedly said he wants a deal with Iran to end its uranium enrichment programme, a stance far stricter than that of previous US administrations. The key sticking point remains Tehran’s insistence on its right to enrich uranium for civilian use — a right it says is guaranteed under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Earlier this year, Trump expressed optimism about the prospects of a deal. But on Wednesday, he said he was “less confident” than before, accusing Tehran of “delaying.” His envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, is due to hold a sixth round of nuclear talks with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oman on Sunday.
Iran, for its part, has refused to halt enrichment, which the IAEA says has reached 60% purity — a short step from weapons-grade. Iran’s leaders say the programme is peaceful, but warn of “forceful and destructive” retaliation if attacked.
Israeli strike looming?
Trump has publicly stated that Israel “could very well” strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israeli officials, according to US and European sources, are ready to act with or without US support. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Mossad chief David Barnea are set to meet Witkoff before Sunday’s talks.
Tehran claims it was warned by a “friendly country” of Israel’s intentions and has begun military preparations, including missile tests and expanded exercises. “If Israel attacks, it will be met with a history-making response,” said Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Hossein Salami.
Iranian Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said all US bases in the region are “within reach” and would be targeted in the event of conflict.
Fallout from IAEA resolution
The IAEA’s censure — backed by 19 of 35 member states, including the US, UK, France and Germany — declared Iran in non-compliance with its safeguards agreement, citing a lack of credible answers over undeclared nuclear material and activities. The motion raises the prospect of a referral to the UN Security Council, which could reinstate broader international sanctions.
In retaliation, Iran said it would activate a new enrichment facility at a secure site and install sixth-generation centrifuges at the Fordow facility. It has also threatened to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty altogether.
Trita Parsi, vice president of the Quincy Institute, warned that direct Iranian retaliation against US assets would mark a dangerous escalation. “If the Iranians make true on their threats to target American bases, this is going to end up becoming a very, very devastating confrontation,” he said.
Economic and regional implications
Despite the mounting tension, Iran’s economy remains surprisingly stable. The Iranian rial held steady this week, and vendors in Tehran report no signs of panic — though inflation remains high and sanctions continue to isolate the country.
